MLB Betting Advice and Handicapping: Totals Trends Report 8/24/2015

by Aaron Smith - 8/24/2015

Football season is about to get underway, but there continues to be chances to make money on the diamond. I think late season provides some nice opportunities because the oddsmakers primary attention is somewhere else. The division races are heating up, and there are plenty of teams still in the race for the final few playoff spots.

If you are an 'under' bettor, you likely haven't done well in the last few weeks. In the past month, the 'over' has cashed 53 percent of the time, and in the past week it is almost 56 percent. For the year, the over has now cashed in 882 times compared to 870 times for the under.

The Major League Baseball regular season is a marathon, and over the course of the season you'll want to latch onto certain trends that could make your season a profitable one. Doc's Sports will be doing a bi-weekly totals trends report to keep tabs on which teams are trending in one direction or the other. Statistics in this report are for games played between Aug. 3 and Aug. 23.

Top Five "Over" Teams (Number of Overs Listed First)

1. Boston Red Sox (13-3) The Boston Red Sox offense has been tearing the cover off the ball lately. The bullpen has blown some sizeable leads. If not for that fact the Red Sox would have been on a really nice streak of late. As it is, the Red Sox have still gone on a solid run overall, because they have simply been able to outscore their opponents. For the most of this year, the Red Sox offense underperformed compared to expectations. Lately, the Red Sox have some youngsters who are on fire, and oddsmakers can't raise their totals fast enough.

2. San Diego Padres (14-5) The San Diego Padres have been a tremendous over team all year long. In fact, they've been the single best over team in all of baseball. The over is 71-49-4 in the Padres games this season. The offense has broken out in a big way of late. The pitching staff is way down from what it has been in the past, and the defense continues to be a major problem. As I've said in the past, I continue to like playing the over with this team. The Padres totals are too low on a consistent basis.

3. Chicago Cubs (13-5) For much of the year, it was the Cubs pitching staff that had them in contention. The young lineup of the Cubs couldn't quite put together those big innings for a long time, but that has changed lately. Kyle Schwarber has been a huge asset to this offense, and Jorge Soler has started to swing a hot bat. This is a sneak peek into the future, and the rest of the National League should be concerned.

4. Miami Marlins (13-5-1) The Miami Marlins offense has surprisingly surged in the last few weeks. I'll admit that I didn't see this one coming. Dee Gordon continues to be amazing at the top of the order, but it has been the increased production from guys like Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich that has made the difference in recent weeks. Still, I would be scared of looking to bet the over with this team now. The oddsmakers are adjusting their totals upwards, and this offense is still bad.

5. Chicago White Sox (13-6) The White Sox made a brief run around the trade deadline, but they have slipped in the standings in recent weeks. The offense has still been swinging it much better than they did early in the year, but outside of Chris Sale the pitching staff has regressed in recent weeks. Make sure you look at the White Sox offensive splits before making your next totals bet on this team. This offense is much weaker against left-handed pitching.

Top Five "Under" Teams (Unders Listed First)

1. Houston Astros (14-5) The rest of the league hasn't had many unders, but the Astros have been playing some low-scoring contests! This pitching staff has been amazing in recent weeks. Mike Fiers threw the no-hitter, and Dallas Keuchel continues to have a breakout season. The Astros bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all year long. George Springer's absence has hurt this offense, so keep an eye on the injury reports to see when he will be back.

2. Texas Rangers (12-6-1) This is the team I'm most surprised is still in the playoff hunt. They looked dead a few weeks ago, but the Rangers are playing some good baseball lately. Texas has actually been better on the road than at home this year. The Rangers have a homestand starting Tuesday against Toronto and Baltimore. Those are two good teams who can score runs. Can the Rangers keep up? This should tell us a lot about Texas' chances.

3. New York Yankees (12-7) There's no doubt the Yankees have a good offense on the whole, but their lineup has been a little inconsistent this year. Mark Teixeira is badly missed when he isn't in the middle of the order. Alex Rodriguez had a grand slam that was awesome last week, but in the past month he has definitely cooled off overall. New York still has seven games left against Toronto, and I know I'm looking forward to those showdowns.

4. Detroit Tigers (10-7-1) Miguel Cabrera recently came back. The Tigers aren't the same offense without him. With Cabrera back in the middle of the lineup, I wouldn't want to be playing Detroit unders between now and the end of the season. This offense is one of the best in the majors, and the Tigers bullpen can be blown up at any point. Don't be surprised if they end up on the other side of this report before the end of the year.

5. Cincinnati Reds (11-8) The season can't end soon enough for the Cincinnati Reds. Joey Votto is crushing the baseball, but no one else on the team is doing anything offensively. Todd Frazier has been bad in the second half of the season, and Jay Bruce has slumped once again in recent weeks. The Reds have some talented young arms, but they are entering what should be a prolonged period of rebuilding.

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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