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2015 Emmy Awards Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Raphael Esparza - 9/8/2015

Julie Bowen

It's time to try on a new tuxedo or call your favorite clothing designer because the new fall season TV shows start soon, and that also means the Emmy Awards are getting ready to air. The 67th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards honor the best in U.S. Primetime television from June 1, 2014, until May 31, 2015. The Emmy Awards will be held on Sunday, Sept. 20, 2015 at the Microsoft Theater in Los Angeles, and of course Bovada Online sportsbook has odds on this big TV event.

Last year at the Emmy Awards we saw some big upsets and some easy heavy favorites cash, but who knows what will happen this year on that late September Sunday night. Last year we saw a 50-1 winner in the Outstanding Actor in a Miniseries/Movie as Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: His Last Vow) upsets huge favorite Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo). Of course, I didn't have that double-digit underdog, but that's what the Primetime Emmy Awards give you. There is a money opportunity in all betting categories, and we also see big upsets every year.

Here are my predictions on 15 Emmy categories, and I would highly recommend betting early because these numbers will move, especially the heavy favorites.

Here are the odds and my betting predictions - Odds Provided by Bovada

Outstanding Comedy Series

  • Veep -115
  • Modern Family +275
  • Transparent +250
  • Louie 20-1
  • Silicon Valley 20-1
  • Parks and Recreation 25-1
  • Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt 33-1

(Last year winner: Modern Family, Odds 2-1) This category looks like a three-show race, and the HBO series Veep opens as the favorite, but I smell a dog barking in this comedy category. Would love to see Silicon Valley win this at 20-1, but the Amazon favorite Transparent in my eyes is the winner Sunday night. Amazon Studios is producing some outstanding TV shows, and my prediction for this category is Transparent. Great betting value on Louie and Silicon Valley, and both are 20-1!

Outstanding Drama Series

  • Game of Thrones -110
  • Mad Men -125
  • Orange is the New Black 20-1
  • House of Cards 25-1
  • Better Call Saul 33-1
  • Downton Abbey 33-1
  • Homeland 33-1

(Last year winner: Breaking Bad, Odds -500)Heavy favorite Breaking Bad won last year, and AMC has another show in this category, Mad Men, which ended its series last year. I was not a big fan of how they ended Mad Men, but last season Game of Thrones was outstanding television. Two-show race in this category, and I'm calling for Game of Thrones to win and I would grab this -110 because it wouldn't shock me to see this number be the solid favorite by Sunday night.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Jeffrey Tambor - Transparent -1500
  • Will Forte - The Last Man on Earth 12-1
  • William H. Macy - Shameless 15-1
  • Anthony Anderson - Blackish 20-1
  • Louis C.K. - Louie 20-1
  • Don Cheadle - House of Cards 25-1
  • Matt LeBlanc - Episodes 25-1

(Last year winner: Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory, Odds 5-9) No shock here as Jeffrey Tambor in Transparent is clearly the heavy favorite and well deserves this Emmy. His portrayal is stunning, and if he doesn't win this category I will be totally shocked. Easy betting winner here as Jeffrey Tambor takes home the gold statue, but absolutely no betting value on him to win Outstanding Lead Actor.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

  • Jon Hamm - Mad Men -1000
  • Kevin Spacey - House of Cards 9-1
  • Bob Odenkirk - Better Call Saul 7-1
  • Kyle Chandler - Bloodline 25-1
  • Jeff Daniels - The Newsroom 33-1
  • Live Schreiber - Ray Donovan 25-1

(Last year winner: Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad, Odds 2-5) I guess AMC Studios will go two-for-two in this category because Jon Hamm wins this. Eight years straight Jon Hamm didn't get any Emmy love, but Sunday night he will forget those eight years. I would die laughing if Bob Odenkirk from Better Call Saul steals this win, but again I don't see Jon Hamm losing. Easy prediction here, but again no betting value!


Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series/Movie

  • Adrien Brody - Houdini 33-1
  • Ricky Gervais - Derek 33-1
  • Timothy Hutton - American Crime 15-1
  • Richard Jenkins - Olive Kitteridge 4-1
  • David Oyelowo - Nightingale -275
  • Mark Rylance - Wolf Hall +400

(Last year winner: Benedict Cumberbatch - Sherlock: His Last Vow, Odds 50-1) Talk about a huge upset last year in this category, but I don't see another double-digit dog cash this year. Richard Jenkins and David Oyelowo are the two that I believe will be called and both are well deserved, but only one can win. Olive Kitteridge will win some awards Sunday night, but for this category I see David Oyelowo taking home the statue. Watch out for Mark Rylance; he could spoil the party and I see his odds only getting higher when the show gets closer to airtime.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep -400
  • Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation +400
  • Lisa Kudrow - The Comeback 10-1
  • Amy Schumer - Inside Amy Schumer +750
  • Lily Tomlin - Grace and Frankie 33-1
  • Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie 50-1

(Last year winner: Julia Louis-Dreyus - Veep, Odds -1000) Julia Louis-Dreyfus is going for her fourth straight Emmy win in this category, which is unheard of, but her reign stops this year. I'm torn between Amy Poehler and Amy Schumer, and since Parks and Recreation is no longer on TV I'm going with Amy Poehler. Two underdogs to line watch are Lisa Kudrow and Amy Schumer, and if I can get Amy Schumer around 10-1 I'm jumping on that.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

  • Viola Davis - How to Get Away with Murder -250
  • Taraji P. Henson - Empire +300
  • Tatiana Maslany- Orphan Black 8-1
  • Claire Danes - Homeland 20-1
  • Robin Wright - House of Cards 10-1
  • Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men 33-1

(Last year winner: Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife, Odds 3-2) One of the toughest categories to handicap and I believe all five ladies could walk away with the trophy. My wallet is telling me to pull the trigger on Elisabeth Moss at 33-1 but my heart is telling me Viola Davis. Instead of going with my wallet or heart I'm going with what I know from sources, and I'm hearing Taraji P. Henson wins and think getting +300 is a steal. Wouldn't shock me any of these ladies get called up, but again watch out for Elisabeth Moss.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/Movie

  • Maggie Gyllenhaal-The Honourable Women 10-1
  • Felicity Huffman - American Crime 20-1
  • Jessica Lange - American Horror Story 15-1
  • Queen Latifah - Bessie 4-1
  • Frances McDormand- Olive Kitteridge -500
  • Emma Thompson - Sweeney Todd 50-1

(Last year winner: Jessica Lange - American Horror Story, Odds 9-1)I'm so upset in this category because watching Queen Latifah in Bessie was nothing but brilliant, and I was hoping she would win this category easily but then there is Frances McDormand from Olive Kitteridge. McDormand is a huge -500 favorite and she will be hard to beat, but again Queen Latifah can pull off the upset. Going against the huge favorite and picking the Queen at 4-1.

Outstanding Limited Series/Movie

  • American Crime 10-1
  • American Horror Story +350
  • The Honorable Woman 15-1
  • Olive Kitteridge-600
  • Wolf Hall 33-1

(Last year winner: Fargo, Odds -1000) Last year the heavy favorite Fargo won and this year I see another huge favorite. Olive Kitteridge in my eyes has no competition in this category, and I'm actually shocked that this number isn't higher. Olive Kitteridge wins here and it wouldn't shock me to see this number close around -1000 or higher.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine 15-1
  • Adam Driver - Girls 50-1
  • Keegan Michael Key - Key & Peele 25-1
  • Ty Burrell - Modern Family +300
  • Tituss Burgess - Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt -120
  • Tony Hale - Veep +200

