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2015 Breeders' Cup Top Prop Bet Picks for Head-to-Head Matchups

by - 10/28/2015

Danzig Moon, racehorse

This weekend's Breeders' Cup at Keeneland Race Course features 13 different races over both Friday and Saturday with prize purses starting at $1 million, making it the richest horse racing event of the year in North America.

BetOnline will release a full set of betting odds for each and every race of this two-day horse betting extravaganza, but to really dial up the excitement it has already posted a number of prop bet odds for head-to-head matchups in several of the key races on Keeneland's two-day card. I have narrowed my top prop bet picks for these matchups down to the following three.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile- Friday, Oct. 30 (4:10 p.m.)

The Dirt Mile is a Grade 1 stakes race for three-year-old thoroughbreds and older that will be run around the two turns of the main track at Keeneland. It has a total prize purse of $1 million.

The top head-to-head matchup on BetOnline's board has Valid listed as a slight -120 favorite against Tapiture at -110.

Both of these horses have been listed at 10/1 odds to win the Dirt Mile on Horse Racing Nation's morning line. Tapiture comes in at a higher 8.47 rating with HRN than Valid at 7.26, which already adds value to his -110 betting odds.

The main reason I am going with Tapiture in this prop bet is his current form after winning the Grade 3 Ack Ack Stakes at Churchill Downs on Sept. 26. Trained by Steven Asmussen, this four-year-old colt placed second in last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, and this season he has now finished in the money in three of his last four races.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint- Saturday, Oct. 31 (12:45 p.m.)

The Turf Sprint is a Grade 1 stakes race with a total prize purse of $1 million. It is open to three-year-old thoroughbreds and older, and it is contested on turf over a distance of 5 ½ furlongs.

The moneyline betting odds for my top matchup in this race have Lady Shipman listed as a slight -120 favorite against Undrafted at -110.

These are the top two favorites to win this year's Turf Sprint, with Lady Shipman opening at 5/2 odds and Undrafted listed as a 4/1 second-favorite in what could be a very crowded field. Undrafted has the edge in pure speed, and his overall power ranking with HRN is 89 verses a 211 ranking for Lady Shipman.

This is another case where I am going with the better value on the moneyline odds with Undrafted as my pick. Trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Frankie Dettori, this five-year-old gelding has had a very successful racing career with over $1.1 million in earnings. Current form also remains strong with four runs in the money this season, including a second-place finish in the More Than Ready Mile at Keeneland on Sept. 5.

Breeders' Cup Sprint- Saturday, Oct. 31 (2:50 p.m.)

This Grade 1 stakes race features some of the fastest thoroughbreds in the world with speeds upwards of 40 MPH nearing the stretch. It is contested on dirt over a distance of six furlongs with a total prize purse of $1.5 million.

With identical money line odds of -115, my top head-to-head matchup in this race is Stallwalkin' Dude against Ivan Fallunovalot.

Stallwalkin' Dude is listed at 15/1 odds to win this race verses the 30/1 odds on the morning line for Ivan Fallunovalot. Another plus in his favor is a slightly higher rating of 6.12 than his competitor's rating of 5.45.

Even in light of these two slight advantages, I am going with Ivan Fallunovalot to finish higher in this race. This five-year-old gelding is trained by WT Howard, and over the past two years he has won eight times in 12 starts while finishing in the money in three of the other four races. Winning horses tend to win, and while it is doubtful he will cross the finish line first in this race, he is coming off back-to-back victories in the David M. Vance Sprint Stakes and the Remington Park Sprint Cup in his last two events.

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