NBA Odds and Predictions: Wednesday, March 11 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/10/2015
At this point, I don't care which other games are on League Pass opposite Oklahoma City, even if it's my favorite team: I'm tuning in to watch Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook. His triple-double assault continues in what could be a nice matchup against the Clippers' Chris Paul -- if Paul, who is beaten up, even plays. Westbrook is averaging 34.3 points, 10.2 rebounds and 11.4 assists since the All-Star break. Here's a look at that game and the rest of Wednesday's slate.
Kings at Hornets (TBA)
Charlotte enters Tuesday holding down the final playoff spot in the East, and I believe that the Hornets get it over the likes of Miami, Boston or Brooklyn. The Hornets had a five-game winning streak end Monday, 95-69 at home to Washington. Charlotte shot 32.5 percent in tying its lowest-scoring game of the season. Sacramento is clearly dragging on an eight-game road trip as it has lost the past four, allowing at least 112 points in each game. The Kings were blasted 130-105 in Atlanta on Monday. DeMarcus Cousins was held to 12 points on 3-for-9 shooting. This is the first meeting of the season between the Kings and Hornets.
Key trends: The Kings have covered only four of their past 19 against teams with a losing record. The Hornets are 5-1 against the spread in their past six games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. The "over/under" has gone over in the Kings' past six vs. the East.
Early lean: I'm not really sure why a TBA here. It could be due to the off chance Kemba Walker returns from his injury for Charlotte. I think the Hornets roll regardless.
Bulls at 76ers (+6.5, 188.5)
Down three of their best players, the Bulls are starting to feel it as they have dropped three straight games by at least 10 points each. They were beaten 101-91 at home by Memphis on Sunday. The only bright spot was the 43rd double-double of the season for Pau Gasol, tying his career high. Chicago hasn't dropped four in a row yet this year. There's a slight chance Taj Gibson returns here. Philly ended a four-game slid with a pretty stunning 92-84 home win over Atlanta on Saturday -- well, not stunning if you read these stories. That was a huge letdown game for the Hawks. The 76ers rallied from a 16-point hole to win for just the second time in 11 games. It helped that Atlanta rested three starters. The Bulls lead the season series with the Sixers 1-0.
Key trends: The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 4-0 in the past four in Philly.
Early lean: Sixers and under.
Grizzlies at Celtics (+5, 194.5)
Memphis won by 10 in Chicago on Monday in Game No. 2 of a four-game road trip. Marc Gasol had 23 points on 10-for-16 shooting. The Grizzlies improved to 16-6 with Jeff Green in the starting lineup. Boston has won three of four and took a 100-90 decision in Miami on Monday as Isaiah Thomas had 25 points off the bench. He took a nasty fall in the final minutes but should play. Avery Bradley has missed three straight games and is targeting this game to return.
Key trends: Memphis has failed to cover seven straight vs. teams with a losing record. Boston is 6-0-1 ATS in its past seven at home. The Grizzlies are a crazy 13-1 ATS in their past 14 in Boston.
Early lean: Grizzlies and under.
Nets at Heat (TBA)
Second of a back-to-back for Brooklyn, which hosted New Orleans on Tuesday. I fully expect Miami to be short-handed here because center Hassan Whiteside surely will be suspended at least one game for a cheap flagrant foul on Boston's Kelly Olynyk in Monday's 100-90 Heat home loss. Whiteside was ejected for the second time in the past four games. Miami played that game without Udonis Haslem and big addition Goran Dragic. Both are called day-to-day. Miami is 3-0 vs. Brooklyn this season.
Key trends: The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their past six on the road. The under is 7-1 in their past eight in the second of a back-to-back. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings.
Early lean: Wait on Whiteside and Dragic.
