NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Temple Owls Week 3

by Aaron Smith - 9/16/2015

Time for the Week 3 edition of the college football mid-major betting report. This is the fourth year for this article at Doc's Sports. The goal of this weekly article is to attempt to show that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. For the mid-major betting report, we follow one team throughout the season and make selections on their games on a weekly basis. Temple was picked this year because of the intrigue surrounding the conference as well as their ability to have a breakout season.

Temple has started the season 2-0, and this is the most excitement there has been around this football program in an extremely long time. The Owls went to Cincinnati and beat a team that was the favorite to win the American Athletic Conference. It was a unique win, as you'll find out in more detail below, but a win over a conference favorite on the road is a huge win. The Owls look to keep the momentum going this weekend.

Through the first three years of the mid-major betting report, we had some tremendous results. In those three years combined, the selections went 18-12 and the profit for $100 per game bettors was $1,590. Last year's report was a whole different story. We followed the Akron Zips last season, and I simply couldn't get a good read on that team. The result was a 3-8 season with a loss of $1,180. Looking to get back on track this year!

I'll follow Temple Owls beat writers and listen to the team's press conferences. I'll also look for important information about the team on Twitter from a variety of sources. There will be a selection at the end of each article on the game. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

Temple went to Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats 34-26. A closer look at the box score and statistics in this game paints a very unique picture. Temple was outgained by Cincinnati 557 yards to 296 yards. Cincinnati had 34 first downs compared to Temple's 13 first downs. How did Temple win the game? Cincinnati had five turnovers in the contest compared to only one for Temple.

Temple certainly doesn't need to feel guilty for winning a game like this, because if you have a +4 turnover margin in a game, you deserve to win. At the same time, there were some concerning signs from the Temple offense. P.J. Walker threw for only 81 yards on 20 pass attempts. That kind of number isn't going to get it done very often. Additionally, the Temple defense allowed Cincinnati to convert on 7 of their 11 third-down-conversion attempts.

The thing that impressed me the most was Temple's ability to stay on track after a historic win over Penn State in Week 1. The Owls didn't have a letdown as many expected.

Last week's play on the 'under' 55 looked golden when the score sat at 10-6 at halftime. The second half went a lot different, and the game edged 'over' the posted total, so last week's selection was a loss.

Notes of Interest

-Dan McQuade, writer at Philadelphia Magazine, wrote about Temple being on being No. 26 in the Associated Press weekly poll. When was the last time Temple was ranked? At the end of the 1979 year, when they finished ranked No. 17 in the nation. If Temple wins this week, there is a good chance they'll move into the AP Top 25 next week.

-Temple dominated special teams play in last week's win over Cincinnati, which was another reason for their win. Jahad Thomas ran the opening kickoff in the second half back for a touchdown. Temple then completed a successful onside kick as well.

-Senior Tyler Matakevich now leads the nation in career tackles with 375. Matakevich has 20 tackles in the team's first two games this year. Matakevich had two interceptions in last week's game, and he had three sacks in the season-opening win against Penn State. He's a tremendous leader, and the Owls will continue to feed off his energy moving forward.

-Temple plays at UMass this weekend before the Owls have a bye next week. UMass was drilled last weekend at Colorado, but the Minutemen are a much-improved team in the past couple years, and they return 19 starters from last year. UMass is led by star quarterback Blake Frohnapfel (first-team All Mid-American Conference last year).

Betting Trends

-Temple is 4-0 against the spread in their last four September games.

-UMass is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

-The under is 12-5 in Temple's last 17 September games.

-The over is 4-0 in UMass' last four September games.

Temple vs. UMass College Football Odds

Temple opened as a 12.5-point favorite in this one. The underdog has taken some money throughout the week, and Temple is now a 10.5point road favorite. The posted total opened at 49 points. Here's where the big line move has occurred. The total has jumped all the way to 55 points.

Temple vs. UMass College Football Picks

The UMass Minutemen allowed a bad Colorado team to run for 390 yards on them last week. Temple's running game has been solid so far this year. The Owls have 11 sacks on the season thus far, and UMass has had issues with their offensive front in the past two seasons. The Minutemen are unlikely to be able to keep Frohnapfel on his feet all game long. As long as Temple stays focused, I think this is a game they win comfortably. Because they are coming off two big wins, I'm keeping this as a small play on the road favorite.

Pick #111 - 1-Unit Play: Take Temple -10.5

Season Results- 1 Win 1 Loss (-$20)

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