Five To Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, September 26, 2015 Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 9/25/2015

Saturday afternoon's Bay Area interleague game between the Giants and A's in Oakland means nothing in terms of the playoff race. But it's by far the most interesting game on the schedule thanks to a cool move by the A's. That's because former A's teammates Tim Hudson and Barry Zito -- part of Oakland's terrific Big 3 in the early 2000s with Mark Mulder -- will square off. Hudson has been a part of the Giants' rotation all season and is retiring after this year. Zito, who left Oakland for San Francisco in 2007, hadn't pitched in the majors since 2013 until being called up from the minors on Sept. 16. He has thrown one inning of relief but will start here and throw around 50 pitches. It's presumed he will retire after the year as well. Oakland plans to honor its former Big 3 in a pregame ceremony on Sunday.

Giants at A's (+120, 8.5)

Mulder will join Hudson and Zito to throw out first pitches before Saturday's game. They all remain great friends. Zito and Hudson never pitched together on the Giants as Hudson signed on before the 2014 season and won his first World Series ring. Zito, the 2002 AL Cy Young winner, was largely a bust with the Giants but was still a very popular player with his carefree attitude. Zito said that before A's GM Billy Beane told him about this plan and being called up from Triple-A that Zito was sending "RIP" texts to friends bemoaning the end of his baseball career. Neither guy should pitch an inning again after Saturday. Perfect way to go out. Hudson (8-8, 4.20), at age 40, is going great right now at 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA since coming off the disabled list Sept. 1. But he says there's not changing his mind about retirement. He leads all active players with 222 wins. Hudson is not a Hall of Famer but wasn't too far off. From a betting perspective, keep in mind the Giants add the DH, but half their team is done for the season.

Key trends: The Giants are 1-9 in their past 10 against a lefty. The "over/under" has gone under in four of San Francisco's past five on Saturday. The under is 12-4 in Oakland's past 16 on Saturday.

Early lean: Giants and under.

Rays at Blue Jays (-180, 7.5)

It's the current Rays ace against their former one. For Tampa Bay, it's All-Star Chris Archer (12-12, 2.92), who makes only $1.2 million or so this season by the way. He's in the Top 5 of the AL in innings, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. Archer reached the 200-innings plateau for the first time in his career Monday against the Red Sox, allowing a run over five innings. He is 3-1 with a 0.93 ERA this season against Toronto. Jose Bautista is just 3-for-29 off him. Edwin Encarnacion is only 4-for-31 but does have three homers. It's Jays lefty David Price (17-5, 2.34), who might be your AL Cy Young winner now and makes nearly $20 million. He has been largely dominant since being acquired by the Blue Jays and shut out the Yankees on two hits over seven innings last time out. Price's only start vs. Tampa this year was his last as a Tiger, allowing five runs over six innings.

Key trends: The Rays are 2-5 in Archer's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The Jays are 4-1 in Price's past five vs. the AL East. The over is 5-1 in Archer's past six. The under is 5-0 in Price's past five at home.

Early lean: Blue Jays and under.

Mets at Reds (+150, 7.5)

Normally when you see Mets ace Matt Harvey on the mound, obviously you should back them. But Harvey (12-7, 2.80) is on a strict innings limit and this will be his final start of the regular season almost surely. He dominated the Yankees over five innings on Sunday but that's only as long as the Mets would let him go. Expect the same here. The Reds' Zack Cosart is 4-for-8 off him with two doubles. Joey Votto is 2-for-6 with a homer. Cincinnati goes with yet another of its rookie pitchers in lefty John Lamb, who came over in the Johnny Cueto deal. Lamb (1-3, 4.60) comes off his best start thus far, shutting out the Cardinals over six innings. He hasn't faced the Mets.

Key trends: The Mets are 5-1 in Harvey's past six vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in his past five. The over is 6-1 in the Reds' past seven on Saturday.

Early lean: Mets and under.

Phillies at Nationals (-263, 7)

Two teams with nothing to play for here but nice matchup of young pitchers. The Phillies had said they were going to shut down their future ace, rookie Aaron Nola (6-2, 3.84), but here he is again. This could be his finale, however. Nola has largely been good but two starts ago wasn't against the Nationals, allowing six runs and nine hits over five innings. Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth all went yard off him. Washington's Stephen Strasburg (10-7, 3.81) has had a disappointing year but seems to be putting it together now. He has allowed only four earned runs over his past three starts and struck out 37 in that stretch, at least 10 in each. Strasburg has largely been a different guy since coming off the DL. He is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA this season against the Phillies.

Key trends: The Nats are 7-0 in Strasburg's past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 7-3-1 in Nola's past 11. The over is 4-0 in Strasburg's past four at home. The Nats are 7-2 in Strasburg's past nine vs. Philly.

Early lean: Nationals and under.

Mariners at Angels (-105, 7)

Here's something that surprised me until I read it and looked it up: Mariners ace and former Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez has never won 20 games in a season. That year he won the Cy, in 2010, he was just 13-12. King Felix (18-9, 3.54) thus has something to pitch for in his final two starts. He will be on extra rest after leaving his last start Sunday with a stiff elbow. Bit surprised the Mariners are even risking it. Hernandez is 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts against the Angels this year. Mike Trout hits .349 career off him with four homers but 20 strikeouts in 63 at-bats. Albert Pujols hits only .196 in 51 at-bats. Angels lefty Andrew Heaney (6-3, 3.30) has faced Seattle once this year and it was probably his best start, shutting out the M's on five hits over seven innings.

Key trends: The Mariners are 1-5 in Hernandez's past six with five days of rest. The Angels are 6-2 in Heaney's past eight vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Hernandez's past four vs. the Angels.

Early lean: Angels -- they need it more and I'm not sure Hernandez is 100 percent -- and let's complete the under sweep.

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 3:30 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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