Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Friday September 11, 2015 Opening Line Report

by - 9/10/2015

David Ortiz Boston Red Sox

Is Boston's David Ortiz a Hall of Famer? Only one true designated hitter is in Cooperstown, and that just happened last year with the White Sox's Frank Thomas, who was a superior hitter to Ortiz, although Big Papi has been amazing in his postseason career. I bring up Ortiz because he might unofficially punch his ticket to the Hall as early as Friday. Ortiz hit career homer No. 498 on Wednesday night (No. 27 on the all-time list) and has been raking since the All-Star break with a .333 average, 17 homers and 47 RBIs. Five-hundred homers used to mean automatic Hall induction. But guys like Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro aren't going to get in for steroids reasons. The most interesting case belongs to Jim Thome, who retired with 612 homers. But I doubt he makes it because Thome was a one-trick pony. I believe Big Papi makes it, if not on the first ballot five years after he retires, which is likely following next season.

Red Sox at Rays (-167, 7)

I am assuming that Red Sox manager John Farrell will be back next year if all goes well with his leukemia treatment. Perhaps Boston should gently force him aside. The Sox are 16-9 under interim manager Torey Lovullo, who took over the club Aug. 14. They have won six series, split one and lost one in that span. If Boston doesn't hire Lovullo, some other team will -- he has been highly-regarded for a while. Lefty Wade Miley (11-10, 4.43) goes here for Boston. He comes off the first complete game of his career, allowing two runs and five hits against the Phillies. He is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in three starts this year vs. Tampa Bay. One guy the Rays are expecting back Friday is outfielder Steven Souza. He has been on the DL with a fractured left hand since Aug. 2. The Rays start ace Chris Archer (12-11, 2.88). He was a bit off last time out, allowing five runs over 6.1 innings in a loss at the Yankees. Archers is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in two starts vs. Boston in 2015. Ortiz is 7-for-20 with two homers and 10 RBIs career off him.

Key trends: The Sox have won six straight series openers and seven in a row on Friday. They are 1-7 in Miley's past eight vs. the AL East. The Rays are 8-1 in their past nine at home vs. lefties. The "over/under" is 6-0 in Boston's past six following an off day. The under is 7-0 in Miley's past seven series openers. The over is 6-1 in Archer's past seven.

Early lean: Rays and under.

Brewers at Pirates (-167, 7.5)

Milwaukee catcher Jonathan Lucroy wasn't just an All-Star last year, he had one of the best WAR numbers in the major leagues. But he hasn't been able to stay healthy much this season and has struggled when so. Well, he's hurt again, dealing with a mild concussion. He took a foul ball off his mask Tuesday. Doubt you see him this weekend. The Brewers have no reason to rush him back. Milwaukee starts Jimmy Nelson (11-11, 3.86) here. He pitched really well against the Pirates on Sept. 1, holding them to a run and four hits over seven innings. He is 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA in five starts vs. Pittsburgh in 2015. Andrew McCutchen is 3-for-6 with two doubles off him. The Pirates have lost three straight starts by Charlie Morton (8-7, 4.07). He is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts vs. the Brewers. Ryan Braun hits him well, going 8-for-23 with a homer and six RBIs.

Key trends: The Brewers are 8-1 in Nelson's past nine in Game 2 of a series. The Pirates are 8-2 in Morton's past 10 at home. The over is 4-0 in Nelson's past four. The under is 4-1 in Morton's past five vs. the Brewers.

Early lean: Brewers and over.

Nationals at Marlins (+140, 8)

Washington is toast for the playoffs after being swept by the Mets to start this week. It's over for Manager Matt Williams, who seemed to make a questionable pitching decision in each loss. He was booed in each game and is a lock to be fired. The Nats might now be without first baseman Ryan Zimmerman for the rest of the season. He's dealing with an oblique injury, and those linger forever. Zimmerman is hitting .249 with 16 homers and 73 RBIs in 95 games. The Nationals go with lefty Gio Gonzalez (10-7, 3.96), and he's from Miami. He was knocked around for six runs and 10 hits in five innings in his only start vs. the Marlins this year. Ichiro hits .361 off him in 36 at-bats so he might get a start. Jarred Cosart (1-4, 5.04) gets the call for Miami. He was just recalled from Triple-A after two months down there and was decent against the Mets on Sunday, allowing a run in 4.2 innings. Washington's Jayson Werth is 4-for-6 with a solo homer off him career.

Key trends: The Nats are 1-4 in Gonzalez's past five vs. teams with a losing record. The Marlins are 5-12 in their past 17 against lefties. The over is 5-0 in Gonzalez's past five against teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Which Nats team shows? A totally deflated one or desperate version? I'll go with latter for now, but if they lose this, forget about them. Over total.

Mets at Braves (TBA)

New York can't afford a letdown against the sad-sack Braves after all but putting away the Nationals. To combat that, Manager Terry Collins planed to rest several starters in Thursday's series opener after that high-energy Nationals series. But they should all be in there here. As should outfielder Michael Cuddyer. He has been out since Sept. 2 with a wrist injury. The Mets start one of their talented young pitchers in lefty Steven Matz (2-0, 1.89). He was forced to depart his start Sunday against the Marlins in the sixth inning with a blister on his left middle finger. But he threw a bullpen session Wednesday and is good to go. This is only his fourth big-league start and first vs. Atlanta. For the Braves, Manny Banuelos has been scratched from Friday's start because of elbow discomfort. Rookie right-hander Matt Wisler (5-6, 5.81 ERA) is most likely to step in, but that's why the TBA. Wisler's big-league debut was June 19 vs. the Mets and he was great, holding them to a run in eight innings.

Key trends: The Braves are 0-5 in their past five against a lefty. The over is 5-1-1 in Atlanta's past six vs. a southpaw.

Early lean: Mets, who will be favored regardless of Braves starter.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks (+117, 9)

Interesting decision likely coming Friday for the Dodgers. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins (hand) should be ready to play for the first time since Sunday. But does L.A. bench superstar prospect Corey Seager for Rollins? Seager is a way better hitter but not as good defensively. L.A. starts lefty Alex Wood (10-9, 3.51) on the mound. He comes off easily his best start as a Dodger, shutting out San Diego on three hits over seven innings. Wood faced Arizona while he was with the Braves on June 1 and held the Snakes to a run over eight innings. Paul Goldschmidt is 3-for-6 with a homer off him. Arizona lefty Robbie Ray (3-11, 3.72) gets no run support as you can see. He is 0-2 with a 4.26 ERA in two starts vs. the Dodgers. Rollins is 1-for-4 against him.

Key trends: The Dodgers have won five straight against a lefty. Arizona is 0-7 in Ray's past seven at home. The under is 4-0 in Wood's past four. The under is 6-1-1 in Ray's past eight.

Early lean: Diamondbacks -- Ray is way overdue a win -- and under.

Doc's is offering $60 worth of member baseball picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - you don't even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit for any of our top MLB handicappers. Click here for free MLB picks now. Also, for a limited time only get three MLB handicappers for the price of one. Click here for details.

Read more articles by

Most Recent Baseball Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers