NBA Odds and Predictions: Thursday, April 9 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 4/8/2015
Hard as it is to believe, this Thursday is the final one of the 2014-15 NBA regular season, and the lone two matchups are on TNT as usual. You are really going to see teams benching their key guys for the final six days of the regular season, at least those that don't have anything to play for. The Bulls largely don't on Thursday night -- they are going to be the No. 3 or 4 seed -- and the Warriors definitely don't. But neither Chicago nor Golden State might want to rest key guys because their opponents are still fighting for playoff position; or in the Heat's case simply trying to get in. I'm not sure what the NBA could ever do about coaches resting guys this late in the season. Here's a look at both games.
Bulls at Heat (+1, 191)
Chicago was in Orlando on Wednesday night. The big question was whether Derrick Rose was going to return for that from his meniscus surgery. If he did, and as of this writing it looks as if he was going to, the Bulls almost surely aren't going to play him in the second of a back-to-back. Playing Wednesday and not Thursday would give him four regular-season games to get in a bit better game shape for the postseason. Maybe this latest surgery is just what Rose needed as he's supposedly pain-free in the knee now. He showed occasional signs of returning to dominating form before going down, but Rose also shot just 40.7 percent from the floor overall and often settled for long jumpers. He is hitting just 28.7 percent from long range, one of the worst marks in the NBA.
Miami ended a four-game losing streak and started a four-game homestand with a 105-100 win over Charlotte on Tuesday. Goran Dragic had 28 points -- his most since joining the Heat -- and Luol Deng, who was questionable, had 21. Also questionable for the Heat were Udonis Haslem Hassan Whiteside and Chris Andersen, but they all played. I would imagine they would here, too, as the Heat face a must win, currently a half game behind Boston for the East's final playoff spot. Mario Chalmers (flu) played despite needing two liters of intravenous fluid pregame.
The Bulls and Heat have split two meetings thus far, and I feel pretty confident this will be the last one because I don't see a playoff series between them. On Dec. 14 in Miami, the Bulls won 93-75. Rose did play in that one and had 14 points. Mike Dunleavy led the Bulls with 22 and Jimmy Butler added 17. Chicago center Joakim Noah missed the game with a sprained ankle, and I absolutely could see him taking this game off to rest him his knees for the playoffs. Miami's Chris Bosh missed his first game of the season in that one. On Jan. 25 in Chicago, the Heat won 96-84. Whiteside had 14 points, 13 rebounds and 12 blocks for his first triple-double. Dwyane Wade had 26 points. Rose had 19 but was 0-for-6 from 3-point range. Dunleavy missed the game.
Key trends: The Bulls are 0-5 against the spread in their past five in the second of a back-to-back. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their past four vs. teams with a winning record. The "over/under" has gone under in the past four meetings.
Early lean: Seems like a letdown game for the Bulls after the hoopla of getting Rose back. Go Miami.
Trail Blazers at Warriors (-9, 209.5)
Portland hosted Minnesota on Wednesday as a huge favorite and with Coach Terry Stotts saying he wasn't going to rest anyone. Might he here? Portland sill perhaps could get up to No. 3 in the West, but I think is probably locked into the fourth seed. It wouldn't surprise me if a key guy or two gets this game off. It's the start of a season-ending four-game homestand for the Warriors, and I actually think they will care about this game because they would like to avoid their first three-game losing streak of the season. If you read my Tuesday preview, I picked New Orleans against the Warriors on Tuesday simply because of the desperation level, and the Pelicans did win 103-100. Steph Curry's tying 3-pointer at the buzzer went in and out. The Warriors have lost two straight four times this season, the last time coming on Jan. 27 (vs. Chicago) and 30 (at Utah).
Golden State leads the season series 2-0, winning both in the Pacific Northwest, and looks for its third all-time sweep of Portland. On Nov. 2, the Warriors won 95-90. Klay Thomson had 29 points and hit the go-ahead bucket with 8.9 seconds left. Curry made free throws the rest of the way for the final margin. LaMarcus Aldridge had 26 points and 13 rebounds to lead the Blazers. On March 24, the Warriors won 122-108 when the Blazers were without Aldridge (left hand injury), Nicolas Batum (lower back injury), Chris Kaman (right shoulder strain) and Wesley Matthews (out for season now). Curry had 33 points and 10 assists as the Warriors clinched their first Pacific Division title since the 1975-76 season. Damian Lillard had 29 points for the Blazers. The Warriors own a combined plus-21 scoring advantage in the second half against Portland this season.
Key trends: Portland is 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 7-3 in the past 10. The over is 6-1 in the Warriors' past seven at home.
Early lean: Wait and see who is playing, but I love the over.
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