ATS Heroes and Zeros: Handicapping the Best and Worst NFL Teams

by George Monroy - 9/29/2015

Heading into Week 4 of the NFL season, there are still 10 teams with a zero in their ATS records. Six of them are still undefeated against the spread, while four others have yet to cover a game. If you had been betting on any of these teams, you're either a very happy or very frustrated gambler. The NFL season is all about identifying trends, knowing who to wager on and which teams to stay away from. Let's take a closer look at the 10 teams on either extreme of the ATS pendulum and figure out which will continue to cover spreads and which will not, in this edition of ATS heroes and zeros.

Perfect Against the Spread

Arizona Cardinals

Up next : versus St. Louis Rams

Spread : Arizona -7.0

Prediction : Arizona is a monster at the moment, and even though this is a divisional matchup between two teams that are familiar with each, a blowout is still very possible. The Cardinals are covering spreads by an average of 22 points per game. Expect Arizona's ATS streak to continue.

Atlanta Falcons

Up next : versus Houston Texans

Spread : Atlanta -7.0

Prediction : Atlanta has been king of the underdogs and managed to cover spreads of +3.0, +2.0 and +1.0 by an average of 7.7 points per game. Next week will be the team's first shot at being a home favorite with a spread of seven points. The Falcons could cover this matchup against a struggling Houston squad, but this is a trend I wouldn't not jump on.

Cincinnati Bengals

Up next : versus Kansas City Chiefs

Spread : Off the board

Prediction : Cincinnati's spread if off the board at the moment, because Kansas City is coming off a horrible Monday Night Football performance. The Bengals are covering spreads by an average of 8.3 points per game and pulled off a fantastic late-game win over Baltimore last week. Trusting Andy Dalton and Cincinnati can be tough, but if this spread is anything under six, expect the ATS streak to continue.

Denver Broncos

Up next : versus Minnesota Vikings

Spread : Denver -6.5

Prediction : Most people keep predicting that the sky is falling in Denver, mainly because of the way Peyton Manning has looked through the first three weeks. However, Manning and company keep chugging along, collecting wins and covering spreads. Denver has a game-changing defense, which helps make everything better. Minnesota, however, excels in the role of underdog. This could go either way.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Up next : versus Baltimore Ravens

Spread : Pittsburgh +3.0

Prediction : The big news coming out of Pittsburgh on Sunday was a Ben Roethlisberger MCL sprain after a low hit during the third quarter against St. Louis. The Super Bowl-winning quarterback is expected to be out four to six weeks, according to early reports. The Steelers are now a home underdog heading into this matchup. This streak could end on Sunday (depending on Michael Vick), but bettors should skip it.

Green Bay Packers

Up next : at San Francisco

Spread : Off the board

Prediction : Green Bay's line isn't up because they are coming off a Monday Night Football game. The team, however, looks unstoppable, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers may be on his way to another MVP award. This line will probably be over seven points because of how bad San Francisco has looked. Any spread close to a touchdown has value.

Still Coverless Against the Spread

Baltimore Ravens

Up next : at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread : Baltimore -3.0

Prediction : The Ravens have struggled so far this season, but the team was in a position to grab a win last week against Cincinnati. Baltimore is failing to cover its spreads by an average of six points per game and is not necessarily a lock against an injured Pittsburgh squad. This coverless streak will probably end against Pittsburgh, but the minus three points isn't a great wager to make.

Chicago Bears

Up next : versus Oakland Raiders

Spread : Chicago +3.0

Prediction : Oakland has been surprisingly solid through the first three games, while Chicago has played like a complete mess. Receiving points at home is always nice, particularly against a Raiders squad that is not used to being the favorite. The question is, who can you trust in this game? Oakland? Chicago? I cannot believe I am writing this, but expect Oakland to win this game and Chicago's coverless streak to continue.

Detroit Lions

Up next : at Seattle Seahawks

Spread : Detroit +9.5

Prediction : Detroit is still winless, coverless and losing games by an average of nine points per matchup. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is dealing with a rib injury, Calvin Johnson isn't getting many deep targets, and the team is struggling more than usual. This matchup will hinge on how well Stafford is feeling. There are some reports that his condition is improving. Expect the Lions to keep the game close and cover their first spread.

Indianapolis Colts

Up next : versus Jacksonville

Spread : Indianapolis -9

Prediction : Indianapolis has struggled in a big way early in the year. That is no reason to panic, because the team is still the favorite to win its division. But for bettors, the Colts may no longer be a viable option to cover the spread. Jacksonville gave up 51 points to New England last week, and while any reasonable person would expect Indianapolis to cover in this spot, there is no reason to bet it. The Colts simply cannot be trusted at the moment.

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