Tracking the Wizards: NBA Picks and Handicapping for Washington Basketball
by Dave Schwab - 11/20/2014
When it comes to wagering on the NBA, a solid strategy that is often employed by some of the top expert handicappers in this sport is specialization on just a handful of teams. I have taken things one step further by concentrating all my efforts on handicapping the Washington Wizards. To help prove the value of this approach, I will also be releasing weekly free picks with the use of Doc's Sports Unit Betting System. My main goal is to earn a long-term profit betting Wizards' games this year.
Doc's will be posting these free picks for the games, so be sure to check their homepage to follow along with my progress. Washington's quick start out of the gate has it leading the Southeast Division, and I remain confident that the Wizards will be one of the top teams in the NBA's Eastern Conference this season both on the court and at the betting window.
Washington Wizards Free Picks, Odds and Predictions
Friday, Nov. 21, 8 p.m. EST (Verizon Center)
Washington wraps up a three-game homestand this Friday night with a prime time showdown against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in a game that will be nationally broadcast on ESPN. Tip-off from the Verizon Center is slated for 8 p.m.
Cleveland is coming off a heart-breaker this past Wednesday night in a 92-90 loss to San Antonio as a 1.5-point home favorite. The loss dropped the Cavaliers to an even 5-5 straight up on the year, and they are 4-6 against the spread. The total stayed "under" the closing 200-point line in that game after going "over" in three of their previous four outings.
The Wizards' three-game winning streak came to an end with Wednesday's 105-102 loss to Dallas as 2.5-point home underdogs. They are now 7-3 SU on the year, but ATS they have been a costly 4-6. The total went over the 204-point closing line against the Mavericks, and it has now gone over in seven of their first 10 games.
Cleveland at Washington Betting Storylines
Cleveland has been under the spotlight since opening day, and the fact that it is just .500 through its first 10 games has every NBA expert in the country wondering what is wrong with James and the new Big 3 in the league. The simple fact of the matter that all the talent in the world will still lose games if the individual players do not play as a team. The learning curve with the new and improved roster in Cleveland is clearly a work in progress that is only going to get better as the season wears on.
James leads the Cavaliers in both points (25.9) and assists, while Kevin Love has led the way under the boards with 10.4 rebounds a game. The third superstar in this trio is point guard Kyrie Irving, and he is averaging 21.9 points a game while shooting 45.5 percent from the field and 46.3 percent from 3-point range. Cleveland is ranked fifth in the NBA in scoring with 105 points a game, but it is ranked 23rd in points allowed (103.1).
The Wizards' fast start has them a game and a half ahead of Miami in the Southeast Division standings, and they currently have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference behind Toronto and Chicago. While they are not the most explosive team in the NBA when it comes to scoring points, there has been some solid balance on either end of the court. Washington is averaging 99 points a game, and defensively it is ranked 12th in the league in points allowed (97.3).
The big gun for the Wizards has been John Wall with 18.6 points, 9.3 assists and 2.3 steals a game, but the team just got a huge boost with the return of Bradley Beal, who missed the first nine games due to injury. This past Wednesday he played off the bench and scored a team-high 21 points while shooting 9-for-17 from the field. Marcin Gortat leads the team in rebounds (8.8), and veteran forward Paul Pierce is chipping in another 12.3 points and 5.4 rebounds while averaging over 27 minutes a game.
Cleveland at Washington NBA Betting Odds and Key Trends
BetOnline has opened Washington as a slight one-point home underdog for Friday night's Eastern Conference clash against Cleveland. The total for this game has been set at 206.
The Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, and the total has gone over in six of their last nine games on the road.
The Wizards have covered in just one of their last eight games at home, and the total has gone over in four of their last five home games.
Head-to-head in this matchup, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the total has stayed under in eight of the last 10 games.
Cleveland at Washington Free NBA Picks and Betting Predictions
Neither of these teams have been a relaible play ATS this season, but the one common thread between the two have been higher-scoring games with the betting trends favoring the over. I am jumping on this trend for Friday night's matchup with a 3-Unit play on the over 206 as defense gets put on the backburner in this prime-time clash.
3-Unit Play- Take Cleveland at Washington OVER 206
NBA Regular Season Betting Record: 1-2 (-$580)
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