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MLB Handicapping: Betting Ramifications of Marlins Manager Change

by - 5/22/2015

Giancarlo Stanton Miami Marlins

Jack McKeon famously took over the Marlins in 2003 when the team was at 16-22, and they went on to win the World Series. It was the glory days for the Marlins franchise. When everything went south this year and the team found themselves at 16-22 again, they did the only thing they could have - they fired their manager. Will it work again? Has the World Series been all but wrapped up? I'm more than a little skeptical. If they were able to start winning, though, they could deliver some nice profits for bettors.

So, let's take a look at the state they are in:

Mike Redmond was doomed: It could have happened now, or it could have happened later, but it was inevitable - Redmond was going to lose his job. The former catcher was making his major league managerial debut with the Marlins, and in the final year of his three-year deal he had not shown real progress. A .428 winning percentage won't keep you employed, and somehow he had managed to do his worst job this year when he had his best team to work with. Sometimes you just have to pull off a bandage quickly and deal with the pain. Removing a manager who was clearly not getting through to his players in a meaningful way isn't a bad idea - at least not if it is managed well.

Dan Jennings is an insane risk: The issue, of course, is that replacing Redmond was not handled well. Or at least not logically. Dan Jennings is respected in baseball after a long career in scouting and management. As a general manager in Miami since 2013, he had done some good things. The worst possible thing he could have done, though, is think that making himself manager was a good idea.

The guy never played baseball, and short of a brief stint coaching a high school in Alabama he has never been a coach or manager, either. There is a chance he could be a fine manager. This is not the situation for him to find out, though. It's a crazy risk when what this team clearly needs is a firm, experienced hand to show them where they are going wrong. To go from Redmond, who hadn't managed in the majors, to Jennings, who hadn't managed at all, is just crazy.

The bullpen is just awful: The Marlins are tied for the league lead in blown saves and don't exactly shine in any other way you want to measure the bullpen, either. Now it's not like the starters are perfect - Mat Latos, in particular, has been bad. The rotations have been much better than you would guess by this record, though. It's just not good enough, and it's hard to believe that it can get any better in a real hurry.

How can they be this bad with those two bats?: Dee Gordon is leading the majors in batting average, though not by nearly as much as he was after a 3-for-25 slump in recent days. Bazillionaire Giancarlo Stanton is tops in the pros in RBIs and second in the NL in home runs. Those guys are more than carrying their load. What is remarkable, then, is that despite that there are 18 teams that have scored more runs than they have. The offense isn't the entire problem by any means. However, with the team struggling defensively, a better offensive showing could cover up some issues and add some more wins. The problem is that there doesn't seem to be an obvious quick fix - there aren't obvious guys who can quickly and dramatically improve their production.

Apathy runs deep: The problem with this team is, more than anything else, that they just don't seem to care about how badly they are playing. They couldn't get their pulses racing when they had to know Redmond was in trouble, and out of the gate with Jennings they have looked, if anything, even worse. By their mental game they are the Atlanta Falcons of baseball. You can't win if you don't care, and you can't make a team care if they don't want to.

If they can't turn this corner - and I don't really expect them to - then it is very hard to see them doing anything better than they have done. In short, this smells like a wasted year.

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