UPDATE: Beholder was scratched Thursday morning after bleeding in her lungs during her work that morning. It's a devastating blow for everyone that was anticipating a duel with American Pharoah that was almost certain to be epic. With the great mare out, there will be significant impacts on the race for bettors:

1. The public fire hose only has one direction: The public throws money at this race every year, but it will be more intense this year because of the Triple Crown euphoria. Beholder was the one horse that was capable of drawing serious money away from the Triple Crown champ. Now all of that public money will hit American Pharoah hard -- especially because there isn't a clear alternative in the muddy field behind him for casual players now. The price on the champ was always going to be bad. Now it will be horrendous. It makes a tough betting race dramatically tougher. 

2. The pace: There is a real lack of early speed in this race. Beholder likes to sit just off the pace, but she was the one horse in the field who was capable of pushing American Pharoah early and keeping him honest without impacting her own chances of success. Every other horse will have to compromise their chances of running their best race to push Pharoah now. It means that if the champ gets out of the gate clean and is able to get up front with little impact then Victor Espinoza will likely be able to dictate what the first six furlongs will look like. That's not good news for anyone else. 

3. The risk of being crazy: Later on, though, this could make other horses more brave. Before, if a horse were to make an aggressive move to the front they would have to tangle with the two best horses in the field -- horses that were very likely to be sitting first and second into the final turn. Now they only have to deal with one horse. That's less intimidating by far, and makes it more likely that horses will take more risks sooner. The stretch drive, then, will lack the duel everyone wanted, but it shouldn't lack drama -- unless the champ just runs away from everyone. 

Here is the original article:

This race is always a highlight of the racing calendar. This year, though, it is different - the race we have been looking forward to since pretty much the moment that American Pharoah crossed the finish line in the Belmont Stakes. It lacks some horses like Shared Belief and California Chrome that we'd love to see, but make no mistake - this is a gem of a race. Or at least it should be.

American Pharoah will attempt to become just the fifth three year old to win the Classic and the second in a row after Bayern last year. More significantly, he will be looking to become the first Triple Crown winner to win the Classic. He's already the first to ever try. Beholder, meanwhile, will look to join Zenyatta as truly great race mares who proved that their gender is irrelevant. Behind those two superstars are a group of horses that are more dangerous than consistent. Like I said, this should be a great race. The field is set at 10 horses. Here is a look:

American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza) 6/5: I've broken this horse down countless times in countless ways over the last six months, so we'll skip the basics. What do I like about this horse in this spot? He's training great. The distance is no concern. He should be able to dictate the early pace. He's a total freak. What concerns me? He was flat last time out in the Travers, and there is at least a chance that he hasn't filled the tank up again entirely since. He hasn't faced older horses. The price is going to be just awful. So, in my heart of hearts, do I think he will win this race? Absolutely. There are plenty of reasons this could go awry, but he is the best horse in this field right now, and he got a good draw.

Beholder (Gary Stevens) 3/1: She's a freak. She crushed the boys the one time she saw them. Her move around the final turn in the Pacific Classic is one of the more amazing things I've seen in this sport. All she does is win - including two previous Breeders' Cup races. There is no jockey I would rather have on a big day more than Gary Stevens. She absolutely can win this race - and is at least the second best horse here. My one concern - and it's a massive one - is that she has run outside of California just twice, and she looked lousy both times.

Honor Code (Javier Castellano) 6/1: This is probably the third-best horse in the field - with absolutely brilliant breeding for the task - but the gap is fairly large between him and the top two. My big concern is the distance - he has never run this far, and his most impressive win came at just a mile. I really don't like that his last prep race was also at a mile, and that he looked pretty underwhelming in the race - though the sloppy track that day contributed to that. He has no end of talent, but I have a hard time seeing him beat American Pharoah or Beholder if one of the two has their best day.

Tonalist (John Velazquez) 6/1: Last year he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I liked him in the Classic, and he finished fifth with a very flat effort. Disappointing. This year, as a four year old, he just won the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Can he have a better outing in the Classic this time around? His five stakes wins have all come at Belmont, and his only stakes race outside of New York was the Classic last year. A contender for sure, but not a winner.

Gleneagles (Ryan Moore) 20/1: This is weird. He is a top European horse, having won eight straight before a dismal sixth on a tough track that obviously didn't suit him last time out. That last race was just 14 days before this race, though. He has also never run further than a mile and has never raced on dirt. And he's only three. If it weren't for the fact that his connections couldn't be more accomplished or respected this horse would be very easy to ignore entirely. As it is I'm just massively skeptical.

Smooth Roller (Tyler Baze) 15/1: Another very tough one. He's four but ran for the first time in his career at the end of June this year. He has only run four times overall. He has improved dramatically each time, but he has never left California. This is too much to ask here. I think.

Frosted (Joel Rosario) 15/1: I have liked this horse all spring and summer as he traveled the Triple Crown trail and beyond. The big issue, though, is that since his Wood Memorial win he has only won once - in the Pennsylvania Derby against no one. The rest of the time he just wasn't quite good enough, and he has never faced older horses before. Good for a piece, perhaps, but an unlikely winner.

Keen Ice (Irad Ortiz) 12/1: He has the distinction of being the only horse since August of 2014 to finish ahead of American Pharoah. That's something - though it was circumstantial as much as anything. You also have to love his breeding - both sire Curlin and damsire Awesome Again have won the Classic. Still, he's facing older horses for the first time, and I don't like how he has been training recently at all. I'm highly skeptical.

Effinex (Mike Smith) 30/1 and Hard Aces (Joe Talamo (50/1): These two are serious long shots for a reason. Effinex hasn't been good enough - or even close - in his last two outings. Hard Aces earned his spot here in a big upset three races back, and has looked awful in the two races since. Neither seem nearly good enough.

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