NFL Survivor Pools Strategy Advice and Predictions: Week 13
by Trevor Whenham - 11/25/2014
After a crazy week in Survivor Pool action two weeks ago, we had a much more straight forward week in our attempt to stay alive last week. Unless you were unfortunate enough to still have Kansas City available to pick - and that was unlikely - you probably were able to gamble and still survive. Cleveland held on - though just barely. So did San Francisco, which kept me alive. And Buffalo overcame snow and relocation to make the Jets look hopelessly ridiculous. So where do we look to gamble and survive for another week? Luckily, there are at least four attractive spots that are likely to be available to most players. Let's take a look:
New York Giants at Jacksonville: The Giants have a world of issues, and they are going to be facing a lot of significant and disruptive changes at the end of this season. That doesn't affect them in this one, though. It feels odd to pick a team that has lost six straight, but it fits here. Thanks to the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. as a super-freak, the offense comes in with the first hint of swagger that it has shown in a long while. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is struggling mightily. Blake Bortles just isn't ready for prime time - at least not with the support crew around him. The offense is far from explosive, and the defense hasn't been good enough to pick up the pieces. There is a risk that the Giants will be frustrated after losing a close one to Dallas last week, and they have not been strong on the road, but they are still worth a gamble in this spot.
St. Louis vs. Oakland: Oakland was impressive in victory last week, but it was a tough game, and the physical and especially emotional toll of the win will be very tough for the team to overcome. It's not like they have a lot of experience dealing with success lately. It feels like last week was Oakland's Super Bowl. St. Louis is much better than your typical 4-7 team, and they are coming off a game they absolutely should have won in San Diego. I trust their coaching to have them ready and focused here, and they will be out to show what they are capable of. There is a risk that the Rams could be in for a letdown after throwing away the win last week. Following their last two losses, though, they have bounced back with impressive and surprising wins over the Niners and Broncos, so they are very good at leaving the past in the past.
Minnesota vs. Carolina: Minnesota is another 4-7 team that is, in many ways, better than their record. Teddy Bridgewater is playing pretty solid football right now and is easy to trust in the right spots. He and the Vikings gave the Packers absolutely everything that they could handle last weekend. Carolina is coming off a bye week, but they have so many issues and so much inconsistency that I am not sure that an extra week of practice will be a positive at this point. The Panthers have not been great on the road - they haven't won since their opener, and that was at Tampa Bay, so it hardly counts. They have also dropped five straight overall. I don't trust them in what should be a very physical game.
Miami at New York Jets: This one is a no-brainer. It's also, incidentally, one of the worst imaginable Monday night games. Miami is coming off a close and frustrating loss at Denver last week - two weeks after an almost as frustrating loss at Detroit. They know that their playoff hopes are fragile but still alive at this point, and that means that they absolutely need to keep winning. They have a manageable schedule - at least to get to 10 wins - and it all starts here. The Jets last Monday in Detroit against the Bills played what was quite possibly the worst game any team has played all year. It was beyond embarrassing - a team playing without an ounce of pride. Miami is the dramatically better team even if both squads were putting in a full effort here. Since the Fins are the only one that is going to show up, their edge is that much bigger. I would say that this game could be the final nail in Rex Ryan's coffin, but that thing was pounded in months ago.
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