NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Temple Owls Week 12

by Aaron Smith - 11/18/2015

The Week 12 edition of the NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report is set to go! It's year No. 4 for this article at Doc's Sports. The goal of this weekly piece is to attempt to show that specialization can be a profitable betting strategy. For the mid-major betting report, we follow one team throughout the season and make selections on their games on a weekly basis. Temple was picked this year because of the intrigue surrounding the conference as well as their ability to have a breakout season.

They have broken out in a big way this season, but they are coming off a loss last weekend in South Florida. Matt Rhule's team didn't finish strong last year. Temple has done a lot so far this year, but they don't want to fall flat at the end of the season and lose all the momentum the program has worked so hard to build.

In the first three years of the mid-major betting report, we had some tremendous results. In those three years combined, the selections went 18-12 and the profit for $100 per game bettors was $1,590. Last year's report was a totally different story. We followed the Akron Zips last season, and I never got a good read on the Zips. The result was a 3-8 season with a loss of $1,180.

I'll follow Temple Owls beat writers and listen to the team's press conferences for interesting points to bring up in these articles. I'll also use a variety of sources to look for important information about the team on Twitter. There will be a selection at the end of each article on the game. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

Temple was blown out 44-23 by USF last week. There were a bunch of issues for Temple in that game, but the single biggest was unquestionably their inability to stop the run. Marlon Mack ran for 230 yards and a ridiculous 11.0 yards per carry in the game. Quinton Flowers became the third straight quarterback to hurt Temple on the ground. Flowers had a huge 42-yard run at a key moment in the game, and he averaged five yards per carry. Overall, USF had 326 yards on the ground. Early in the year, Temple's defensive front was great against the run, but they weakened considerably in recent games.

P.J. Walker threw for 259 yards in the game, but it took him 48 passing attempts to reach that mark. Obviously, 5.4 passing yards per attempt isn't an efficient passing game. On the other side, Flowers averaged 10.5 passing yards per attempt.

Temple's ground game broke a couple big plays, but they weren't consistent enough overall. The Owls averaged 3.9 yards per carry in last week's game.

My selection on USF +3 from last week's report was a winner.

Notes of Interest

-John Smallwood, writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, had an interesting article this week on the Temple bandwagon and the USF loss being only a small bump in the road. Smallwood says, "The first rule of a bandwagon is that you do not jump off, especially when what looks like an engine failure might just be a blown spark plug." He says Temple fans still have plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Temple can still be in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game by winning their last two regular-season games. That is no small task given how impressive the league has been this year. Smallwood makes the case that if Temple can win three games in a row now, the Owls would have a very solid chance at a New Year's Six bowl game.

-This Saturday's game between Memphis and Temple at Lincoln Financial Field isn't quite as big as it could have been if the two teams hadn't had a disappointing last couple weeks, but the game still means a lot in the AAC race. Memphis is coming off back-to-back losses. They lost at home to Navy in a really disappointing showing two weeks ago. Last week, Memphis outplayed Houston and appeared to have the game won, before the Cougars stormed back to win by a point as Memphis narrowly missed a long field goal as the clock expired.

-Marc Narducci, Philadelphia Inquirer writer, asked whether Temple has lost its mojo in a recent column. In his press conference this week, Matt Rhule said, "Anytime you lose, you have to get the edge back, and I'm not sure as a team we have the same edge." Rhule did point out he believes it isn't equal for all players though. He mentioned P.J. Walker as a guy who he believes is playing his best football of the season. Walker said this week, "We play our best when our backs are against the wall." While some openly question whether the team has ever responded to the last-minute loss to Notre Dame, both Nate Smith and Tyler Matakevich said the problem isn't the loss to Notre Dame still hanging over the team.

Betting Trends

-Memphis is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games following a loss.

-Memphis is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.

-Temple is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

-Temple is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.

-The 'over' is 9-4 in Memphis' last 13 games.

Memphis vs. Temple College Football Odds

Memphis opened as a two-point favorite at most books. This line has been very steady overall, but the Tigers are currently a 1.5-point favorite at most books. The real movement has been in the total. The total for this one opened at 64.5 points and has been bet down to a current level of 59.

Memphis vs. Temple College Football Picks

Memphis might be a better football team than Temple, but the Tigers are also in a difficult spot here. Memphis' loss last weekend to Houston was a heartbreaker. That is the type of game that can lead to hangover in the next game. Temple's defense has been hurt badly in recent weeks by mobile quarterbacks. While Paxton Lynch is a very good quarterback, he's not a mobile guy. I'm not sure of Temple's confidence level now, so I'm going to keep this at a small 1-Unit play on the Owls.

Pick #350- 1-Unit- Play on Temple +1.5

Season Results- 7 Wins 4 Losses (+$550)

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