Five To Follow MLB Betting: Sunday, May 17, 2015 Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 5/16/2015

Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera

Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is obviously one of the best hitters of his generation and a future Hall of Famer. That's not up for discussion. He can hit any pitcher: flamethrower, knuckleballer, junkballer, lefty, righty, you name it. Cabrera can hit in any park. So explain to me, then, his day/night splits this season. Entering Saturday, Cabrera was hitting just .194 in night games with one homer and three RBI (and that's after a big Friday night). How is that possible? In day games, with only a few more at-bats, Cabrera is batting .471 with eight homers and 25 RBIs. So if you do daily DraftKings or whatever, take that into consideration.

Brewers at Mets (-120, 7.5)

New York has an embarrassment of young pitching but equal embarrassment of lack of hitters. The Mets are going to have to deal one of these guys at some point. But I don't think the Mets are giving up Noah Syndergaard, who looks like Thor. It should be a raucous crowd as Syndergaard makes his Citi Field debut on Sunday. He was dominant for five innings in his big-league debut on Tuesday at Wrigley Field before a few things out of his control happened. He allowed three runs and struck out six in 5.1 innings in taking the loss. Syndergaard threw 65 fastballs in his 103 pitches, averaging 98 mph on those fastballs. He's good. Wily Peralta (1-4, 3.80) goes for the Brewers. He has had four straight quality starts and allowed two runs and six hits over six innings last time out against the White Sox as the bullpen blew a big lead for him. Curtis Granderson is 4-for-5 with two doubles and a homer off him. Daniel Murphy has three singles in nine at-bats.

Key trends: The Brewers are 1-4 in Peralta's past five on the road. The "over/under" has gone under in his past four on the road.

Early lean: Mets and under.

Braves at Marlins (-140, 7.5)

So far, Atlanta has to be thrilled with that offseason trade in which it netted Shelby Miller from St. Louis. Miller (4-1, 1.60) has been one of the NL's best starters and enters the weekend No. 2 in ERA and among the WHIP (0.93) leaders. His first two starts as a Brave were against the Marlins, and he allowed one run and seven hits over 10 innings. Dating to last season, Miller has a spectacular 1.83 ERA in his past 14 starts. Dee Gordon is 4-for-12 off him. Giancarlo Stanton has two dingers in 12 at-bats. Miami gets back Henderson Alvarez (0-2, 4.50) from the DL. The presumed ace, at least until Jose Fernandez returns, hasn't pitched since April 12 with right shoulder and elbow issues. His season debut was vs. Atlanta, allowing two runs and six hits over seven innings. Andrelton Simmons may get the day off as he's just 1-for-18 career off him. Freddie Freeman is 6-for-18 with a homer and five RBIs.

Key trends: The Braves are 4-0 in Miller's past four on the road. The under has hit in all four.

Early lean: Go under for sure. Alvarez may be rusty so lean Braves.

Pirates at Cubs (-122, TBA)

A.J. Burnett took about a $4 million pay cut this season to sign with Pittsburgh after spending one long season last year with Philadelphia. It has been a great deal for the Pirates as Burnett is 2-1 with a 1.60 ERA. Not bad for a 38-year-old who led the majors with 18 losses last season and then declined a $12.75 million player option. Burnett has allowed two runs or fewer in all seven outings this season. Burnett faced the Cubs on April 20 and allowed a run and eight hits over six innings in a no-decision. Starlin Castro is a career .469 hitter off him in 32 at-bats. Miguel Montero is 4-for-7 with two RBIs. Jake Arrieta (4-3, 3.00) had struggled in two May starts but dominated the Mets on Tuesday, allowing a run and three hits in eight innings, striking out a season-high 10. He was opposite Burnett on April 20 and got the win by allowing a run over seven innings. Andrew McCutchen is 6-for-14 with two doubles off him.

Key trends: The Pirates are 1-5 in Burnett's past six vs. teams with a winning record. The Cubs are 6-2 in Arrieta's past eight at home. The under is 4-0-1 in his past five at Wrigley.

Early lean: The Cubs have been paying off all week, so why stop now?

Nationals at Padres (+112, 7)

I've said in this space previously that Washington's Stephen Strasburg is one of the most overrated pitchers in MLB and that the books totally overvalue him. Well, Strasburg (2-4, 6.06) is simply not good right now. He was bombed for eight runs (career high) and eight hits over 3.1 innings last time out in Arizona. Strasburg had his start pushed back a day after leaving his previous outing after three innings with lower back tightness and had said he was fine. The Padres' Will Venable is 4-for-13 off him with two extra-base hits. Justin Upton is 7-for-27 with a homer but seven strikeouts. San Diego's Ian Kennedy (2-2, 5.92) also was hit hard in his last start, giving up five runs and eight hits in 4.2 innings against the Mariners. Jayson Werth is 5-for-14 with a homer off him. He has a wrist injury suffered Friday, but X-rays were negative. However, he may have to sit this one out.

Key trends: Washington is 17-2 in Strasburg's past 19 on Sunday (what's up with that?). San Diego is 6-2 in Kennedy's past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Strasburg's past four vs. San Diego.

Early lean: I'm not falling into the trap. Padres and over.

Tigers at Cardinals (-139, 7.5)

This is your Sunday night ESPN game and will have live betting at sportsbooks. It's also the last meeting between these clubs until possibly October, when it could certainly happen again for a fourth time in the World Series. That exact matchup is currently +2100. Alfredo Simon starts for the Tigers, and he's familiar with the Cardinals from last season while he was with Cincinnati. He was 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA against them. Simon (4-1, 3.05) allowed only a run over 7.2 innings last time out vs. Minnesota. Matt Holliday is just 3-for-16 off him. Jhonny Peralta 2-for-11 but with a solo homer. Lance Lynn (2-3, 3.27) had his best outing of the season on Tuesday, shutting out Cleveland over six innings on four hits. Cabrera is 1-for-2 with a double off him. Remember, no DH for Detroit so that means no Victor Martinez.

Key trends: The Tigers are 5-1 in their past six in Game 3 of a series. The Cards are 2-7 in Lynn's past nine following a quality start. The over is 6-0 in his past six on Sunday.

Early lean: Cardinals and over.

Doc's is offering $60 worth of member baseball picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - you don't even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit for any of our top MLB handicappers. Click here for free MLB picks now. Also, for a limited time only get three MLB handicappers for the price of one. Click here for details.

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 3:30 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
Free $60 Account Sign Up

Most Recent Baseball Handicapping