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NBA Handicapping: Major Betting Story Lines to Keep an Eye On

by - 10/27/2015

Kevin Durant of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Now that the NBA season is finally here, bettors can begin to add basketball into their mix of weekly gambling. If you are one of those bettors that does not follow the NBA during the offseason or who got caught up in the NFL over the last two months, you might have a few things to catch up with before jumping right into lines and odds. A couple of things might be different in the basketball world for the upcoming 2015-16 NBA season, and bettors need to understand the landscape before assuming certain teams are still good or that others still live in lottery land. Let's take a look at biggest storylines heading into the year and figure out how they will impact bettors going forward.

Kevin Durant's Uncertain Health : Most people in the NBA world-fans and pundits alike-seem to be penciling in Oklahoma City as a contender in the Western Conference. And while during most seasons that assessment may be true, 2015 could be different. Kevin Durant will be entering the year coming off two foot surgeries for the same injury. Even though most experts are not talking about it, the former MVP might not ever be the same. Foot injuries are notoriously difficult to come back from, and Durant's body holding up for the entire season is not a certainty.

Betting Impact : OKC's futures odds will be the main thing impacted by potential injuries. The team's daily lines may not be inflated because when the Thunder are healthy, they are very good. The betting trouble lies in the fact that windows close all the time in the NBA, and Oklahoma City may never win a title.

Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans : For people that do not follow the NBA on a regular basis, Anthony Davis is still an unknown commodity. The New Orleans center, however, had a breakout year last season as he inserted himself in the MVP race, he carried the Pelicans to 45 wins and a playoff appearance and is expected the next great NBA player according to nearly every basketball pundit in the world.

Betting Impact : Davis went from MVP sleeper pick earlier in the offseason to second in the betting odds. Last season New Orleans produced the fourth-best ATS record in the league (better than Golden State and San Antonio). Expect Davis and the Pelicans to make a lot of noise covering spreads this year.

Steve Kerr's Absence In Golden State : Warriors' coach and inspirational guru Steve Kerr recently underwent back surgery and is expected to miss regular-season time with the team. In general that is not a huge loss because Golden State has a team of assistants and players that know the system. However, an unexpected loss here or another there could push the defending champions closer to the pack in a brutally-competitive Western Conference where every win counts.

Betting Impact : This minor bump shouldn't impact Golden State's long-term prospects, but what it will do is sneak into the everyday lines for the early part of the year. The NBA is a grind, and staying focused early in the third quarter on a random Tuesday night in November or December is where Kerr's coaching and inspiration will be missed. Be cautious on Golden State's daily lines for a while.

Cleveland's Massive Payroll and Expectations : Every year there are massive expectations for LeBron James, but the 2015-16 season may be the toughest he's ever faced. For Cleveland the upcoming season will be NBA title or bust. Team ownership spent a massive amount of money to keep its roster together and will be facing a nearly $115 million payroll this year. James' legacy is on the line, and another Finals appearance and loss may do more harm than good. The Cavaliers are loaded with talent, and if they stay healthy now is the time to win a championship.

Betting Impact : The Miami Heat turned into a juggernaut during James' second year in South Beach. Many NBA experts are predicting the same outcome for his second year back in Cleveland. What bettors should watch out for, however, is the team's ATS record. The Heat only covered 52 percent of their games during that championship year and were never a great ATS bet. The same thing could happen in Cleveland, so do not get caught up in the hype of SU wins.

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