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Five To Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, September 12, 2015 Opening Line Report

by - 9/11/2015

Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera

In what classifies as no surprise to me, reports out of Detroit on Thursday were that the Tigers are going to fire Manager Brad Ausmus after the season. He led the Tigers to 90 wins and the AL Central title in 2014, but Detroit was surprisingly swept in the ALDS by Baltimore even though the Tigers started a former Cy Young winner in each game. I definitely expected the Tigers to take a step back this season, but I didn't expect them to finish last in the division. But that's where they are. Hard to blame Ausmus too much as the team lost Max Scherzer this past offseason and then David Price at the July 31 trade deadline. Two pretty good pitchers. It will still be a prime job this offseason as owner Mike Ilitch will spend to win a World Series before he passes away. Two names already rumored: Ron Gardenhire and Ozzie Guillen. Just for entertainment value, I hope it's Guillen.

Royals at Orioles (+109, 8.5)

Is it time for Kansas City to worry about ace Johnny Cueto (9-11, 3.24)? He is in the midst of one of the worst stretches of his career, having lost four straight starts and with an ERA of 9.45 over that span. His first four starts with the Royals were great. One of those bad ones was Aug. 26 against the Orioles where Cueto allowed six runs and eight hits in five innings. Baltimore's Gerardo Parra is 8-for-26 with three doubles and two homers career off him. If Cueto struggles here, I skip his next start if I'm the Royals. They have the flexibility with the best record in the AL. Baltimore's Chris Tillman (9-11, 5.15) also is in a funk. He has lost four in a row and allowed a combined 20 runs over those. He lost in Kansas City on Aug. 27, allowing four runs in six innings. Alex Gordon is 3-for-13 with two homers off him. Mike Moustakas is 5-for-11 with a homer.

Key trends: The Royals are 7-1 in their past eight on Saturday. The Orioles are 6-2 in Tillman's past eight at home. The "over/under" is 5-0 in Cueto's past five. The under is 5-1 in Tillman's past six at home.

Early lean: Orioles and over.

Cardinals at Reds (+115, 8)

Monitor the status of Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong here. He hasn't played since Monday with calf tightness but hopes to return sometime this weekend. Wong is hitting .264 with 11 homers and 55 RBIs, pretty good numbers at his position. The Cards go with Lance Lynn (11-9, 3.12). He has been great this season but was torched last time out for six runs and seven hits in 2.1 innings against the Cubs. That jumped his ERA from 2.80 to that 3.12 mark. Lynn beat the Reds in his lone start against them this season, allowing one run in seven innings. Jay Bruce kills him, going 14-for-28 with three homers and 11 RBIs. Todd Frazier doesn't, going 4-for-29 with 15 strikeouts. Cincinnati's Anthony DeSclafani (8-10, 3.75) is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts against the Cards in 2015. Yadier Molina is 0-for-6 against him.

Key trends: The Cardinals are 8-2 in Lynn's past 10 vs. teams with a losing record. The Reds are 1-5 in DeSclafani's past six overall. The under is 10-2 in Lynn's past 12 road starts vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 7-1-1 in DeSclafani's past nine.

Early lean: Reds and under.

Brewers at Pirates (-171, 8)

It's questionable whether Pirates outfielder Starling Marte will play here. He left Thursday's game with some left shoulder discomfort after being hit by a pitch earlier. It's not thought to be serious and he's day-to-day. Marte is hitting .281 with 16 homers and 68 RBIs. Lefty Jeff Locke (7-10, 4.56) gets the call for Pittsburgh. He generally has alternated bad and good starts for a while. Last time out, he allowed one earned over five in Cincinnati. He is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA in four starts this year against the Brew Crew. Jean Segura is a career hitter off him with four extra-base hits in 29 at-bats. Milwaukee's Zach Davies (1-0, 3.97) made his second big-league start on Monday and beat the Marlins, allowing a run in seven innings. His debut came vs. Pittsburgh, allowing four runs in 4.1 innings.

Key trends: The Pirates are 4-1 in Locke's past five at home vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 6-1-2 in his past nine overall.

Early lean: Pirates and over.

Nationals at Marlins (-169, 7)

I'm really not sure why the Marlins are letting ace Jose Fernandez pitch again this season, but he returns on Saturday. Fernandez (4-0, 2.30) didn't start the season until July off Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched since Aug. 7 due to a biceps injury. He has faced Washington once in 2015, allowing a run in six innings. With a win, Fernandez would tie the big-league record for most home victories without a loss to begin a career at 16. Washington goes with Tanner Roark (4-4, 4.41), who returns to the rotation with Joe Ross being sent to the bullpen to conserve innings. Roark has made seven starts in 2015 and is 3-1 with a 5.21 ERA. He has pitched 4.1 innings vs. Miami and is 0-1 with a save and 2.08 ERA.

Key trends: The Nats are 1-4 in Roark's past five on the road vs. teams with a losing record. The Marlins have lost eight straight on Saturday. The over is 5-1 in Roark's past six. The over is 6-2 in Fernandez's past eight vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Marlins and under.

Padres at Giants (-200, 6.5)

The season is likely over for Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso as he is dealing with a stress reaction in his lower back. Alonso is hitting .282 with 31 RBIs in 103 games. Also monitor the status of outfielder Justin Upton, who had two ingrown toenails removed Wednesday. If I'm Upton, I'm not playing through much considering I'm about to become a free agent and the Padres are done. The "Fathers" face Giants ace lefty Madison Bumgarner (17-7, 3.05), who clearly won't be repeating as World Series MVP because his team isn't making the playoffs. He is going on five days of rest and is 9-3 with a 2.76 ERA with an extra day's break this season. Bumgarner is 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA in three starts this year vs. San Diego. Upton actually hits him well if he plays, going 12-for-33 with a homer. The Padres' Ian Kennedy (8-13, 3.99) is 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA this year in four starts vs. the Giants. Buster Posey is a .395 hitter off him with eight RBIs in 43 at-bats.

Key trends: The Padres are 1-6 in Kennedy's past seven on the road. The Giants have won six straight at home behind Bumgarner. The under is 4-1 in Bumgarner's past five at home vs. the Padres and in Kennedy's past five overall vs. San Francisco.

Early lean: Giants and under.

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