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NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Temple Owls Week 7

by - 10/14/2015

Temple Owls defensive lineman Praise Martin-Oguike

It's time for the seventh edition of the NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report. It's the fourth year Doc's Sports has done this article. The goal of this weekly piece is to attempt to show that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. For the mid-major betting report, we follow one team throughout the season and make selections on their games on a weekly basis. Temple was picked this year because of the intrigue surrounding the conference as well as their ability to have a breakout season. Thus far, Temple has exceeded all expectations and is breaking out in a big way. The Owls enter week seven at a perfect 5-0 on the year.

Through the first three years of the mid-major betting report, we had some tremendous results. In those three years combined, the selections went 18-12, and the profit for $100 per game bettors was $1,590. Last year's report was a whole different story. We followed the Akron Zips last season, and I simply couldn't get a good read on that team. The result was a 3-8 season with a loss of $1,180.

I'll follow Temple Owls beat writers and listen to the team's press conferences. I'll also look for important information about the team on Twitter from a variety of sources. There will be a selection at the end of each article on the game. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

The Temple Owls dominated the Tulane Green Wave 49-10 last week. Temple led 21-10 at halftime, but the Owls broke the game wide open with a 21-0 third quarter run. Temple's defense shut down Tulane's running game all game long. Tulane finished the game with a measly eight yards rushing! In all, Tulane had a grand total of 110 total yards. Temple's defense continued to be amazing on third down. Tulane converted on only two of their 15 third-down-conversion attempts.

Temple's offense had 345 yards in the game. P.J. Walker had an efficient game as he went 11 for 15 for 183 passing yards and two touchdowns. Even more importantly, he didn't throw any interceptions. Temple's running game didn't have much success, and that's an area that the team will want to work on moving forward. The Owls ran the ball 46 times but could only average 2.7 yards per carry.

Last week's 2-Unit selection on Temple -16 cashed in big. The line movement late in the week actually went toward Tulane, but it was the Owls who covered the number.

Notes of Interest

-Mike Kern, columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer, wrote about Temple not overlooking UCF this Saturday night. While UCF is 0-6 on the year, the Knights beat down Temple 34-14 last year in Orlando. Temple trailed 17-0 after one quarter in that game. Two years ago, Temple nearly pulled off a massive upset over UCF before the Knights came back to win (UCF eventually beat Baylor in their bowl game that year. Temple is 0-2 against UCF, and because of that Matt Rhule isn't concerned about his team looking past the Knights. Star linebacker Tyler Matakevich also reflected on Temple's inability to finish out the year last year. The team started 4-1 last season before losing five of their next six games. Matakevich said the team looked at that in the offseason and they said it's a mistake they won't make again.

-How good has this Temple defense been on third down? Temple's opponents have converted on just 18 of their 73 third-down-conversion attempts. In general, that's a sign of a very good defense.

-UCF Head Coach George O'Leary stepped down as interim Athletic Director at UCF this week. He will continue to coach the football team. Up until this week, O'Leary had been performing both jobs this season.

-How much more popular is this Temple team getting? Temple announced earlier this week that they have already sold out the Oct. 31 matchup against Notre Dame. Director of Athletics Dr. Robert Kraft said, "The energy and buzz surrounding our football program has never been greater."

Betting Trends

-UCF is 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games overall.

-Temple is 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.

-The Owls are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 October games.

-The 'under' is 4-1 in Temple's last five home games.

UCF vs. Temple College Football Odds

5Dimes opened this game at Temple -20.5, and the line was quickly bet up to Temple -22. Over the course of the week thus far, the line has edged back down to Temple -21.5. The posted total opened at 45 points but has since moved down to 44.

UCF vs. Temple College Football Picks

This is a tricky game to handicap. UCF comes into this game 0-6 on the year, but after they were embarrassed last weekend at home against UConn, it wouldn't totally surprise me to see them give a much better effort against an unbeaten Temple team. Still, I wouldn't want to trust UCF after the way they have played early in the year. Instead, I'm going to make a small play on the under in this one since I believe both defenses are stronger than the offenses.

Pick #121- 1-Unit- Play on UCF/Temple under 44

Season Results- 4 Wins 2 Losses (+$370)

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