Sports Betting Insights: Tracking Current Form in the NBA
by Dave Schwab - 1/21/2014
When it comes to wagering on the NBA, you need to pay close attention to a team’s current form as even the best teams in the league go through peaks and valleys over the course of a grueling 82-game schedule. The defending-champion Miami Heat currently find themselves in one of those valleys with a 2-4 record both straight up and against the spread in their last six games. They have a couple of big showdowns next week at home against San Antonio and Oklahoma City, but a generally-favorable schedule from now through the first full week in February should result in a return to form.
Indiana now leads the Eastern Conference by 4.5 games on the strength of an 8-2 SU record in its last 10 games that includes a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS heading into this Wednesday night’s clash against Phoenix. The Pacers have been a solid play pretty much all season long with an overall record of 28-12 ATS. They have the highest margin of victory in the league at 9.9 points, and they have been almost as good covering on the road (12-6 ATS) as they have been at home (16-6 ATS).
Another thing to keep in mind when wagering on the NBA is that top form on the court does not always equate to money in your pocket. San Antonio is back on another SU winning run with seven victories in its last eight games, but a $100 wager on the Spurs during this run would have cost you the juice on those bets with a 4-4 record ATS. San Antonio is 32-9 SU but just one game above .500 ATS at 21-20. The trick to tapping the most profit out of current form is to also have a thorough understanding of a team’s historical performance ATS as some are much better at covering spreads than others.
Hometown NHL Heroes
If you take a quick look at the current NHL standings, you would find that 22 of the 30 teams have a winning record at home. When it comes to betting on home teams this season, they have won 54.03 percent of the time SU. There is one team in the league that has taken the concept of home-ice advantage to a whole new level this year with a 20-0-2 record in their first 22 games of a 41-game home schedule. This incredible run has helped the Anaheim Ducks open up a nine-point lead over San Jose in the race for the Pacific Division title.
One of the main reasons Anaheim has been so good at the Honda Center is its ability to score a multitude of goals on its home ice. The Ducks are ranked third in the NHL in scoring with 3.4 goals a game. However, they have elevated this average to 5.0 in their last six home games. Not only did you stand to make a decent return on the moneyline bet during this run ($600) by betting on them to win as favorites, but you could have added another $490 with a play on the “over” in each game. The total has gone over in five of these six games and in 12 of 22 home games this season. The over on Anaheim playing at home should by no means be an automatic bet, but it should be one to be strongly considered given these results.
Super Bowl Underdogs and the NFC
Seattle is currently listed as a 2.5-point underdog for this year’s Super Bowl by BetOnline. Before last Sunday’s conference title games were ever played, the Seahawks were projected to be two-point favorites in a matchup against Denver, but the early money has clearly been on the Broncos once this actual pairing became official.
You can break down this game in any number of different ways, especially with Seattle boasting the top-ranked defense in the league going up against Peyton Manning and the No. 1-ranked Denver offense. This matchup may be swinging the betting public towards Denver in this game, but recent trends has me thinking that a bet on Seattle is the way to go.
The underdog has won five of the last six Super Bowls both SU and ATS, and the NFC is riding a 4-2 SU trend in the last six NFL title games while covering in the last five. This may be oversimplifying things a bit, but there is a reason why past betting trends are always a big part of any current handicapping report.
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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