(Last year winner: Ty Burrell - Modern Family, Odds 12-1) If you haven't watched Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt then you are missing Tituss Burgess hilarious acting skills. I'm hoping they don't give it again to Ty Burrell, but I would be thrilled to see Andre Braugher from Brooklyn Nine-Nine win and at 15-1 seems a bit too high. My prediction is Tituss Burgess, but again if Andre Braugher odds keep on climbing I might take a shot at a double-digit underdog.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

  • Jonathan Banks - Better Call Saul -350
  • Ben Mendelsohn - Bloodline 10-1
  • Jim Carter - Downton Abbey 33-1
  • Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones +300
  • Michael Kelly - House of Cards 12-1
  • Alan Cumming - The Good Wife 33-1

(Last year winner: Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad, Odds 2-5) Oddsmakers are telling us that Jonathan Banks will win this award, but not so fast. Ben Mendelsohn from Bloodline or Peter Dinklage from Game of Thrones will win Sunday night. Huge fan of both shows, and since Better Call Saul is new to the program I'm going with Game of Thrones' Peter Dinklage. Dinklage performed his best work on Game of Thrones, and since Breaking Bad, Homeland, and Ray Donovan actors are not in this lineup I believe Game of Thrones gets the trophy.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Niecy Nash - Getting On 25-1
  • Julie Bowen - Modern Family 10-1
  • Allison Janney - Mom -300
  • Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live 50-1
  • Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory 30-1
  • Gaby Hoffman - Transparent 30-1
  • Jane Krakowski - Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt 30-1
  • Anna Chlumsky - Veep +300

(Last year winner: Allison Janney - Mom, Odds 1-8) Allison Janney was the huge favorite last year and won. This year she is the favorite again. A jam-packed category with some heavy hitters this year, and I don't see Janney taking home the trophy Sunday night. I'm predicting Anna Chlumsky to steal this one, but look out for huge underdogs like Mayim Bialik from the Big Bang Theory and Jane Krakowski from Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

  • Joanne Froggatt - Downton Abbey 33-1
  • Lena Headey - Game of Thrones -300
  • Emilia Clarke - Game of Thrones 33-1
  • Christina Hendricks - Mad Men +225
  • Uzo Aduba - Orange is the New Black 10-1
  • Christina Baranski - The Good Wife 25-1

(Last year winner: Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad, Odds 1-4) A group of powerful ladies in this category, and a couple of months ago I would have said Christina Hendricks would be the clear favorite but then came that one episode in Game of Thrones. We all know the Lena Headey "Walk of Shame" episode, and granted that was a body double it was still a powerful episode. Heavy favorite Lena Headey wins this, but keep an eye on odds for Christina Hendricks and Uzo Aduba. These two ladies could easily win this award and pull off the upset.

Outstanding Television Movie

  • Agatha Christie's Poirot 20-1
  • Bessie -1500
  • Grace Of Monaco 30-1
  • Hello Ladies: The Movie 30-1
  • Killing Jesus 30-1
  • Nightingale +500

(Last year winner: The Normal Heart, Odds -1000) Outstanding Television movie usually lands the big favorite, and this trend hits again. I highly recommend watching Bessie on HBO because it was nothing but breathtaking, and again Queen Latifah was nothing but brilliant. Nightingale and Killing Jesus were great too, but no way Bessie gets upset in this award.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

  • The Colbert Report +110
  • The Daily Show with Jon Stewart +300
  • Jimmy Kimmel Live 25-1
  • Last Week Tonight with John Oliver +300
  • The Late Show with David Letterman +250
  • The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon +2500

(Last year winner: The Colbert Report, Odds 1-2) The Colbert Report was the favorite last year and won, and again they are the favorite. But hold up because The Late Show with David Letterman is in this category and so is The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. It's a tossup, and I believe Jon Stewart wins this award.

Raphael Esparza is one of the top handicappers in all sports. Last weekend Esparza went 3-1 $970 in Week #1 of College Football and this weekend he looks to dominate NFL Week #1 and more College Football winners. New clients can take advantage of Doc's no-hassle $60 free picks offer and get Esparza's weekend picks. Click here for $60 worth of free picks.

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