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MLB Betting Advice and Handicapping: Totals Trends Report

by - 7/13/2015

Troy Tulowitzki Colorado Rockies

The All-Star break is here. The majority of big leaguers are taking their lone break of the season. A few of them will be taking part in the midseason classic. The Detroit Tigers recently went on the most amazing totals run we have ever seen. Detroit's games went 'over' the posted total in 19 straight games. That's truly fascinating when you consider baseball is the only game in town right now for most bettors, and the oddsmakers were clearly adjusting the Tigers numbers upwards during the streak.

How good are the oddsmakers at setting these totals? The over has cashed in 624 (49.68 percent) games, and the under has cashed in 632 (50.32 percent) games. At the end of the season, it's very likely the numbers will be close to 50/50, so it's important to catch a team trending in one way or another. The Tigers were the perfect train to ride.

The Major League Baseball regular season is a marathon, and over the course of the season you'll want to latch onto certain trends that could make your season a profitable one. Doc's Sports will be doing a bi-weekly totals trends report to keep tabs on which teams are trending in one direction or the other. Statistics in this report are for games played between June 17 and July 12.

Top Five "Over" Teams (Number of Overs Listed First)

1. Detroit Tigers (21-2) Who else would have been at the top of this list?! Detroit has been crushing the baseball, and their pitching staff has been getting torched. The bullpen that was once overachieving has fallen on some really hard times of late. Their ninth-inning meltdown in Minnesota this past weekend was perfect evidence of that. Without Miguel Cabrera, the offense is unlikely to be able to keep up their current pace, but I can't get excited about backing the under with this pitching staff's current form.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (17-7) The Phillies are the worst team in baseball, and it isn't even close. The reason they are on this side of the report is twofold. The oddsmakers started setting the Phillies totals very low because of their awful offensive output earlier this year. Philadelphia's offense has definitely picked up their productivity, and the pitching staff has continued to be miserable. Because the Phillies can give up such a huge amount of runs at any given point, be careful playing low unders with this team.

3. Colorado Rockies (13-8-2) The Colorado Rockies can definitely hit the ball. There are a lot of guys in this lineup who are having good seasons. Nolan Arenado has always been a defensive wizard, but now he's turned into one of the best hitters in baseball as well. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez have actually been slightly disappointing to this point in the year, so if they ever warm up this offense could really light up the scoreboard. Remember, the Rockies bullpen has some serious problems as well.

4. Kansas City Royals (12-8-5) Kansas City's offense was red-hot as we went into the break. The Royals scored at least seven runs in five of their last seven games before the break. For the year so far, the Royals have 38 overs and 38 unders along with 10 pushes. This team is a tricky one to figure out from a totals standpoint. They have a quality offense, but their bullpen is amazing and their defense is arguably the best in baseball also.

5. San Francisco Giants (12-10) San Francisco took advantage of the fact that they finished the first half with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants were badly slumping before sweeping away Philadelphia in their three-game series this past weekend. The bullpen is less dominant than it was in the past, and the offense has been better than expected. Don't count this team out, since they certainly have proven they know how to win when it matters most.

Top Five "Under" Teams (Unders Listed First)

1. Atlanta Braves (18-6-1) I've been waiting on the offensive slide for the Braves all year, and finally it came. This offense overachieved for such a long time, but now they are finally coming down to earth. Also, star hitter Freddie Freeman's absence has been far too much for them to overcome. The pitching staff has been decent. Look for the Braves to continue to struggle in the second half. This could definitely be a team that looks to trade away some of their top players.

2. New York Mets (17-6) Speaking of bad offenses, how about this New York Mets offense? It's truly amazing that the Mets have been so competitive with a brutally bad offense. It just goes to show you that top-notch pitching will give you a chance to win all the time. The young Mets rotation has been amazing, and I see no reason to doubt them in the second half. Will the Mets go out and find a high-quality hitter? They are crazy if they don't!

3. Washington Nationals (15-7) Here's another tremendous pitching staff. Max Scherzer has been the best pitcher in baseball, and the rest of the Nationals staff is very good as well. This offense has been bad this year outside of Bryce Harper. He truly has carried the lineup to the halfway mark. Can Harper continue his amazing production from the first half? It will be tough, but I wouldn't want to bet against him, either.

4. Chicago Cubs (15-8-2) The Chicago Cubs offense has been a bit of a disappointment. The reason the Cubs have a solid record at this point in the season is the tremendous work of their pitching staff. Jake Arrieta has been one of the best starting pitchers in the National League. Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, and Jon Lester have all been good as well. Especially in the cases of Arrieta, Hammel, and Hendricks the Cubs have gotten far better than they could have ever hoped for before the season started. Joe Maddon is a great manager, and this team will probably contend for a Wild Card spot right through the end of the season.

5. Chicago White Sox (13-7-3) The Chicago White Sox went on a nice run right before the break. I still don't think this team is good at all. Chris Sale is amazing and Jose Quintana is an above-average lefty as well. The White Sox lineup is just awful though. Outside of Jose Abreu, there's no one here that can be counted on to produce. If you are looking to bet the under with the White Sox, consider it strongly when they are up against a lefty. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in on base percentage against left-handed pitching.

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