Beholder Picks and Predictions for 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic

by Trevor Whenham - 10/23/2015

The Breeders' Cup Classic is, according to the storybooks, supposed to be the crowning glory for a historic year. American Pharoah is the first Triple Crown winner to ever have a chance to win a Breeders' Cup race, and it will be his final race. In a Disney movie he would always win. He has to win against a pretty deep field, though. He also has to beat a truly special horse in Beholder. She's not just good - she's a living legend. So, can Beholder win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Here are nine factors to consider as you wrestle with that question:

She's a girl: This one is pretty obvious - or at least it should be. It is far from common for a filly or mare to run in this race. Only the great Zenyatta has won it. All things being equal, a female horse is at a significant disadvantage to males. Of course, all things are not equal here. She is an exceptional horse. She has run once before against the boys, and she absolutely humiliated them. That was in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar this summer, and a couple of months later I still can't believe that I saw the move she made around the final turn. Incredible. I wasn't concerned that gender would be a factor with Zenyatta, and I'm no more worried here.

Breeders' Cup glory: This is the first time the Breeders' Cup has been at Keeneland, so it isn't necessarily any advantage to be good at winning Breeders' Cup races. Beholder, though, is historically good at it. She won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2012 and then the Distaff the next year. She and her connections obviously know how to peak at the end of October.

The season: There is precisely nothing to be critical of about the season that she has had. She has run in five races this year, and she has made winning look incredibly easy each time. She's beat the top fillies and mares of the West Coast. She trounced the boys in the biggest race Del Mar has. There is no reason to believe she won't be ready for this test.

Leaving California: We've been incredibly positive up to this point, but it can't all be unicorns and rainbows. She has only raced outside of California twice in her 20-race career. It hasn't gone well. In 2013 she headed to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Oaks. She was heavily bet but finished second behind long shot Princess of Sylmar. In June of 2014 she headed to Belmont and proceeded to run the worst race of her career. She never fired and finished a dismal fourth - the only time she hasn't won in her last 11 starts. She's a certified beach bum. It's not likely to be California warm on Breeders' Cup day, and the ocean won't be so close by. She also has had to fly to the race - something she doesn't often do. Can she overcome that issue, or will it become the go-to excuse for a sub-par performance?

Fever: Beholder missed the Distaff last year with a fever. Imagine the terror around the barn, then, when she came down with a small fever as soon as she arrived at Keeneland this week. She missed a work and was subjected to every test possible and an antibiotics regimen. Luckily, she was just fine and is back on track to race. You can't help but worry, though, that the fever was caused by the stress of the unfamiliar cross-country trip. What other impact could that trip have?

Jockey: Gary Stevens is the perfect choice for this horse. They have a fantastic relationship, and he gets the most out of her. He is older and doesn't ride a lot of horses these days, but he has won 10 Breeders' Cup races - including both the Distaff with Beholder and the Classic in 2013. He is a major asset for this horse.

Trainer: Aside from the two Breeders' Cup wins with Behold, Richard Mandella has won six other races on racing's biggest weekend -- including the 2003 Classic with Pleasantly Perfect. He knows his stuff and is obviously dialed in with this horse. If she doesn't win, we won't be able to blame the trainer.

Distance: She ran a mile and a quarter, which is the Classic distance, for the first time two races back in the Pacific Classic. She won by eight lengths, posted a strong time, and ran away from the field down the stretch. She's not hugely experienced at the distance, but she'll be just fine.

Race shape: For fans, this couldn't be much better. American Pharoah likes to run on the lead, and he is likely to be able to do so. Beholder lies to sit just off the pace, and she should be able to do that. So we will have the two best horses in the country chasing each other around the track deciding when to pounce, with a solid field of contenders chasing them and looking for cracks. What could be better?

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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