NHL Predictions: Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Odds and Picks

It's a good old Canadian contest on Tuesday night in Toronto. These cities don't like each other very much - Calgarians think Torontonians are stuck-up and convinced that they are the center of the universe, and Torontonians think Calgary is full of rednecks and hicks. This one has a personal angle to it. The teams don't play each other often since they are in different conferences, and they have been reasonably frequent trade partners - including when the Flames gave Doug Gilmour to the Leafs for essentially nothing in one of the worst trades in league history - so there are plenty of reasons for this one to matter more than a typical Tuesday night nonconference affair might.

Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Storylines

Maple Leaf captain Dion Phaneuf cares more about this game than most players. He left Calgary after starting his career there, and his departure was rocky. The game won't mean as much as earlier ones for him did, though - he allegedly had real personal issues with some former Calgary teammates, but those players have moved on. He has not been effective against Calgary in past meetings, though. Last year he lost his mind, piling up 24 penalty minutes. Phaneuf is far from a great player or a great leader, but he needs to play well -- or at least avoid being a liability - for his team to win here. He's not the only one facing former teammates, though. Matt Stajan is the lone Flame remaining from the Phaneuf trade. He returned from injury against San Jose Saturday, and he provides veteran leadership on this very young team. Mason Raymond was with the Leafs last year where he resuscitated his career before getting a longer-term deal with Calgary. He will be making his own return from injury in this one. Joe Colborne is another Flame who was once a Leaf, but the young center is injured and out of action. Calgary also has six players from the greater Toronto area, including one rookie playing at home for the first time, so there will be some highly-motivated players for this one.

The Flames are making a change in net - a once common occurrence that has become rare for this team lately. Jonas Hiller has been penciled in as the starter after Karri Ramp had started the previous five games. Hiller started eight in a row earlier in the year, so he now knows both sides of how it feels when a team rides the hot hand. This is by far the longest break he has had this year, so it will be interesting to see how he responds. He wasn't at his sharpest in recent action, so hopefully he returns hungry and ready to start a playing streak of his own.

The Flames have to shake off an unfamiliar feeling after their last game - not just losing but also not getting the breaks late. They were tied after two periods at home against San Jose, and they had 14 shots in the third period in a very spirited 20 minutes of action, but nothing went in for them despite many chances. San Jose scored the lone goal to take the regulation win. Typically this year those have been the types of situations where they have found a way to at least tie it up and then win it in overtime. There is no reason for what happened - a close loss against a good team - to shake them, but a young team with such unexpected success could feel a real hit to their confidence when they lose a game they perhaps shouldn't have. There is no reason to panic yet, but combine that with a poor effort in the first game of a four-game Eastern road swing and we could see the makings of the first slump this team has encountered in this unlikely season. It's something to keep a close eye on.

Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Odds and Betting Trends

Toronto is favored at home at -145 , with the Flames at +125. The total sits at a standard 5.5, and can even be found at 6.0 in spots.

The Flames have gone "over" the total in six of their last seven against the Eastern Conference, but have gone under in their last four road games. The home team is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between these teams. Calgary is 2-6 in their last eight in Toronto.

Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions and Picks

Toronto had an impressive win over Vancouver last time out but was lousy against New Jersey the game before. They are not particularly consistent. They also can't match the Flames right now for effort, or for grittiness. If Calgary can set the physical tone early then they can shut down some players and get into the head of Phaneuf. Hiller's play is a bit of a wild card, but at this price there is room to gamble. Calgary is a comfortable play here.

4-Unit Play #7 Take Calgary at Toronto (+125) (7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday)

Year-to-date Flames picks: 7-2, +20 Units, +$2280.

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