Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 10/3/2014
It wasn't the best week for the Public Action Report last week -- the record was 1-3 ATS, with Miami's solid win over Duke the only game we were on the right side of. There are going to be weeks like that, though, and after such a red-hot start to the season it was almost inevitable that we would run into it sooner or later. This week we come back with four more games -- three from college football and one from the NFL -- in the search for more success at the betting windows.
We won't do another full recap of the criteria this week, but just remember that we are looking for situations in which the public is very strongly on one team, but the line movement suggests they are on the wrong side. Without further ado:
College Football
Syracuse (+3) at Louisville (Friday, 7 p.m. ET): We start off with a rare (for us) Friday night play. Louisville opened as 4.5-point favorites and have drawn about three-quarters of all bets, yet the line has dropped to the key number of three. It actually quickly dropped well below that level and is only now climbing back. A move through three is very significant, so Syracuse is worth our attention here. Louisville is without starting QB Will Gardner, and they have covered only one of their last three spreads.
Northwestern (+8) vs. Wisconsin (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET): The game opened at 9.5 points, and more than three-quarters of bets have come in on the Badgers. However, the line has fallen to eight points -- and has even moved down to the key number of seven in a couple of spots as I write this. That means that the Wildcats get our attention here. Wisconsin has covered only one spread this year despite playing well. Northwestern has won their last two and is playing much better than they were early in the season -- and they are at home after a huge win at Penn State last week, so the crowd should be solid.
Michigan (+2) at Rutgers (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET): Rutgers has more than 70 percent of the action in this one, yet the game opened at the key number of three and has fallen to two -- and even lower in some spots. That means that Michigan gets the attention in this one. The Wolverines' week has been as bad as it could be thanks to the controversy about Shane Morris playing with a concussion, the subsequent PR debacle, and the calls to fire everyone who works for the team by fans. The players could use the controversy as a rallying point, though, and Devin Gardner is back at QB in this one after being benched last time. The crowd will have a very strong Michigan contingent, too, because of all the alumni in the New York area.
NFL
New York Jets (+6.5) at San Diego Chargers (Sunday, 4:25 pm ET): The home team opened favored by the key number of seven, yet that has since dropped to 6.5 despite the fact that well over three-quarters of bets have been placed on the Chargers. That means that we have to pay attention to the Jets in this one. The Chargers are perfect against the spread this year, and they aren't going to maintain that all season. With this game followed by a trip to the Raiders next week they could easily feel like they have entered a soft part of their schedule, and they could let up a bit as a result. The best betting game for the Jets has been their only road game of the year (they pushed at Green Bay, and they haven't covered any of their home games), so they could welcome a chance to get as far away from the intense spotlight at home as they can possibly get.
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