Five To Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 4/28/2015

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann

Many key injuries happened over the weekend, including NL contenders the St. Louis Cardinals and L.A. Dodgers losing starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Brandon McCarthy, respectively, for the season. That's especially big for the Cardinals, while I could see the deep-pocketed Dodgers going to get someone like the Reds' Johnny Cueto, a pending free agent, later this summer. The Cards generally don't make that type of move, but they certainly have a deep farm system as well to go get someone. That Wainwright injury really helps the Cubs and Pirates especially in the NL Central.

Rays at Yankees (-157, 7)

An early 1:05 p.m. start in the Bronx, which often helps the pitchers as it is after a night game. Thus looked to be a fine pitching matchup regardless. It's lefty Drew Smyly for the Rays. He made his season debut on Friday night off an injury and was limited in pitch count and thus lasted only 4.2 innings against the Blue Jays and allowed two runs and four hits, striking out five. He made one start against the Yankees last year and got a no-decision, allowing two runs and four hits in seven innings. He is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA in three career appearances at Yankee Stadium. A-Rod is 1-for-3 career off him -- will he hit No. 660 in this one? Masahiro Tanaka starts for the Yanks. He faced these Rays on April 18 in St. Petersburg shut them out on two hits over seven innings. James Loney is 2-for-3 career off him.

Key trends: The Rays are 5-0 in Smyly's past five vs. the AL East. The Yanks have won four straight against lefties. The "over/under" has gone under in seven of in Smyly's past eight overall. The over is 6-1 in New York's past seven against southpaws.

Early lean: Yankees and under.

Blue Jays at Red Sox (-125, 9.5)

Toronto has placed injury-prone shortstop Jose Reyes on the disabled list. He tried to play through a small fracture in his left rib but the pain was too much -- I've had a cracked rib and I couldn't imagine playing baseball. It's hard enough just to sleep. Ryan Goins will be the team's primary shortstop with Reyes out. So a bit easier of a lineup for Boston's Rick Porcello to face. I wonder if the Sox are regretting giving Porcello (1-2, 6.48) that $82 million extension because he hasn't been good, allowing at least four runs in three straight starts. This is his first start vs. Toronto as a member of the Sox. Jose Bautista is 8-for-17 with three RBIs off him -- he returned from a shoulder injury on Monday. R.A. Dickey starts for Toronto. He was raked for eight runs and nine hits in 4.2 innings last time out at Tampa Bay. David Ortiz hits Dickey well, going 6-for-18 with two doubles, two homers and six RBIs.

Key trends: Toronto is 3-11 in Dickey's past 14 in Game 3 of a series. The Sox are 1-8 in their past nine Wednesday games. The Jays are 4-1 in Dickey's past five vs. Boston. The under is 8-2 in his past 10 during Game 3 of a series.

Early lean: Jays and over.

White Sox at Orioles (TBA)

Will this game be played in Baltimore? The teams' games on Monday and Tuesday were postponed because of all the protests going on in the city. They can't wipe out an entire series (can they?) and there was some talk of moving to Washington (or Philly) if things don't quiet down, although the Orioles and Nats don't have the best relationship due to a lawsuit over a TV network. Or the teams could move to a day game when things would presumably be safer. White Sox ace Chris Sale (2-0, 2.37) would likely be set to start. He's appealing his five-game suspension from the brawl with K.C. last week. Sale hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his three starts. Adam Jones is 3-for-8 with a homer and two RBIs off him. Chris Tillman (2-2, 7.58) probably gets the start for Baltimore. He was rocked for seven runs last time out, his second time allowing seven this season -- both against the Jays. He was good in his other two starts. Melky Cabrera is 7-for-22 with a homer and five RBIs against him.

Key trends: The Sox are 4-1 in Sale's past five vs. teams with a losing record. The Orioles are 10-2 in Tillman's past 12 at home. The over is 5-1 in his past six starts overall.

Early lean: Obviously wait and see.

Nationals at Braves (+106, 7)

Might Washington make Jordan Zimmermann available? He will be a free agent after this season and won't be re-signing. Would the Nats want to make the Cardinals or Dodgers better, though? They seem likely to face one of them in the playoffs. Zimmermann (1-2, 5.23) looked pretty solid last time out, allowing two runs and six hits over six innings with no walks in a no-decision vs. the Marlins. Freddie Freeman is 6-for-19 with a double and two homers off him. Lefty Alex Wood (1-0, 3.00) goes for Atlanta. He shut out the Phillies over 5.2 innings last time out. Last year he was 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA in four starts against Washington. Ian Desmond has two solo homers in 13 at-bats off him.

Key trends: The Nats are 5-2 in Zimmermann's past seven road starts. The Braves are 7-3 in Wood's past 10 vs. the NL East. The Braves are 5-1 in Wood's past six vs. Washington. The under has hit in five of those.

Early lean: Braves and under.

Giants at Dodgers (-180, 7)

We might be looking at a disabled list stint for Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford. He had to leave Monday's game vs. the Giants with tightness in his right side. Yasiel Puig is already on the disabled list. This is why the team never traded fourth outfielder Andre Ethier. Zack Greinke (3-0, 1.35) is on the mound for the Dodgers. All four of his starts have been quality thus far. He hasn't faced the Giants this year and was 5-0 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts against them in 2014. Buster Posey is 6-for-18 with two RBIs against Greinke. Ryan Vogelsong (0-1, 7.71) goes for the Giants. He had his best outing last time out against these Dodgers, allowing two runs and three hits over six innings. Adrian Gonzalez is 6-for-20 with three doubles, two homers and five RBIs off him.

Key trends: The Giants are 0-6 in Vogelsong's past six on the road. L.A. is 7-1 in Greinke's past eight following a quality starts in his last appearance. The over is 4-1 in the Dodgers' past five vs. the Giants.

Early lean: Dodgers, an Adrian Gonzalez hitting prop and under.

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