Betting Odds and Tuesday's Picks of the Day from the Odds Shopper
by Dave Schwab - 3/9/2015
When it comes to handicapping any sporting event, tracking line movement and shopping the betting odds are a crucial part of extracting as much value as you possibly can from the numbers. Small fortunes have been won and lost on a half-point difference in the closing spread, so it pays to make sure your betting odds are always working in your favor.
The following is a brief look at a couple of top plays for this Tuesday's games where I shopped the odds to try and get the best value for my picks.
NCAAB- Georgia Tech vs. Boston College
Two of the bottom-feeders in the ACC this season will face each other in Tuesday's opening round of this season's conference tournament. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets closed out the regular season with an 81-49 loss to North Carolina last Tuesday as 5.5-point home underdogs. They are now just 1-6 straight up in their last seven contests while failing to cover against the spread in five of those games. Georgia Tech is averaging 63.2 points per game while shooting 40.8 percent from the field.
Boston College posted only one more SU win than the Yellow Jackets in the ACC this season at 4-14, but the Eagles closed out their regular season with three straight victories, including a 79-63 upset of NC State on Feb. 28 as five-point home underdogs. Boston College also covered as an 8.5-point road underdog in a 71-65 loss to Pittsburgh on Feb. 24 to go a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four contests.
The Eagles won the first meeting this season with a 64-62 victory over Georgia Tech in late January as 4.5-point road underdogs. Junior guard Oliver Hanlan scored 25 points in that win, and he has led BC in scoring all season long with 19.4 PPG while shooting 46.3 percent from the field. I am sticking with the hot hand in this matchup with the Eagles getting the SU win while covering the spread.
The betting odds for this matchup opened with Boston College favored by a point, and while Top Bet has the same betting line, the Eagles are now favored by 1.5 points with BetOnline.
NBA- Cleveland vs. Dallas
The Cavaliers 89-79 victory against Phoenix this past Saturday as 11.5-point home favorites was their third SU win in their last four games, but they have now failed to cover in four of their last six games. What attracted me to Tuesday night's matchup against the Mavericks in Dallas has been Cleveland's recent record on the total line. The total stayed "under" the 211.5-point closing line on 5Dimes' betting odds against the Suns, and it has now stayed under in seven of its last nine games.
Dallas has also stumbled a bit in its last six games with a SU record of 2-4 while going just 1-5 ATS. The Mavericks are coming off Sunday's 100-93 win over the Los Angeles Lakers as 7.5-point road favorites. The total in that contest stayed under the 202.5-point closing line, and it has now stayed under in their last 11 contests.
Both of these teams know how to light up a scoreboard, with Cleveland averaging 102.5 points and Dallas averaging 104.4 points, so you would have to expect a fairly high total line for this game. Looking back at the recent betting trends in this matchup, the total has stayed under in six of the last seven games, including the only previous meeting this season. Given all of these strong trends favoring the under, I am going that way for Tuesday's matchup.
The total line for this game opened at 202, and while it has held steady with Top Bet it has already dropped to 200 with BetOnline and BookMaker.
Prop Bet Odds of the Week- Kentucky's chances to win this season's national title
The Kentucky Wildcats closed out the regular season with a perfect SU record of 31-0 that included an 18-0 record in SEC play. There is little doubt that they will open as heavy favorites to win this week's SEC Tournament as well. Sportsbook.ag has set the money line odds at an even 100 that the Wildcats will go on and win this year's NCAA Tournament, and the betting odds they will not are set at -130.
I would like the even money odds on the "yes" even more if Kentucky would lose this week to help take some of the pressure of having to go undefeated on
the season to win the national title. If the Wildcats do win their conference tournament, then I would lean towards the "no" bet in this team prop given
just how high the pressure will be dialed up with each additional win in their drive for a national title.
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
Most Recent Weekly Sports Betting and Handicapping
- Best Prop Bets Tonight: MLB Division Winner Odds
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza