Sports Betting Insights: Wagering on MLB Run Lines
by Dave Schwab - 7/2/2014
This is the time of the year when sports bettors need to expand their horizons given that Major League Baseball is soon going to be the only game in town once the World Cup is over and the much anticipated start of a new football season gets underway.
If you are already wagering on the games then chances are you have focused a good deal of your handicapping efforts on betting the MLB moneylines or perhaps the total line for the games. A third choice when it comes to betting on baseball is the enhanced moneyline odds on the run line. While I would not recommend this type on play to be your mainstay wager for this sport, it still has its place when the opportunity is right.
The run line in baseball is the closest thing to betting games with a spread just as you would in football and basketball. If you want to wager on the favorite in any particular matchup you have to lay 1.5 runs. If you go the opposite way on the run line with a play on the underdog, you then get the 1.5 runs but at a price. Below is an example of a MLB game in terms of its betting moneyline odds followed by the adjusted odds for a bet on the run line:
Moneyline Odds: San Francisco (+125) vs. St. Louis (-135)
Run Line Odds: San Francisco +1.5 (-145) vs. St. Louis -1.5 (+125)
As you can see there is a certain amount of risk/reward in betting underdogs on the run line, while a bet on the favorite minus the 1.5 runs shifts the moneyline odds in your favor.
My betting strategy when it comes to wagering on the run line is to look for heavy favorites where your confidence level is through the roof that they are going to win the game by two or more runs. The betting odds on playing heavy favorites oftentimes pose too much of a risk, especially when the moneylines start to creep up to -160 and higher. The run line option flips the odds in your favor as long as your team wins by two runs. A run line play on an underdog poses the exact opposite scenario. All the risk is shifted to taking the 1.5 runs when it comes to the adjusted moneyline odds. You are better off going with a play on a straight up upset if you think the game is going to be that close.
Betting on World Cup Draws in the Later Rounds
The 2014 FIFA World Cup is down to the final eight countries, and if you believe that the cream continues to rise to the top in a tournament of this nature, then it could be a great time to start wagering on the very favorable moneyline odds for a draw.
Looking back at the matches in the Round of 16, two of the eight finished as a draw after two 45 minute halves and an extra 30 minutes of playing time. The moneyline for a draw in the Brazil vs. Chili match that ended in a 1-1 draw closed at +360 on 5Dimes' World Cup betting odds. The Greece vs. Costa Rica match also ended in a 1-1 draw, and the closing moneyline was +220.
The betting theory in the next round of games is that all the teams left are now the best of the bunch, so the chances that a match ends in a draw should increase. If you look at the pairings on Friday and Saturday's slate, the one match that stands out to me as a solid play is Germany vs. France given just how closely these two teams match up against one another. The moneyline has been set at +228 that this contest ends as a draw. Belgium and Argentina is another close matchup with the moneyline on a draw set at +225.
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