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MLB American League Futures Odds Update at All-Star Break

by - 7/13/2015

The Kansas City Royals Jeremy Guthrie

Always tough to project futures odds at baseball's all-star break because of the July 31 deadline being right around the corner, but let's give it a shot anyway. Look for a National League update on Tuesday, and I'll also take a look at updated MVP and Cy Young odds this week -- perhaps the longest week of the year for a sports bettor with nothing going on. Unless you count the ESPYs that is, and I certainly don't.

That the Los Angeles Angels are leading the AL West doesn't surprise me, but I certainly didn't project the New York Yankees to be leading the AL East at the break or the Kansas City Royals to be atop the AL Central at the break. The Yankees have a 3.5-game lead over Tampa Bay in the East, and New York is +140 favorite at Bovada to win the division. I don't think that's a smart bet unless the Steinbrenner family is prepared to open the checkbook -- which doesn't seem all that likely. I don't believe old guys like Mark Teixeira or Alex Rodriguez are going to keep hitting like they have been. I suppose A-Rod can stay healthy because he only plays DH, but I 100 percent expect Tex to spend at least one stint on the disabled list in the second half. And I don't like New York's pitching whatsoever. Michael Pineda is also an injury waiting to happen, while CC Sabathia just isn't very good these days. If the Yanks do make a deal for someone like a Cole Hamels then I may change my tune, but you just never hear them linked to him or someone of that caliber. These aren't George Steinbrenner's Yankees but the conservative, frugal Bombers.

I don't think the Rays are good value either -- they are +500 long shots -- because you know they can't afford to add a star player via trade. Tampa doesn't have the offense. I'm sticking with Toronto at +400. The Jays have the majors' best offense by far, and I believe they will go get someone like Hamels, the Reds' Johnny Cueto or White Sox's Jeff Samardzija (although Chicago is starting to play better and may just keep him). GM Alex Anthopoulos is under a lot of pressure to make the playoffs as Toronto has the longest drought in the majors.

In the Central, the Royals obviously are going to miss left fielder and All-Star Alex Gordon in a big way as he's expected to miss eight weeks or so with a groin strain. I think Kansas City will make a deal to get outfield help as well as another arm. The Royals are -300 favorites to win the Central. They're fourth in the AL in runs per game, first in fewest runs allowed per game and, according to FanGraphs, have a 68 percent chance of winning the division. Minnesota is second, 4.5 games back, but the Twins don't have enough to stay there. The shocker is Detroit being at just .500 and nine games back. I think that team's championship window has closed. Justin Verlander is a shell of his former self, and Miguel Cabrera, who was having another MVP-caliber season, is likely to miss at least six more weeks with a calf injury. Might the team decide to trade ace David Price? He will be a free agent after the season, and I don't think the Tigers can afford him with how much they have tied up in guys like Verlander and Cabrera.

As for the AL West, the Astros led much of the season-- since April 18 -- but now the Halos have a half-game lead over Houston, which is a year ahead of schedule when it comes to contending. Angels owner Arte Moreno is never afraid to spend, so Los Angeles will make a move if necessary. They could use an upgrade in left field at DH or at second base. L.A. is a -110 favorite to win the division. The Astros (+150) are definitely going to do something because ownership is ready to spend, and they still have a very deep farm system after already having called up some young stars like Carlos Correa. I could see the Astros getting A's lefty Scott Kazmir, who is from Houston. The Astros might move quickly as they entered the break on a season-high six-game skid.

The Royals are currently +325 pennant favorites, followed by the Angels (+600) and Astros (+800). A few overseas sites have odds on which division the AL champion will come from. The AL Central is the +163 favorite followed by the East at +175 and the West at +188. I like the West on that prop -- Angels are my pennant winners with a rejuvenated Albert Pujols.

As for the wild-card race, the Twins hold down the first spot and Astros the second. I do think Houston will take one spot and probably the AL East runner-up the other. I lean toward Baltimore there. But don't sleep on Cleveland, which has arguably the best starting rotation in the AL.

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