Betting Odds and Tuesday's Picks of the Day from the Odds Shopper
by Dave Schwab - 3/30/2015
While college basketball has dominated the betting action for most of the month of March, I am shifting my attention back to the NBA for this week's Odds Shopper. There are a pair of matchups on Tuesday's night slate that offer some solid value in light of the current betting odds on the board. Hopefully, I can get some additional movement in my favor to add even more value to these plays.
The following is a brief look at both of these games where I shopped the odds to try and get the best value for my picks.
NBA- Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets
The Pacers come into Tuesday's matchup with just two straight up victories in their last nine games, but they are coming off a 104-99 win against Dallas this past Sunday as 2.5-point home favorites. The one Indiana trend that did catch my eye win or lose in its past five games is that the total has gone "over" in all five contests.
The Pacers are known for playing tough defense as the fifth-ranked team in the league in points allowed (97.3), but during this recent slide they have allowed 100 points or more in six of their last eight games. They gave up 111 points in last Thursday's loss to Milwaukee and 101 points in recent win against Washington, so even teams that are not known for their scoring have been lighting Indiana up on the scoreboard.
Brooklyn is still battling for a playoff spot in the East despite being 32-40 straight up on the year. Right now they are clinging to the eighth spot in the standings with a half-game lead on Indiana and Boston, so Tuesday night's matchup is a chance to build a bit of breathing room with the Pacers.
The Nets have actually won seven of their last 10 contests, and the total has gone over in seven of their last 11 games. Their biggest win came last Friday when they knocked off Cleveland 106-98 as nine-point home underdogs.
They have been opened as two-point home favorites against the Pacers, but I have focused in on the opening 199.5-point total line for this matchup that is now listed as 199 with BetOnline and Bookmaker. The total has gone over in the last four meetings, including two previous games this season, so I am going that way again for Tuesday night's game.
NBA- Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
When it comes to scoring points, Golden State is at the top the list in the NBA with an average of 109.8 points per game..During the Warriors' current nine-game winning streak they have eclipsed this number four times while averaging 112.1 PPG. Going back to their last loss to Denver on March 13, the total has gone over in seven of the 10 games.
In Saturday's 108-95 victory against Milwaukee as a five-point road favorite, six different Golden State players scored at least 12 points to help pace the win. Going back to last Tuesday's 122-108 blowout win against Portland as seven-point road favorites, the Warriors had all five starters in double figures with Andre Iguodala adding 21 more points off the bench.
The Clippers have strung together seven victories in a row while going 5-2 against the spread. The total has gone over in five of those games. They come into Tuesday's Pacific Division matchup as the second-highest scoring team in the league with 106.6 PPG, and they are allowing an average of 100.3 points at the other end of the court.
Looking back at Los Angeles's seven-game run, it has eclipsed its scoring average in its last six games with a ridiculous 114.2 PPG. The Clippers are another team that likes to spread the ball around. In Sunday's 119-106 victory against Boston as six-point road favorites, all six starters scored at least 15 points in the win. On the year, they have six players averaging at least 10 points a game.
The total line for Tuesday's game opened at 215, and it has dropped to 214 with BetOnline and Bookmaker. I actually thought it would open a few points higher. It was set at 213 the last time they played, and on Christmas Day the total for a game between these two was set at 218. Both contests stayed under the closing line, but I still think there is an excellent opportunity to go with the over on Tuesday night in a matchup where the total has gone over in six of the previous eight games between the two.
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