NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Temple Owls Week 6

by Aaron Smith - 10/7/2015

Time for the Week 6 edition of the college football mid-major betting report. This is the fourth year Doc's Sports has done this article. The goal of this weekly piece is to attempt to show that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. For the mid-major betting report, we follow one team throughout the season and make selections on their games on a weekly basis. Temple was picked this year because of the intrigue surrounding the conference as well as their ability to have a breakout season. So far, it has been a breakout season for the Owls.

The Temple Owls are now 4-0 on the season. They played in a torrential downpour last Friday night in Charlotte, but it didn't stop the team from moving to 4-0. The excitement continues to build surrounding this program that is clearly on the rise.

Through the first three years of the mid-major betting report, we had some tremendous results. In those three years combined, the selections went 18-12 and the profit for $100 per game bettors was $1,590. Last year's report was a whole different story. We followed the Akron Zips last season, and I simply couldn't get a good read on that team. The result was a 3-8 season with a loss of $1,180.

I'll follow Temple Owls beat writers and listen to the team's press conferences. I'll also look for important information about the team on Twitter from a variety of sources. There will be a selection at the end of each article on the game. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

Temple defeated Charlotte 37-3 in the driving rain last week. The Owls led just 10-3 at halftime, but they ran away with it in the second half. The box score doesn't make much sense here. Despite winning by 34 points, Temple was actually outgained 354-322. Normally, that would mean that the opposition turned it over a bunch of times. In this case though, Temple and Charlotte each had one turnover.

One big key in this one was Charlotte going just 4 for 17 on third-down-conversion attempts. Temple has done a great job all year at clamping down in crucial spots.

If there was one area that was a bit disconcerting for Temple, it was the fact that Charlotte averaged 5.1 yards per carry. That's a bit surprising since Temple clearly knew the 49ers were going to run it often. Still, it was a very good performance by the Owls in some ugly weather.

I don't normally make two plays, but in last week's report I played both Temple -23.5 and 'under' 45. Both of them cashed in for a nice winning night. Temple -23.5 was a two-unit winner, while under 45 was a one-unit win.

Notes of Interest

-Marc Narducci, columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer, had an interesting piece this week about Temple linebacker Tyler Matakevich being on the verge of 400 career tackles. Matakevich currently sits at 392 tackles, which means he could certainly hit 400 this weekend. Matakevich said he doesn't even think about the mark, rather he is concerned about the Owls defense giving up too many big plays so far this year. Only two other players have ever reached 400 tackles in Temple football history.

-This week's game at home against Tulane is Homecoming for the Owls. Last year, Temple won an ugly 10-3 contest against the Tulane Green Wave. On Homecoming last year, Temple won, but they didn't play well. Coach Matt Rhule is reminding his team of that this year, and he hopes the emotions of playing back at home don't hurt the team (Temple has been great on the road this year).

-Temple's defense has been very good so far this year, but one area where they haven't excelled is forcing turnovers. Temple has intercepted only two passes and recovered two fumbles so far this season. Opponents have put the ball on the ground eight times, but Temple has recovered just two of them.

-Tulane has given up 35 points per game so far this year. The Green Wave lost a lot of key players from last year's defense, and they are still trying to find their footing on this side of the ball. Tulane's secondary has allowed opposing quarterbacks to have a quarterback rating of 134.03 so far this year. Compare that to Temple's defense allowing a quarterback rating of just 109.45.

Betting Trends

-Temple is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.

-Tulane is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.

-The under is 5-1 in Temple's last six games.

Tulane vs. Temple College Football Odds

Temple opened as a 15-point favorite at home in this one. The Owls have caught some money, and now they are a 16-point favorite here. The posted total opened at 49 points, and it has slowly shifted down to 48.5 points.

Tulane vs. Temple College Football Picks

Tulane lost 37-7 at home against Duke in their season opener. The Green Wave then lost by 55 points to Georgia Tech on the road. Tulane's win at home last week against UCF isn't as impressive as it looks on the surface, because UCF is a total mess right now. Temple's defense should suffocate Tulane in this one, and the Owls should be able to make things work both in the passing game and the running game. This is a fair price to lay with the home team.

Pick #324- 2-Unit- Play on Temple -16

Season Results- 3 Wins 2 Losses ($170)

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