2014 NCAA Tournament Seed Statistics and Analysis
by Alan Matthews - 3/18/2014
We have three teams on winning streaks of at least 26 games heading into the 2014 NCAA Tournament, including an unbeaten club, yet why does it seem like perhaps the most wide-open Big Dance in years?
Would it really shock you if No. 9 Oklahoma State, which has Final Four talent but also had a seven-game losing streak during the season, were to upset No. 1 Arizona in the Round of 32 and win the West Region? In my opinion, the West is the weakest region overall with undeserving No. 2 (Wisconsin), No. 3 (Creighton) and No. 4 (San Diego State) seeds.
How about No. 8 Kentucky in the Midwest Region? No team has more future NBA players than John Calipari's Wildcats. Of course, they were the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and the NCAA title betting favorites with supposedly Calipari's best-ever freshman class. The Cats definitely underachieved, but they also seem to be coming together and nearly upset No. 1 overall seed Florida in the SEC Tournament Championship Game Sunday. It wouldn't shock me if Kentucky lost its NCAA Tournament opener to Kansas State or beat No. 1 seed Wichita State in the Round of 32 on the way to the Final Four.
The East Region appears to be the second-weakest, and No. 6 North Carolina, should it get hot again after ending the year losing two straight, is more than capable of reaching the Elite Eight there. After all, No. 2 Villanova can't even beat Creighton, and I'm not a big fan of No. 3 Iowa State.
The South Region may be the toughest, with Florida as the top overall seed for the first time since 2007, the last time the Gators won the tournament (or reached the Final Four). The Gators have won 26 straight, but the SEC was really bad this season, so I take that with a grain of salt.
History has generally shown it's not wise to be on a seed lower than No. 3 to cut down the nets, but look at two of the No. 4s in this year's tournament: American Athletic Conference Tournament champion Louisville in the Midwest and Big Ten Tournament winner Michigan State in the East. The Spartans are 6/1 Bovada second-favorites to win it all and the Cardinals 13/2 to repeat. When's the last time two No. 4s were favored ahead of three No. 1s? I'd guess never.
March Madness Seed Statistics: Don't Fall Into Chalk Trap
With so much parity, it doesn't appear wise to bet on all four No. 1 seeds reaching Dallas. The top-four seeds reaching the Final Four only happened in 2008 when Kansas beat Memphis in a memorable finale. The last four years, only three top seeds total have reached the national semifinals. The last two No. 1s to do so won it all, Louisville last year and Kentucky in 2012. In 2011, not only were there no No. 1s but also zero No. 2s. No. 3 UConn beat No. 8 Butler in that championship game, perhaps the ugliest one in history. That was only the second time at least a single No. 1 didn’t make it (2006) and the lone occasion where neither a No. 1 or No. 2 did so.
Wichita State, despite the fact it's the only unbeaten team and is a very veteran bunch that nearly beat Louisville in last year's Final Four, appears to be the weakest No. 1 if only because the Shockers may have to beat Kentucky, Louisville and Duke/Michigan to get back there. You know Cats and Cardinals fans are going to be out in full force for those potential matchups as they are both not far from Kentucky (St. Louis and Indianapolis). As noted above, Arizona appears to have the easiest path of the No. 1s and never has to leave Southern California (San Diego and Anaheim) until the national semifinals.
Decade Drought For No. 2 Seeds
It would seem like more No. 2 seeds would win the tournament, yet a second seed hasn't cut down the nets since UConn in 2004. In two of the past three years, a No. 2 seed hasn't made the Final Four. This century, multiple No. 2 seeds have reached the semifinals only twice: 2007 & 2012. The No. 2 seed with the best national title odds at Bovada is Kansas (12/1), but the Jayhawks may or may not have star freshman center Joel Embiid back for the Sweet 16. Don't rule out a big New Mexico team upsetting an Embiid-less team in the Round of 32 if the Lobos can get by Stanford; I'm assuming Kansas takes care of business against No. 15 Eastern Kentucky.
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, seven No. 15 seeds have beaten No. 2 seeds; it's happened three times in the past two years. Last year, Florida Gulf Coast upset No. 2 Georgetown and reached the Sweet 16. That's the farthest a No. 15 has gone. American has the shortest game odds of the No. 15 seeds in the Round of 64 at +13 against Wisconsin in the West Region, but that game is in Milwaukee. Ironically, it's UW-Milwaukee that I believe has the best upset chance at +16.5 against Villanova in Buffalo.
How Low Can You Go?
The lowest-seeded NCAA Champion was Villanova in 1985 when the Wildcats pulled off an upset for the ages against Patrick Ewing's Georgetown powerhouse. The lowest seed to reach the Final Four has been a No. 11 three times, last VCU in 2011. Somewhat oddly, a No. 4 hasn't won the Big Dance since Arizona in 1997, although two No. 4s made it last year with No. 4 Michigan losing to No. 1 Louisville for the championship.
Perhaps the most jinxed number is a fifth seed. It has never won it all but has reached the championship game three times, most recently Butler in 2010. If you throw out that year when No. 5 MSU also made the Final Four, a No. 5 has reached the national semifinals just three times since 1997. Bovada oddsmakers don't expect much from the No. 5s this year as the team with the shortest title odds is Cincinnati at 66/1.
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Read more articles by Alan Matthews
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