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Five To Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, September 5, 2015 Opening Line Report

by - 9/4/2015

Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt

Not a San Francisco Giants fan in the least, but it sure fun watching Tim "the Freak" Lincecum pitch for them when he was in his prime. As expected, his season is over because of hip surgery. Needless to say, you need your hips to be fairly flexible and be a good pitcher in the big leagues -- especially someone like Lincecum who is a little guy and uses his legs/hips as his point of power. He was arguably the best pitcher in the National League in about a four-year stretch and won two Cy Young Awards (2008 & '09) and led the NL in strikeouts both those years and in 2010. Doctors say Lincecum should make a full recovery, but one would think at a minimum his Giants career is over. He really hasn't been effective all that much since 2011.

Rays at Yankees (-168, 8.5)

This game will have live betting at sportsbooks as it's televised nationally on Fox Sports 1. It's also the earliest-starting game of the day at 1:05 p.m. ET. I mentioned early this week that Yankees first baseman Mark Teixiera would at least miss the Boston series and he did. But it's much worse than that. He has a major bone bruise and could miss the rest of the regular season. It's another reason why I think the Yankees are going to cough up their wild-card spot. The Rays go with lefty Matt Moore (1-3, 8.78) here, and as you can see he has struggled in a return from Tommy John surgery, although he has made only six starts. But Moore has allowed at least four runs in all but one. He hasn't faced the Yanks this season. Moore was sent down to Triple-A for a month, and this is his first start back. New York's Nathan Eovaldi is a crazy 14-2 despite a 4.17 ERA. He gave up five runs in five innings last time out in Atlanta yet still won. One of Eovaldi's losses was May 12 at Tampa Bay, allowing four runs over 7.1 innings.

Key trends: The Rays are 0-5 in Moore's past five on the road. The Yanks are 5-0 in Eovaldi's past five vs. teams with a losing record. The "over/under" is 10-1 in the Rays' past 11 in Game 2 of a series. The over is 4-1 in Eovaldi's past four vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Yankees and over.

Diamondbacks at Cubs (-212, TBA)

Arizona is expecting back NL MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt from paternity leave for this game. The Cubs, however, are expected to be without stud rookie Kyle Schwarber likely the rest of the weekend with a rib injury. Cy Young candidate Jake Arrieta goes for Chicago. Arrieta (17-6, 2.11) was the NL Pitcher of the Month in August, when he was 6-0 with a 0.43 ERA, becoming the first pitcher since Jim Kaat in 1974 to win six of six starts with an ERA below 0.75 in one calendar month. He pitched at Arizona on May 23 and allowed three earned in six innings in a no-decision. Goldschmidt is 0-for-4 with two strikeouts against him. Lefty Robbie Ray (3-10, 3.72) goes for Arizona. The Snakes have lost his past six, scoring two runs or fewer in five of them. He has never faced the Cubs.

Key trends: The Snakes are 0-5 in Ray's past five vs. teams with a winning record. The Cubs are 5-1 in Arrieta's past six vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 6-0-1 in Ray's past seven on the road. The under is 5-1 in Arrieta's past six at home vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Cubs on runline.

Twins at Astros (-169, 8.5)

This feels like a broken record, but Twins closer Glen Perkins is out again. He's dealing with back spasms. Kevin Jepsen takes over the role, and he has been about as good. The Twins start Ervin Santana (3-4, 5.40) here. He comes off his best start of the season, also against the Astros, shutting them out over seven innings on six hits and striking out a season-high 10. Before that, he had given up 31 earned runs in his previous 30.1 innings. Astros rookie Lance McCullers (5-5, 3.21) also faced the Twins last time out, allowing three runs over six innings. That was his second start since being sent down for a few weeks to conserve innings.

Key trends: The Twins are 2-5 in Santana's past seven. Houston is 6-0 in McCullers' past six at home. The over is 4-1 in Santana's past five. The over is 5-1-2 in McCullers' past eight.

Early lean: Astros and over.

Rangers at Angels (-115, 8)

There have been some terrible contracts in baseball history. And the Angels are on the hook for two of the five worst: to Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols, although the latter is having a huge season. Hamilton was traded by the Halos back to Texas earlier this season, with Los Angeles so eager to dump him that it ate about $80 million. Hamilton has been largely a bust with Texas too because his body his breaking down. Now the team is saying he likely will be limited to pinch-hitting the rest of the season because he can't really run due to knee issues. You have to love guaranteed contracts. How do NFL players not have them? I digress. It's Jered Weaver for the Halos here, who could make things really interesting in the wild-card race with a sweep of this series. And the way the pitching is lined up, they might. Weaver (6-10, 4.94) has been bombed in his past two, however, allowing 14 runs and 16 hits over 11.2 innings. He hasn't faced Texas this year. Mike Napoli hits .344 off him with three homers. It's lefty Derek Holland (2-1, 2.82) for Texas. He has made just four starts this year and had one of the best of his career last time out, throwing a complete-game three-hitter vs. Baltimore. Mike Trout is 9-for-26 with two homers off him and Pujols 6-for-18 with two dingers.

Key trends: The Rangers are 1-4 in Holland's past five on the road. The over is 4-0 in Holland's past four vs. the Angels. The Angels are 7-2 in Weaver's past nine vs. Texas.

Early lean: Angels and over.

Braves at Nationals (-200, 7.5)

Best batting line ever for Washington's Bryce Harper on Thursday (he wasn't even a sure thing to play). He was 0-for-0 against the Braves with four walks, four runs scored and an RBI. No player had posted that line since 1914. And Harper joined Larry Doby, Joe Morgan and Rickey Henderson as the only players in history to score four runs with zero at-bats in a game. Harper will face Shelby Miller (5-12, 2.56) here. I love previewing Miller's games at this point. He hasn't won in 19 straight starts despite allowing two earned runs or fewer 12 times in that stretch. Miller also has gotten only two runs or fewer of run support 14 times in that run. Unluckiest pitcher this century? He is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts vs. Washington this season. Ian Desmond is just 1-for-17 off him. Harper 3-for-14 with two RBIs. Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez (9-7, 4.13) hasn't won since Aug. 10. He has faced the Braves once this season, allowing two runs over seven innings in a win back in early May.

Key trends: The Braves are 0-6 in Miller's past six vs. teams with a winning record. The Nats have won four straight in Game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0 in Miller's past five on the road.

Early lean: Nats and under.

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