Sports Betting Insights: Betting the Over on the NHL Total Line
by Dave Schwab - 2/27/2014
The NHL regular season took a two-week break so its top stars could play for their respective countries in this year’s Winter Olympics. The league returned to action on Tuesday night with just one game on the slate, but it will be business as usual come this weekend with a full schedule of games.
Time off often equates to rust, and while this will not last all that long once all 30 teams get a few games under their belt, it could provide an opportunity for a few plays on the “over” on the total line over the next week or so. Not every NHL goalie kept busy over the past two weeks, and this can only hurt matters when it comes to teams that have already been sketchy at stopping goals this season.
The Ottawa Senators have been the best play on the over this season, with the total going over in 34 of 59 games, which equates to 57.6 percent of the time. They are ranked 28th in the NHL with a goals-against average of 3.14. What makes the Senators so attractive for a play on the over is the fact that they can score goals as well. Coming off the Olympic break they are ranked ninth in the league in scoring with 2.8 goals per game. Neither of their goalies (Robin Lehner and Craig Anderson) has a GAA less than 2.8, so depending on the overall matchup you can expect their high GAA trend to continue.
The total has gone over in four of Ottawa’s last six games before the break, and it will resume its schedule this Thursday night at home against Detroit before heading on the road to face Vancouver on Sunday and Edmonton next Tuesday.
Speaking of the Oilers, they would be another team at the top of my list but with one main exception. Looking back at their first 60 games this season, the total has gone over 55 percent of the time, which is the third-highest percentage in the league. The Oilers are ranked dead last in the NHL in goals allowed, giving up 3.28 a game, but this ranking may not last long since the addition of goalie Ben Scrivens through a trade with Los Angeles back in mid-January. The betting strategy with this team is to jump on the over in any game he does not start. The Oilers have been slowly working him in as their No. 1 in a rotation with Ilya Bryzgalov.
Edmonton will open a five-game homestand this Thursday night against Minnesota, but looking ahead to Tuesday’s game against the Senators, you might want to consider a high-unit play if Scrivens does not get the start. Another game to circle is next Thursday’s matchup against the New York Islanders depending on who is in goal. The Islanders have the second-highest percentage of games going over this season at 56.7 percent.
Men’s College Basketball ATS Update
The college basketball regular season is rapidly coming to a close as most Division I teams have only a few games left on the schedule before the start of their conference tournaments. The No. 2 Wichita State Shockers do not only have the best straight up record in the nation at 30-0, but they are also at the top of the list against the spread at 20-6-1. They will wrap up their regular season this Saturday against Missouri State and could be a solid play after covering in six of their last seven games.
The team second on the list with the best overall record ATS at 19-7-1 is Cleveland State. The Vikings have failed to cover in two of their last three games after running off seven straight victories ATS, so they could be a wait-and-see team in their final regular season game this Saturday against Valparaiso depending on the actual line. The first time these two met this season, Cleveland State cruised to a 69-50 victory as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The three teams rounding out the top five ATS are Tulsa at 17-7, Texas-El Paso at 16-6 and Stanford at 16-7-1. The Cardinal have covered in seven of their last eight games heading into Wednesday night’s matchup against Arizona State as 1.5-point road underdogs on BetOnline’s betting odds for this game. After that, they will play Arizona on the road this upcoming Sunday before wrapping things up against Colorado and Utah at home next week.
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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