NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Temple Owls Week 10

by Aaron Smith - 11/4/2015

The10th edition of the NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report is ready to go! It's year No. 4 for this article at Doc's Sports. The goal of this weekly piece is to attempt to show that specialization can be a profitable betting strategy. For the Mid-Major Betting Report, we follow one team throughout the season and make selections on their games on a weekly basis. Temple was picked this year because of the intrigue surrounding the conference as well as their ability to have a breakout season. It's been the ultimate breakout season so far for Temple! College Gameday was in Philadelphia last weekend for the Notre Dame vs. Temple game. A couple years ago, the mere thought of College Gameday featuring a Temple game would have been nothing more than a pipe dream.

In the first three years of the mid-major betting report, we had some great results. In those three years combined, the selections went 18-12, and the profit for $100 per game bettors was $1,590. Last year's report was a totally different story. We followed the Akron Zips last season, and I simply couldn't get a good read on that team. The result was a 3-8 season with a loss of $1,180.

I'll follow Temple Owls beat writers and listen to the team's press conferences for interesting tidbits. I'll also use a variety of sources to look for important information about the team on Twitter. There will be a selection at the end of each article on the game. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

The aforementioned huge game at home last week against Notre Dame was a really strong showing by Temple, but they fell just short. I couldn't help but feel badly for the team as they played their guts out only to see Notre Dame score a game-winning touchdown right before the end of the game.

Notre Dame outgained Temple 467 yards to 295 yards. Temple made a fourth-quarter push and took a 20-17 lead on an Austin Jones field goal with 4:45 left, but Notre Dame scored the game-winning touchdown with 2:09 left on the clock. Temple once again won the turnover battle by forcing two turnovers and committing only one.

Notre Dame was the first team to be able to consistently run the ball on Temple. The Fighting Irish averaged 5.4 yards per carry. This is really understandable. Notre Dame has the best offensive line that Temple will face this year.

The Temple offense converted two key fourth-down-conversion attempts, but overall they had a tough time getting going against the Fighting Irish. Temple's P.J. Walker was just 13 for 30 passing for 188 yards. The Owls gained only 3.3 yards per carry in the game.

Last week's 1-Unit selection on 'under' 50 points was a winner.

Notes of Interest

-Temple will have a little less time to recover and prepare for this week's game. After playing a primetime game on Saturday night, they travel to SMU to take on the Mustangs this Friday.

-Mike Kern, writer for the Philadelphia Daily News, wrote about the team's need to shake off the Notre Dame loss. Matt Rhule spoke openly about his concern that the team might not be dealing well with the "hangover" from the Notre Dame loss. Rhule said he was a raving maniac in the team's first practice after that loss. He said, "I don't know if our team is over it yet (the loss) and that's a scary thought." The Owls goal at the beginning of the season was to win the AAC, and that is still completely attainable.

-Temple suffered several key injuries last week. Center Kyle Friend is out for this weekend's game and is out indefinitely with an undisclosed injury. Running back Jahad Thomas is listed as questionable for Friday's game at SMU. Offensive tackle Ventell Bryant is also questionable for this game.

-The Temple Owls were ranked No. 22 in the first College Football Playoff Rankings released Tuesday night. Two other AAC teams are in the Top 25. Memphis is No. 13 and Houston is No. 25.

Betting Trends

-Temple is 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games following a loss.

-The under is 7-3 in the Owls last 10 games.

-SMU is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

-The Mustangs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.

-The "over" is 13-6 in the Mustangs last 19 games.

Temple vs. SMU College Football Odds

Temple opened as a 14-point road favorite in this one. The line slowly inched down to Temple -13 early in the week, but it has since risen right back up to Temple -14. The posted total opened at 58.5 points. There has been some serious movement here! The total has now dipped all the way to 51 points. A 7.5-point move isn't seen very often even in the volatile college football totals market.

Temple vs. SMU College Football Picks

If it were earlier in the week, and the posted total was still sitting at 58.5, I would have been taking the under. However, with the total all the way down to 51 points, I see no value on that side. SMU's defense is awful. Where will Temple's mind be? It's hard to gauge how the team will respond after that heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame. There are too many unknowns for me. You don't have to make a pick on a game you don't have any confidence about, and I'm taking my first pass of the season on this one.

No Play on This Week's Game

Season Results- 6 Wins 4 Losses (+$450)

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