NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Temple Owls Bowl Game

by Aaron Smith - 12/18/2015

The final edition of the NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report is ready to go! We're finishing up the fourth year for this article at Doc's Sports. The goal of this weekly piece is to attempt to show that specialization can be a profitable betting strategy. For the mid-major betting report, we follow one team throughout the season and make selections on their games on a weekly basis. Temple was picked this year because of their ability to have a breakout season. The Owls broke out in a big way, and that has helped this weekly article be much more entertaining to write about, and I hope readers have enjoyed this piece throughout the season as well. This week we get to talk about Temple's bowl matchup.

In the first three years of the mid-major betting report, we had some tremendous results. In those three years combined, the selections went 18-12 and the profit for $100-per-game bettors was $1,590. Last year's report was a totally different story. We followed the Akron Zips last season, and I never got a good read on the Zips. The result was a 3-8 season with a loss of $1,180.

I've been following Temple Owls beat writers and listening to the team's press conferences for interesting points to bring up in these articles. There is a selection at the end of each article on the game. We use the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which allows readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

Temple played a bad first half against Houston, and they ended up never being able to recover from that in their 24-13 AAC title game loss to the Cougars. Temple was able to win some games this year almost solely because of how well they took care of the ball, but the opposite happened against Houston. Temple turned it over twice, while Houston didn't turn it over at all.

The Owls finished with 385 yards of total offense to Houston's 339, but Temple found the end zone only once. Temple got behind early and was forced into throwing the ball a lot more than they likely would have chosen to otherwise. P.J. Walker threw for 287 yards, but he put it in the air 44 times. Robby Anderson starred in the Owls defeat. Anderson had 12 receptions for 150 yards and a touchdown.

In our last article, I spoke about my concern about Temple's defense being hurt by running quarterbacks. Greg Ward Jr. did indeed beat this Temple defense in a big way with his legs. Ward Jr. ran for 148 yards on only 17 carries. That's good for an average of 8.7 yards per carry.

The selection from last game was Houston -6, and that one cashed in nicely. That makes five straight winning selections.

Notes of Interest

-Temple was selected to play in the Marmot Boca Raton Bowl against the Toledo Rockets. This game will be played on Dec. 22.

-Toledo will be coached by new head coach Jason Candle after former coach Matt Campbell was hired by Iowa State to be the head of that program. Candle is working with a short-handed staff since several of the Toledo assistant coaches left with Campbell for Iowa State.

-Temple's Matt Rhule had his name come up in a bunch of different openings, but Rhule ended up signing a new six-year deal with Temple. Rhule already had a contract through 2021, but he received a raise and commitments regarding new facilities for the program in the new contract.

-Mike Jensen, Philadelphia Inquirer writer, put together an article about how much all the hard work Tyler Matakevich has put in has paid off during his time at Temple. Matakevich has racked up all sorts of awards in the past couple weeks. Most impressive was Matakevich winning the Chuck Bednarik award as the Defensive Player of the Year in all of college football this year. Matakevich didn't think he'd win, so he didn't even prepare a speech. Matakevich deserves every single good thing that has happened to him. This is a guy who has worked extremely hard for four years. Coach Matt Rhule even said Matekevich didn't miss a single practice in four years. That's insane. Matakevich has been the leader of this defense for four years, and he is the single biggest reason for the team's turnaround. Hard work still pays off, and Tyler Matakevich is a great example of it.

Betting Trends

-Toledo is 11-2-2 against the spread in their last 15 games overall.

-Toledo is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.

-Temple is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.

-Temple is 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.

-The 'under' is 8-3 in Toledo's last 11 games.

-The under is 5-2 in Temple's last seven games.

Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Temple College Football Odds

Large line moves are common this time of the year, but there has been no big move here at least to this point. Temple opened as a one-point favorite, and they are still favored by a point across the market. The posted total opened at 52.5 points, but it has been bet down to a current level of 51.

Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Temple College Football Picks

It's tough to gauge how a team like Toledo with a new coach and different assistants will play in a game like this. My slight lean on the side would probably be Temple, but Toledo has proven themselves as a very talented team, and I don't really want to go against them. Instead, I'm going to go with a total. Taking the under in Temple games this year has helped the record for this article be a very good one this season. I'm going to take the under one last time. Toledo's rushing attack is good, but it has been rushing quarterbacks that have hurt Temple the most, and Toledo doesn't have one of those. The Toledo defensive front is very good, and Temple might struggle to run here. At 52.5, it would have been a two-unit play, but at the current number, it's a one-unit selection. I'll take under 51 for a one-unit play to finish the year off.

Pick #215- 1-Unit- Play on Toledo/Temple under 51

Season Results- 10 Wins 4 Losses (+$950)

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