MLB Betting Advice and Handicapping: Totals Trends Report 9/18/2015

by Aaron Smith - 9/18/2015

While football season is now in full swing, remember there is still money to be made on the diamond. In last month's report, I talked about how the 'over' had been dominating, and absolutely nothing has changed in the past three weeks. 'Under' bettors have been getting burned constantly, while over bettors are getting rich in the past month. How strong is the trend? In the past month, the over is a whopping 223-163 in Major League Baseball. The trend shows no signs of slowing, and in fact the rate that the over has cashed in at in the past week alone is a staggering 60.22 percent of the time.

In this report, you'll see that in general the only teams who have seen the under do well in their games has been teams who are fighting for a playoff spot. Most of the strongest over teams are teams who have nothing to play for the rest of the year. That is likely a trend that we will see continue through the end of the regular season.

The Major League Baseball regular season is a marathon, and over the course of the season you'll want to latch onto certain trends that could make your season a profitable one. Statistics in this report are for games played between Aug. 24 and Sept. 17.

Top Five "Over" Teams (Number of Overs Listed First)

1. Milwaukee Brewers (17-4) The Milwaukee Brewers have been an over machine in the last three weeks. Craig Counsell has this team continuing to play hard, but their starting pitching has fallen apart at the end of the year. Matt Garza has been told to stay on paternity leave thanks to some major battles with the front office. Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy have heated up as the season winds down.

2. New York Mets (16-7) The Mets are the one exception to the rule as a team who is in the playoff hunt that has been playing some extremely high-scoring games. There's no doubt that David Wright's return has helped the offense, but the pickup of Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline has been the single biggest catalyst for this offense. New York looked a little shaky against Miami this week, and they need to right the ship before the playoffs begin.

3. Philadelphia Phillies (15-6-2) The Phillies offense has been better than expected, and their pitching staff has been just as bad as predicted. They have been a great over team for the past two months. The oddsmakers haven't been able to catch up. Philadelphia is one of those teams that I would totally avoid playing an under with for the rest of the season. It's either a pass or an over for me in a Phillies game.

4. Oakland Athletics (15-6-1) Oakland is way out of the playoff race, and they are trying out some pitchers who haven't been in the big leagues before. That's the theme with several of these teams that have been playing a bunch of high-scoring affairs. The young pitchers tend to have a difficult time in their first few starts in the majors, but teams like Oakland simply need them to get that experience to prepare for next year.

5. Cincinnati Reds (15-8) Cincinnati is in the exact same spot as Oakland. The Reds rotation is testing out some new starters like John Lamb, Keyvius Sampson, and now Brandon Finnegan. Cincinnati's bullpen has been a mess all year. Joey Votto's torrid pace has helped the offense be more productive of late also. While he isn't getting much publicity for it because of the team's struggles, Votto is having a second-half for the record books.

Top Five "Under" Teams (Unders Listed First)

1. Miami Marlins (13-8-2) Miami was on the other side of this report last time, and I mentioned I expected the under to start being the side to take with the Marlins. This offense just isn't good. The Marlins bullpen has actually been one of the best in baseball all year as well, and that's something that goes a bit under the radar since the team has been so bad. Jose Fernandez is now back in the rotation as well, and there isn't a young pitcher with a higher upside than Fernandez.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (13-9) The Dodgers offense has been very good for the year overall, but they have been inconsistent. This is a lineup that sometimes goes on a tear, and then this is also an offense that was no-hit twice in the span of 10 days. Can the offense become more consistent? If they don't, it will be a problem in the postseason.

3. Colorado Rockies (14-10) The Colorado Rockies being on this side of the report surprises me a lot. They went on a nice under run for a while, but they have played in some high-scoring games again recently. Colorado is now starting a home series, and I wouldn't want any part of playing the under in Colorado's home games the rest of the way. This is still a team with a bad rotation, bad bullpen, and a good offense.

4. Texas Rangers (12-9-2) Texas' run through the past month has been incredible. This was a team that was barely on the fringe of the playoff race, and now here they are in the top spot in the American League West. I'm still skeptical of their chances of making a run in the playoffs, but they deserve a bunch of credit for getting to where they are today.

5. Los Angeles Angels (10-9-3) This shows you how hard it was to find under teams from the past three weeks of action. The Angels only have one more under than over, but that's good enough to make the list this time around. For the year as a whole, the Angels offense has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball.

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