MLB Series Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions 6/1/2015

by Dave Schwab - 6/1/2015

San Diego Padres Starting pitcher James Shields

The MLB regular season kicks off the month of June with a number of great matchups on Monday's slate, but I am taking things a step further with some series predictions with the help of Bovada's series prices for the games over the next three days.

The following is a brief handicapping breakdown and free picks for my top three series prices for this week's action.

Atlanta Braves (+100) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)

The Braves earned a 2-2 weekend split with San Francisco with solid victories in their last two games as underdogs as part of this 10-game NL West swing. Before that, they lost two of three to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Atlanta is an even 25-25 on the year, but it has done a good job at winning series against teams with losing records. Left-hander Alex Wood should get the start in Monday's Game 1. He is coming off two quality outings against the Dodgers and Miami.

Arizona returns home from a six-game road trip in which it went 2-4 against St. Louis and Milwaukee. The Diamondbacks are now 23-26 on the year with a losing 11-13 record at home. They have had no problem getting runners across the plate this season with a National League-high 233 runs in 49 games, but their pitching has given them up in bunches as well with a staff ERA of 4.21 that is ranked 12^th in the NL. Archie Bradley will be on the mound in Game 1, and his ERA stands at 5.28. Josh Collmenter is penciled in for Tuesday, and he is sporting a 5.05 ERA. This sets the stage for a play on the Braves this week as slight series underdogs

New York Mets (+100) vs. San Diego Padres (-130)

New York continues to battle Washington for the top spot on the NL East behind a record of 28-23. Last week, the Mets followed up a three-game sweep of Philadelphia by losing two of three to Miami this past weekend. This will be the first meeting this season against the Padres. Coming into Game 1 as a slight +104 underdog, the Mets are a costly 4-15 this season as when they do not close as favorites.

San Diego has gained some traction lately with 5-3 record in its last eight games, including a 2-2 series split against Pittsburgh this past weekend. It is now 25-27 on the year with 14-10 record on the moneyline when closing as a favorite. This series could come down to a Game 3 matchup between New York starter Dillon Gee and the Padres' James Shields. I would have to give the edge to Shields in this one with a perfect 6-0 record through his first 11 starts. San Diego has won eight of its last 10 games with the right-hander as its starter, and I look for that trend to continue to pick up another series win at home.

Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) vs. San Francisco Giants (-125)

The Pirates brought a six-game winning streak into its extended four-game series against the Padres, and following the split they are 26-24 on the year. Pittsburgh boasts the second-best team ERA in the NL at 3.04, and they will have Gerrit Cole on the mound in Game 1 to try and gain the early edge. The right-hander is 7-2 this season through 10 previous starts with a 2.11 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09. Pittsburgh has been listed as a -140 road favorite for this game.

San Francisco is just a half-game in back of the Dodgers in the NL West at 30-22 on the year following the split with the Braves. Overall, the Giants have been one of the hotter teams in the NL lately with a 13-4 record in their last 17 games, and they are now +$877 in their total moneyline return for the year. They could get tripped up in Game 1 as +130 underdogs at home, but the betting trends are in their favor with a 15-6 record this season when closing as underdogs. One of the big reasons why I still like San Francisco's chances to win this series is its 7-3 record in its last 10 home games.

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