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MLB Betting Advice and Handicapping: Totals Trends Report

by - 8/3/2015

The Kansas City Royals Jeremy Guthrie

It's time for the first MLB Totals Trends Report since the all-star break. The 'under' has been dominant since the break, as you will see in the information below. It is important to note that in the past week alone, the 'over' has cashed at slightly more than 50 percent, so the trend may be reversing course.

The MLB Trade Deadline is now in the rear view mirror, and there were definitely a lot of big deals this year. Troy Tulowitzki moving to Toronto was the biggest surprise, and the first six guys in that Blue Jays lineup are nothing short of amazing. I'm not sure they added enough pitching to be a serious playoff threat, but they will definitely be fun to watch. The Royals added some major pieces, and they are a definite threat to return to the World Series. They are hoping to take care of unfinished business from last year.

The Major League Baseball regular season is a marathon, and over the course of the season you'll want to latch onto certain trends that could make your season a profitable one. Doc's Sports will be doing a bi-weekly totals trends report to keep tabs on which teams are trending in one direction or the other. Statistics in this report are for games played between July 17 and Aug. 2.

Top Five "Over" Teams (Number of Overs Listed First)

1. Chicago White Sox (11-6) How could an offense go from so bad to so good in such a short period of time? I'm not exactly sure, but that is precisely what the White Sox have done in the last couple weeks. This team was ranked close to last in the majors in many key offensive categories before going on an offensive rampage of late. Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, and Alexei Ramirez have all picked up their production in a big way. I'm not sure this is sustainable, though, and I'd look for chances to play the under with them in coming weeks.

2. Boston Red Sox (11-6) The Red Sox have been a good over team the last few weeks. Is it because the pitching has been bad or because the offense has been good? It's been a little bit of both, truthfully. Boston's offense has underachieved most of the year. They have finally picked up the production some recently. Still, it hasn't been enough for them to get on a winning streak thanks to some terrible pitching.

3. Texas Rangers (9-6-1) The Texas Rangers bullpen has been the worst in baseball over the past couple months. The starting rotation isn't very good, but it should improve now that Cole Hamels is in the fold. Maybe more than anything else, it should help by keeping the bullpen out of the game for a longer period of time. Another factor in the recent over run for the Rangers is the weather in Arlington, Texas. It's been close to 100 degrees in most of their home games of late, and the ball has really been carrying well.

4. New York Yankees (9-7) The New York Yankees offense has been crushing the baseball in the past week. How good have they been? The Yankees have scored at least six runs in seven of their last nine games! They scored 21 in one game in Texas and then piled up 12 and 13 runs in two different games in Chicago this past weekend. This lineup is the hottest in all of baseball, and this amazing run has allowed them to create a little bit of distance between themselves and the rest of the American League East.

5. Los Angeles Angels (8-6-1) The Angels are a tough team to figure out. They were the hottest team in baseball for much of July, but now they have fallen apart. The Angels have lost nine of their last 10 games. They were swept out of Houston, which really hurt their positioning in the American League West. The Angels starting rotation overachieved for a long period of time, and they have been regressing recently. This is still a dangerous team, though, and it won't surprise me if they heat up again.

Top Five "Under" Teams (Unders Listed First)

1. St. Louis Cardinals (11-4-1) All year long the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff has been brilliant. Many people keep waiting for a drop off in production from this staff, but it just isn't coming. Carlos Martinez is becoming a very good starting pitcher, and the depth of this rotation is amazing. The offense has been in a bit of a funk of late. Make sure you remember that this Cardinals offense is very good against right-handed pitching, but subpar against lefties.

2. Oakland Athletics (10-4-1) The Oakland offense isn't any good. Ben Zobrist was the most reliable hitter for this team, and he's now a member of the Kansas City Royals. Oakland has been awful all year against left-handed pitching. For much of the year, this offense held their own against right-handed starters, but that has changed lately. Marcus Simien has been a defense liability all year, but his offensive production has tailed off badly in the last month.

3. Atlanta Braves (10-4-2) You could almost copy the exact same words from my Oakland Athletics writeup right into here. Freddie Freeman has been out of the lineup for an extended period, and he is just now getting healthy. He is the only really good hitter on this team, and they traded away a couple of their other more professional hitters. Like Oakland, the Braves are miserable against lefties. I expect an ugly end to the season for the Braves.

4. Milwaukee Brewers (10-4-2) Milwaukee traded away three of their best hitters, and the offense has been sputtering ever since. Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez, and Gerrado Parra are all gone. It has moved guys who really aren't ready into the starting lineup. Milwaukee is looking toward the future. I would continue to look for chances to play unders with the Brewers through the final two months of the season.

5. Kansas City Royals (11-6) The three teams above Kansas City have all given up hope for this year. That certainly isn't true for Kansas City. The Royals made themselves much better at the deadline. Kansas City is a tricky team to bet from a totals standpoint, though. Their offense is good, so it can be a bit scary to back the under. At the same time, their pitching staff, bullpen, and defense are all tremendous, so the over is always at risk as well. I recommend staying away from totals in Kansas City's games.

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