Five To Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, April 16, 2015 Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 4/15/2015

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels

By the time you read this story, there may be word on the severity of the hamstring injury suffered by Mets star third baseman -- I wouldn't call him a star any longer but just a good player if you simply look at his recent numbers -- David Wright. He injured himself stealing second base in the eighth inning against the Phillies on Tuesday, and even Manager Terry Collins deemed it likely "major." So obviously Wright will not play Thursday, and I'm sure will miss at least a few weeks on the disabled list. He is hitting .333 with a homer and four RBIs this season. In 2013, Wright missed the final seven weeks of the season with a hamstring injury.

Brewers at Cardinals (-143, 7.5)

It's a getaway day matinee in the series finale, so you might see one or both of the best catchers in baseball, the Cardinals' Yadier Molina and Brewers' Jonathan Lucroy, get the day off. Molina might need it as he's batting only .143 with one RBI entering Wednesday. Lucroy has been even worse at .087 with no RBIs, but at least he has the excuse of having missed most of the spring due to injury. The Brewers start Mike Fiers, who took the loss in his opener, allowing five runs and seven hits over five innings vs. Pittsburgh. Fiers was 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA in two starts last year vs. St. Louis. Might be good for Molina to sit as he's only 2-for-14 off Fiers. John Lackey goes for the Cards. He took a no-decision in his opener, allowing four runs in six innings vs. the Reds. Lackey was 1-1 with a 5.54 ERA in two starts vs. the Brew Crew. Adam Lind rakes against Lackey from their AL days as Lind is 15-for-28 with six doubles and six RBIs.

Key trends: The Brewers are 1-5 in Fiers' past six on the road. The Cards are 6-0 in Lackey's past six at home. The "over/under" has gone under in seven of Fiers' past 10 vs. the NL Central.

Early lean: Cardinals and over.

Phillies at Nationals (-134, 6.5)

It's the series opener between these teams and the Nats should be able to pad their wins total by beating up on the lousy Phillies at least 15 times this year. Well, in theory. The Phillies took two of three from Washington in Philadelphia last week. Ace Cole Hamels (0-1, 3.75) starts for Philadelphia. He was not good in his debut vs. the Red Sox but then faced these Nationals and allowed just one run and two hits over seven innings but took a no-decision. The Phillies have yet to score a run while Hamels was still in the game this season. Jayson Werth has two career homers and seven RBIs off Hamels but also just five total hits in 34 at-bats. Doug Fister starts for the Nats and he was very good in his debut opposite Hamels, shutting out the Phillies over 6.1 innings on six hits. Grady Sizemore should be in the lineup as he's 4-for-12 with a homer and three RBIs off Fister.

Key trends: The Phillies are 6-2 in Hamels' past eight series openers. The Nats are 9-2 in Fister's past 11 at home. The Phils are 1-4 in Hamels' past five at Washington. The under is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings.

Early lean: Huge on under. Go Nats.

Rays at Blue Jays (+103, 8)

Tampa Bay's Chris Archer already has established himself as one of the AL's best young pitchers, and Toronto's Aaron Sanchez could be on his way to doing the same. They face off in Thursday's series finale. Archer (1-1, 2.13) was just so-so in his season debut against Baltimore but then dominant Saturday at Minnesota -- but then the Twins are terrible -- in shutting out the Twins on one hit over seven innings. Archer was hitting 98 mph in his final inning. In 2014, Archer was 1-1 with a 4.14 ERA in six starts vs. Toronto, by far his most outings against any club. Jose Bautista is just 2-for-21 career off him. Justin Smoak is 3-for-5 with a homer and three RBIs. Sanchez, just 22, was a bit shaky in his first big-league start, allowing three runs and seven hits (two homers) over 3.1 innings in a loss at Baltimore. A few Rays faced him last year in relief. Evan Longoria is 0-for-3 against him.

Key trends: The Rays are 9-1 in Archer's past 10 on the road. The Jays are 1-5 in their past six Game 4s of a series. The over is 5-2 in Archer's past seven vs. Toronto.

Early lean: Go under regardless. I'd lean Toronto here if the Jays lose Wednesday. The Jays won't get swept four straight at home.

Marlins at Mets (-119, 7)

The Mets apparently avoided total disaster in Tuesday's game as big free-agent acquisition and outfielder Michael Cuddyer was hit on the hand with a pitch and had to leave, but he says it's no big deal. X-rays were negative. Still, he might miss a game or two. Teammate Wilmer Flores was hit in the hand by a pitch in the same inning but remained in the game. Could be a depleted lineup that Marlins starter Jarred Cosart will see in the series opener. He lost his season debut but pitched well, allowing just one run and three hits over six innings against the Rays. Last year, Cosart faced the Mets once and allowed two runs and five hits over six innings in a no-decision. Few Mets have faced him. Flores is 2-for-3 with two RBIs off him. Dillon Gee starts for New York. He won the Mets' final rotation spot this spring but wasn't sharp in his opener, allowing five runs and eight hits over five innings in a loss to Atlanta. Last year, he was 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts vs. the Marlins. Giancarlo Stanton has a solo homer in nine at-bats off him.

Key trends: The Marlins are 1-4 in Cosart's past five starts. The Mets are 1-5 in Gee's past six series-opening starts. The over is 6-0 in the past six meetings in New York.

Early lean: Marlins and under.

Diamondbacks at Giants (-186, 6.5)

This game will be nationally televised on the MLB Network and thus should have live betting at the various sportsbooks. Some would call Arizona's Archie Bradley the top pitching prospect in baseball, and he looked the part in his season debut, shutting out the Dodgers on one hit over six innings, striking out six in beating Clayton Kershaw. Bradley has never faced the Giants. So now Bradley goes from Kershaw to World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner (1-1, 5.40). He beat the Diamondbacks in his season debut, allowing a run over six hits in seven innings but was knocked around Monday by the Padres. He's 7-4 with a 2.61 ERA in his career against Arizona. Aaron Hill has two homers and six RBIs in 28 at-bats off him.

Key trends: The Snakes are 3-9 in their past 12 vs. lefties. The Giants are 5-1 in Bumgarner's past six at home. San Francisco has won his past six against Arizona.

Early lean: I'll take Arizona at -135 on the runline. The Giants don't know Bradley.

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