How to Bet the 2015 Belmont Stakes: Tips and Expert Wagering Advice

by Trevor Whenham - 5/21/2015

We are now days away from a real chance at history. American Pharoah is the latest horse to have a shot at immortality by winning the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978, and he is one of the best to have that chance. As exciting as his presence is, it also makes it a very difficult race to bet on. The odds on him will be very low, so the hunt for value is even tougher in this race than in any other. Never mind that the horses are being asked to run further than most are truly capable of and that we can't know how any horse will do in the race until he actually does it. To try to make the best possible betting decision in the race, here are five tips on how to bet the Belmont:

Take a stand on American Pharoah: You are either with him or against him. In this race there is no middle ground. He is a virtual lock to go off at well below even money. You can't afford to bet on him and other horses to win. You can't really afford to bet him and other horses on top of exotics, either - at least not smaller exotics like the exacta or trifecta. If you like him and his chances then you have to commit to that absolutely and focus your energy on finding the best ways to bet on your opinion to maximize the potential return.

If, though, you are skeptical of him, then you have to commit to that as well. You might use him lower down in exotics, but you absolutely can't use him on top. If you don't like him then win betting is likely going to be a whole lot more attractive than if he is your pick.

Draw a picture of the race: The old saying is that the pace makes the race. It has stuck around for so long for one big reason - it's true. When you are trying to handicap any race you want to start by looking at how the race is likely to play out and what that means for different horses. In a race this long and challenging, the pace can have an even bigger impact. A fast early pace could cause the front-running horses - like American Pharoah - to expend too much energy and have nothing left for the impossibly-long stretch at Belmont. That could be good news for the closers, though, because they can relax and save energy early on and then pick off the tiring runners in the stretch. Because the track at Belmont is so huge, closers have to worry less about finding room to move than anywhere else.

On the other hand, a slow early pace like in the Derby could make it really tough for anyone to beat American Pharoah because he'll have gas in the tank at the end of the race. You also need to look in this race at how the other horses and connections are likely to react to American Pharoah. They know that, all things being equal, he is the best horse. They need to do anything they can to get him off his game and help themselves. That likely means we will see some aggressive and risky moves - like, perhaps, a very fast early pace from a horse like War Story.

Watch odds movement closely: Morning line odds are a good starting point for handicapping, but they can't be relied upon in a race like this. Because so much of the betting attention will be on the favorite, the odds for the other horses are going to be unpredictable and could differ significantly from the morning line. If you have done your homework in advance and know how much value a horse offers at their morning line price then you can adjust accordingly as the odds move closer to post time. A horse going off at well over the morning line might deserve more of your bankroll, and vice versa.

Look to multi-race bets: In the Derby and the Preakness bettors seem to focus most of their efforts on the intra-race exotics - the trifecta, exacta, or superfecta - to maximize their returns. I the Belmont, though, you might want to look beyond those bets and consider bets involving more than one race - especially if you like American Pharoah.

If you like the favorite then you can use him as a single in the race, which lowers the costs of a daily double, a pick three or a pick four significantly. It depends upon how the other races on the card set up, of course, but this race, with a heavy favorite and a deep field behind him, could be very tough and expensive to bet with traditional exotics.

Buy yourself a souvenir: What would be cooler than having a souvenir win ticket for a Triple Crown winner? It would be the best $2 you could spend if we finally do get to taste history again here. You might not want to take my word on this one, though - I have thrown away a lot of money over the years faithfully buying these potential, but ultimately worthless, souvenirs.

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Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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