NFL Handicapping and Betting: ATS Studs and Duds at Week 12
by Trevor Whenham - 11/18/2014
You can't divide 17 by three. Not evenly, anyway. That means that you can't accurately say that we are two-thirds of the way through the 17-week NFL season as we enter Week 12. If we look past middle school math, though, we can just accept that we have seen enough games played to learn a lot about which teams are strong against the spread and which ones have effectively burned money. By looking at the best and worst teams in the league from a betting perspective, we can learn how they have got to where they are and whether they are likely to keep doing what they have done so far: Here are the ATS studs and duds of the first two-thirds(ish) of the NFL season:
Studs
Arizona Cardinals (8-2 ATS): It's not hard to figure this one out. The Cardinals have the best record in the league, and they have done it despite several injuries that could have been seen as fatal - or at least significant. Despite that, they have won and covered in the last six games they have played. They aren't the most talented team in the league, but they are certainly among the best coached. It helps that they were picked by most to finish no better than third in their division behind the Seahawks and Niners. Muted expectations can lead to more covered spreads when a team plays well. With a tough remaining schedule, though - two against Seattle, at San Francisco and St. Louis and at home against the Chiefs to go with what should be an easy one against the Falcons - the covered spreads may not come as regularly as they have so far.
Kansas City Chiefs (8-2 ATS): Heading into their bye week this team was a lowly 2-3 straight up and just 3-2 ATS. Whatever Andy Reid during that break, though, he should bottle it and sell it. Since then they have won five in a row, covered all five spreads, and emerged as a legitimate contender in an AFC that seems quite wide-open - especially now that the Broncos have looked mortal lately. They have a potent defense, and four of their remaining six games seem quite manageable. It's those other two - at home against Denver at the end of November and then at Arizona the next week - that will determine how this season turns out for this pleasant surprise of a squad.
Indianapolis Colts (7-3 ATS): The Colts were even more impressive through their first seven games when they opened 6-1 ATS. In their last three they have run into Ben Roethlisberger and his six touchdown passes, and then they were totally schooled by the Patriots and the sudden emergence of their running game. Luckily, they have Jacksonville and Washington - the two worst betting teams in the league - in their next two to get back on track and start treating bettors right again.
Green Bay Packers (6-3-1 ATS): Imagine how well the Packers could be doing if they had decided to start their season before the end of September. They lost two of their first three games and went 0-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Since then they have gone 6-1 straight up and ATS, and aside from a mystifying no-show at New Orleans they have looked like one of the top Super Bowl contenders out there.
Duds
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7-1 ATS): The Jaguars have been a massive disappointment for me. They did so much positive in the second half of last season, and I was looking for them to build on it. They really haven't. The shift to Blake Bortles as starting QB is a built-in excuse, but he hasn't played well for the most part. Aside from the running of Denard Robinson lately, they have done little well, and the schedule doesn't let up for them. Barring another second-half renaissance this year, it's easy to imagine them failing to cover a bunch more spreads.
New York Jets (2-7-1 ATS): What a mess. They have no quarterback. Their coach, who should have been fired last year, will definitely be booted this year - and the team obviously knows it. They just don't have any talent. The win against the Steelers last time out was a head-scratcher, but I find it hard to believe that it signals the start of a trend. I remain bearish on the team.
Washington Redskins (3-7 ATS): The Jets look like a model of stability compared to the Redskins. How bad are things in Washington? Fans are calling for Colt McCoy at QB. That's the bottom of the barrel. RGIII has been horrific, and now he and his coach are engaged in a very public nuclear war. No one will win that one, and the team just won't be able to turn things around - especially not with the tough remaining schedule they face.
New York Giants (3-7 ATS): The Giants lost two in a row to open the season. Then they won three straight. Now they have lost five in a row. In other words, they are very streaky. They also aren't very good. They have questions about Eli Manning, and they are likely facing a coaching change after almost endless stability around the organization. Facing all that, and in a lost season, it is tough to be optimistic. The schedule helps them out, though - facing Jacksonville, Tennessee and Washington in consecutive weeks can ease a lot of concerns.
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