Magic at Bucks (TBA)
Orlando played in Indiana on Tuesday. Center Nik Vucevic was expected to play after missing the previous two games with an ankle injury. Milwaukee lost for the fifth time in six games Monday, 114-103 at home against the Pelicans. There were two bright spots for Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo had a career-high 29 points and Michael Carter-Williams 25, his most since joining the Bucks in a trade. O.J. Mayo sat out for the sixth time in seven games with right hamstring soreness.
Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 7-3 in the past 10.
Early lean: Bucks will win this one.
Clippers at Thunder (-5, 213.5)
Los Angeles ended a two-game slide with an 89-76 home win over Minnesota on Monday. DeAndre Jordan had 20 points and 17 rebounds. The Clips were without an injured Jamal Crawford (and Blake Griffin again), and Paul was very clearly nowhere near 100 percent with a bruised knee (don't be shocked if he sits this out). The Thunder beat Toronto 108-104 behind another absurd game from Westbrook: 30 points, 17 assists and 11 rebounds. OKC also got back center Steven Adams from an eight-game injury absence. The Clips and Thunder have split two meetings.
Key trends: The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.
Early lean: Thunder and under.
Hawks at Nuggets (+6, 210)
Atlanta crushed visiting Sacramento 130-105 on Monday to become the first team in the league to 50 wins. The 130 points were a season high and the 20 made 3-pointers were a franchise record. Atlanta shot 60.2 percent overall and 55.6 percent from long range. Denver has been much more competitive under interim coach Melvin Hunt, improving to 3-2 with Monday's home blowout of the Knicks. Under Hunt, the Nuggets have scored 100 or more points in all five games. Center Jusuf Nurkic took part in the morning shootaround but is still out because of a sprained right ankle.
Key trends: Atlanta has covered two of its past nine vs. teams with a losing record. The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their past nine at home. The under is 6-1 in Denver's past seven at home.
Early lean: Atlanta and over.
Timberwolves at Suns (-4, 209.5)
Minnesota lost by 13 at the Clippers on Monday, the Wolves' 12th straight defeat in that series. Adreian Payne got the start in place of Kevin Garnett (rest) and had 16 points and 15 rebounds. Andrew Wiggins had 11 points on 5-for-16 shooting. Phoenix has lost two straight by double-digits, albeit to NBA title favorites Cleveland and Golden State. Brandon Knight left Monday's loss to the Warriors with an ankle injury, so he's questionable. After seeing it, I don't think he plays. The Suns are 2-1 vs. the Wolves, all three games high-scoring.
Key trends: The Wolves are 5-0 ATS in the past five in Phoenix. The over is 4-1 in Phoenix's past five following a double-digit home loss.
Early lean: I think Knight sits so I'll take the points. Go over regardless.
Pistons at Warriors (-14.5, 207.5)
Detroit was at the L.A. Lakers on Tuesday. Golden State has won four straight games, each by at least eight points. The Warriors blasted the Suns in Phoenix on Monday behind 36 points from Steph Curry -- 25 in the second half. It was Curry's 13th 30-point game of the year. Golden State scored 33 points off 18 Phoenix turnovers. It's the first time in franchise history that the Warriors have reached 50 wins in 62 games. The Warriors won by 11 in Detroit on Nov. 30.
Key trends: The Warriors have covered only two of their past 13 vs. the East. The under is 4-0 in Golden State's past four at home. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings.
Early lean: Hate giving that many points, but with Detroit playing Tuesday I will. Go over.
Rockets at Trail Blazers (-3, 207.5)
Portland's first game since losing heart-and-soul Wesley Matthews for the season went about as expected: a flat 121-113 defeat at Minnesota on Saturday. Damian Lillard had 32 points, eight assists and seven rebounds for Portland, which had won five straight. As expected, Arron Afflalo got the start for Matthews and had 14 points. Houston won a second straight Saturday, 114-100 in Denver. James Harden had 28 points as the Rockets ended a three-game road skid. Houston and Portland have split two meetings.
Key trends: Houston is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 6-1 in the past seven in Portland.
Early lean: Blazers and over.
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