Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 9/19/2014
Last week was the first appearance of the Public Action Report, and it got off to a very good start. It identified Virginia's upset of Louisville and nailed the stunning upset of USC by Boston College. Two upset moneyline winners in three games picked - that is why we love the Report. This week we have a more active NFL week, with three games from the pros and just one from college.
We went into great detail about what the Report is last week and will do so again next week. Basically, though, we are looking for situations where there is massive public preference for one team over another in a game yet the line movement doesn't match the public preference. Without further ado:
College Football
Missouri vs. Indiana (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET): The Tigers are, not surprisingly, popular favorites in this one - they have drawn nearly 90 percent of all bets on the game. Despite that, though, the line opened at 15 points, moved through the key number of 14, and has settled at 13.5 - with 13 even available in some spots now. That is a clear sign that Indiana gets our attention here. Some of the public negativity is clearly due to how awful the Big Ten has been this year, but you can't base any particular betting decision on something as general and ultimately meaningless as conference performance. Indiana has a quietly strong offense that has been scoring effectively this year, and they could be able to at least keep this one interesting.
NFL
Dallas at St. Louis (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET): The Cowboys - always a public team regardless of the reality of their play - have drawn a massive amount of the action here with nearly 90 percent of bets going their way. Despite that, they opened as two-point favorites, but that has fallen to one point, and it shifted even further in earlier action. That means that the Rams get our attention in this game. Neither team is a marvel of consistency so far this year. St. Louis showed some toughness winning on the road, though, and their front seven should be able to make Tony Romo uncomfortable. An uncomfortable Romo is not good news for bettors or fans.
Houston at New York Giants (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET): This game opened with Houston favored by a field goal, but that number very quickly disappeared. It fell to 2.5 points and has since fallen to two. Given that the Texans have drawn 70 percent of bets - against a more public team, no less - Houston is certainly worthy of attention in this game. Eli Manning has been just awful this year, and the Houston front seven is going to be able to give him a headache or three during this game. Houston has not been challenged by tough opponents so far this year, but they have taken care of business as needed. The Giants, meanwhile, have looked like a boat with too many holes to plug.
Chicago at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET): The Bears opened as one-point underdogs here in this Monday night contest and have drawn more than 70 percent of bets, yet the line has increased to give them a three-point cushion. Moves involving the key number of three are particularly significant because of how much books don't like dealing with that number, so the Jets are really worth attention here. The Bears could be primed for a letdown after the incredible, emotional performance of their win in San Francisco last week. Playing in San Francisco one week and New York the next is some tough travel, too. Brandon Marshall has been in the news about domestic abuse issues as well, and that could serve to be a distraction to a very important player. The Jets should be able to move the ball on the ground reasonably well.
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