Five To Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, May 5, 2015 Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 5/4/2015

Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera

We have our first managerial firing in MLB this season, and to no surprise it was Milwaukee's Ron Roenicke. Once the Marlins fixed themselves it made him the clear favorite to go first. The team has replaced him on a full-time basis by former big-league player Craig Counsell, who has no managerial experience at any level. So that begs the question of who might be next. I would put the White Sox's Robin Ventura at the top of the list, but I know owner Jerry Reinsdorf loves the guy from his playing days with the Pale Hose. That's fine, but Chicago shouldn't be in last place in the AL Central and with the worst run differential in the AL. Maybe Washington's Matt Williams could be in trouble if the Nats don't start playing to expectations. Ditto Toronto's John Gibbons.

Tigers at White Sox (-120, 8.5)

If the Sox get swept here then Ventura might be gone. They were just swept four games over the weekend by a bad Minnesota team, being outscored 31-8. Jeff Samardzija (1-2, 4.78) gets the call here. He was rocked last time out, allowing eight runs and 10 hits over five innings in that game in Baltimore that didn't have any fans in attendance. His best start of the season likely was April 17 in Detroit when Samardzija allowed a run over eight innings, striking out seven. Miguel Cabrera is 2-for-4 with a double off him. Shane Greene (3-1, 4.60) goes for the Tigers. He had been fabulous but has been shelled the last two times out, allowing 15 runs over 8.1 innings. He beat the White Sox on April 19, giving up a run over seven innings. Jose Abreu is 2-for-6 with a homer and four RBIs against him.

Key trends: The Sox have dropped five straight against right-handers. The "over/under" has gone under in 10 of Detroit's past 11 Tuesday games. The under is 5-2 in Chicago's past seven series openers.

Early lean: White Sox and over.

Rays at Red Sox (-130, 8.5)

Tampa has placed outfielder Desmond Jennings on the 15-day disabled list with bursitis in his left knee. It's the 11th player the injury-plagued Rays have placed on the DL. Jennings was supposed to be a star, but the 28-year-old is hitting just .222 with one extra-base hit. Lefty Drew Smyly (0-0, 3.38) starts for Tampa. He has made only two starts after beginning the season on the DL. He allowed two runs over six innings and struck out 10 Yankees last time out in a no-decision. Last year Smyly was 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two starts against Boston but never pitched at Fenway. David Ortiz is 4-for-7 with a homer and two RBIs against him. It's Rick Porcello (2-2, 5.34) for Boston. He had his best start as a Red Sox last time out, allowing one run and two hits over seven innings against the Jays. James Loney is a career .385 hitter off him. Evan Longoria just 2-for-14.

Key trends: The Rays are 6-0 in Smyly's past six starts. The Sox have dropped five straight Game 2s of a series. The under is 8-1 in Smyly's past nine overall.

Early lean: Rays and under.

Indians at Royals (-105, 7.5)

Kansas City is likely to activate closer Greg Holland before this game. He has been out since April 17 with a strained right pectoral muscle. He was eligible to be activated Saturday, but the team wanted to see how he did in a simulated game first. Lefty Jason Vargas (2-1, 5.95) starts for the Royals. He allowed two runs and three hits over five innings last time out vs. Cleveland. He did walk five. Jason Kipnis is 5-for-15 with a double and four RBIs against Vargas. David Murphy just 2-for-24. It's Danny Salazar (3-0, 3.32) for the Tribe. He had his worst start of the season last time out against the Royals, allowing four runs and six hits over six innings. But he still won. Eric Hosmer is 6-for-12 with three doubles and a homer against Salazar.

Key trends: The Indians are 0-7 in their past seven after a win. The Royals are 7-2 in Vargas' past nine in Game 1 of a series. The over is 5-1 in Salazar's past six vs. K.C.

Early lean: Indians and over.

Mariners at Angels (-137, 7.5)

Seattle center fielder Austin Jackson surely won't play in this one and might have to go on the disabled list after spraining his right ankle in the third inning Sunday while running out an infield grounder. Jackson is batting .242 with 11 runs, two doubles, two homers and four RBIs in 25 games. Justin Ruggiano should start as long as Jackson is out. Lefty James Paxton (0-2, 5.74) gets the call for the M's. He did have his best outing of the season last time out, allowing two runs and five hits over seven innings against Houston. His season debut was vs. the Angels and Paxton allowed two runs over six innings. David Freese is 5-for-14 with two homers and three RBIs off him. Garrett Richards (2-1, 3.00) goes for the Halos. He allowed a run and four hits over six innings against Oakland in his last start and hasn't faced Seattle this year. Kyle Seager is 6-for-19 with a double and two RBIs against him.

Key trends: The Mariners have dropped five straight Paxton starts on the road. The Angels are 8-2 in Richards' past 10 vs. the AL West. The under is 5-0 in Richards' past five vs. Seattle.

Early lean: Angels and under.

Padres at Giants (+110, 7)

The Giants' Ryan Vogelsong (0-2, 9.31) is going to be demoted to the bullpen if he gets knocked around again. He has been arguably the worst starter in the National League thus far. He pitched in San Diego on April 11 and allowed five runs and nine hits over 3.2 innings. Last time out he allowed four homers in 3.0 innings against the Dodgers. Matt Kemp hits him well, going 12-for-32 with a homer and seven RBIs. It's San Diego ace Andrew Cashner (1-4, 2.61). He allowed two earned and struck out a season-high 10 in his last start vs. Houston, going seven innings. As you can see by his record, Cashner isn't getting much run support. Buster Posey is 9-for-17 with two homers and four RBIs off Cashner.

Key trends: The Padres are 3-7 in Cashner's past 10 on the road. The Giants are 1-5 in Vogelsong's past six vs. the NL West. The under is 9-3 in Vogelsong's past 12 at home.

Early lean: Padres and over.

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