NHL Betting: Handicapping Home and Road Discrepancies
by Trevor Whenham - 12/11/2014
When it comes to evaluating NHL teams over the longer term, one of the simplest but most powerful ways to do it is by looking for significant differences between their records at home and on the road. Playing on the road is very tough - rinks have different characteristics, trips can be long, and crowds can have clear impacts on officiating. If a team is as good on the road as at home then they are reasonably easy to respect - unless they are lousy in both places, of course. If they are far better when they are comfortable than when they travel, though, then there is cause for concern. And if they can't seem to win at home like they should then they could have real problems.
Looking at this too early in the season can lead to problems because the sample size is too small. By this point in the season, though, there are enough lessons to be learned to make it worthwhile. Here's a look at the four teams with the biggest discrepancies between home and road performance and what it means:
New York Rangers (9-5-3 home, 3-5-1 road): The Rangers have the talent to be a playoff team - a world-class goalie, some forwards who can score, and a couple of decent defensemen. There is something in the mindset of this team that is sick, though - and it largely has been for the last decade. What is most shocking about how bad the team has been on the road is that they have no real excuse. They have only played a maximum of two road games at a time and haven't played further west than St. Louis. They have played some decent teams on the road to be sure, but it wouldn't really matter who they have played given their lethargic play. They have a huge natural home-ice advantage given their quirky, iconic home arena, so they are typically stronger at home. When things get tougher for them on the road, though - like a three-game California swing in early January - then things could really get ugly. Their road performance is sabotaging their playoff chances now, and it could get even worse as things go along.
L.A. Kings (11-4-1 home, 3-5-4 road): The Kings are just being the Kings. Last year, and two years before that, they limped through the regular season, doing little of note. They did enough to get into the playoffs but little more. But then the games mattered, and they proved that they are tougher and hungrier than everyone else. This year they are in the heart of the wild-card race, and there is no reason to think that they won't secure a playoff spot reasonably comfortably when all is said and done. Right now, though, they just don't seem to care. They are very strong at home and really average on the road. They know they can get better, though, and no coach knows the buttons to push on his team better than Darryl Sutter. If any other team was in this situation I would be both frustrated and alarmed. The Kings have earned more than that, and until they prove that their lackadaisical approach to the first half (or more) of the year hurts them when it really matters, all we can do is sit back and wait for the inevitable turnaround.
Boston Bruins (9-5-1 home, 6-7 road): What's as shocking as the poor play on the road for the Bruins this year is their relatively underwhelming record at home. This is a team that had the best record in hockey last year and lost only seven times at home all season. It's not even Christmas yet and they are about to match that total. Injuries have been an issue, and the offseason wasn't all it could have been, but the issues here are concerning. If the playoffs started now Boston would grab the eighth and final spot in the East - and only because the caliber of teams in that division drops off dramatically after the top end. They just lost three games in a row in California and weren't really competitive in two of them, so their road woes continue right now. This isn't a broken team by any means, but it is a troubled one. Their problems winning on the road are just a symptom of bigger issues - and it's hard to know at this point if they are going to be able to correct things in a meaningful way this year.
Washington Capitals (5-5-3 home, 8-5-1 road): This is a different scenario than the others and a more concerning one. A team with the talent that this one has should absolutely not be just .500 at home. It's embarrassing. Alex Ovechkin's shocking lack of heart - which percolates through the team - has crushed coaches at an alarming rate in recent years, and Barry Trotz isn't having much more luck getting through to the star than anyone else. They can do so many things well, but not consistently, and only when they feel like it. This record of theirs is so indicative of the problems that face them - and likely will until the moment that Ovechkin decides that he is sick of wasting his incomparable talent on middling teams.
Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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