Sports Betting Insights: College Basketball Under-the-Radar Moneymakers
by Dave Schwab - 1/15/2014
Each week, the world of sports offers a couple of golden opportunities to take advantage of current trends when it comes to wagering on the games. These trends tend to come and go like set of big waves, so you need to ride them while they are hot.
The first topic in this week’s Sports Betting Insights is a couple of under-the-radar college basketball teams that have been providing a huge return against the spread. The betting public tends to focus most of their energy on the Top-25 teams in the nation, but it pays you to expand your reach given that there are over 300 schools in Division I basketball.
Arizona is 17-0 straight up and ranked No. 1 in both major polls. It has also been one of the most profitable teams to wager on ATS at 12-4. IUPI-Ft. Wayne, out of the Summit League, is 14-5 SU this season, and if you would have bet $100 on its last eight games, you would be up $590. When was the last time you thought about placing a timely wager on Pepperdine, out of the West Coast Conference? The Waves would have provided a $660 return so far with an 11-4 record ATS.
As I mentioned, these waves of profit come and go, so you have to remain vigilant in your handicapping efforts. Another WCC team, Portland, provided a financial boon earlier in the season with a blazing 9-2-1 ATS record in its first 12 games with a posted line, but the Pilots have cooled to a 2-3 record ATS in their last five games.
NHL Goals and the Total Line
Betting the total line in the NHL oftentimes offers better value than betting money lines given that there is a bit more predictability in the outcome.
First, you are dealing with a very narrow range of numbers considering that the majority of the total lines are set at 5 or 5.5. If you uncover a matchup between two low-scoring teams that know how to play defense, then the obvious play is the “under”. If things match up the other way between two offensive-minded teams that have less-than-stellar goalies, then go with the “over”.
The Edmonton Oilers have been the perfect storm this season for a play on the over. They have been decent on offense with an average of 2.6 goals per game, and they have the highest goals-against average in the league at 3.5. The overall effect has been a totals record of 30-18-1, and if you would have made a $100 play on the over in their last nine games the return would have been $900.
If you are looking for team to ride the other way, take a closer look at Buffalo. The Sabres are averaging just 1.6 goals per game, which is ranked last in the league and they have a GAA of 2.7. This has been a team to ride over the long haul when it comes to a play on the under with a totals record of 12-25-8. Buffalo’s record on the total line in its last 10 games is 2-6-2.
NFL Championship Games and the Total Line
The biggest event in the world of sports this weekend is the AFC and NFC Championship Games this upcoming Sunday, which will determine which two teams will meet in Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2. Denver is currently a 5.5-point home favorite over New England in the AFC on 5Dimes most recent board. In the NFC, Seattle is now listed as a 3.5-point home favorite over San Francisco. The total line for these games are at the opposite end of the spectrum with the number set at 55 for the AFC title game and at 39 in the NFC.
When you look at the past betting trends for each team individually as well as the particular matchup, they would push you in the direction of playing the extremes by going with the over in the Patriots vs. Broncos game and taking the under in the 49ers vs. Seahawks showdown. The total has gone over in eight of New England’s last 10 games in January and in four of Denver’s last five postseason games. It has gone over in the last four meetings between the two. As far as the other game, the total has stayed under in five of San Francisco’s last six playoff games on the road and in Seattle’s last six games overall. Head-to-head, it has stayed under in four of the last five meetings.
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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