NCAA Basketball Betting and Handicapping: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 1/20/2014
The Big Ten gets picked on from a football standpoint, and that's mostly been deserved as it usually looks pretty bad in bowl games. However, I thought the Big Ten might be the best basketball conference in the land this season. After what happened last week, I'm no longer sure of that.
Yes, there are five Big Ten teams in the new Associated Press poll that was released on Monday. However, Ohio State, a former No. 3 team in the land, had lost three straight games entering Monday's layup against Nebraska. No shame in losing at Michigan State as the Buckeyes did last Tuesday, but at home to Iowa and at Minnesota? Both were by 10 points.
Wisconsin was No. 4 in the poll last week, but I always thought the Badgers were vastly overrated and in fact predicted they would suffer their first loss of the season last week at Indian. They did, and then they dropped their next game at home to Michigan. It was the Wolverines' first win in Madison since 1999, ending an 11-game skid there.
The Wolverines' resurgence is one of the big stories right now. I left them for dead when star big man Mitch McGary was lost to back surgery, but Michigan has won seven straight to re-enter the polls at No. 21. We will find out if that's fool's gold, however, as UM hosts No. 10 Iowa on Wednesday and visits No. 3 Michigan State on Saturday. I don't expect Michigan to be able to win in East Lansing, but it should beat Iowa, another overrated team. The Hawkeyes are fun to watch as they play fast: they have an average possession of just 14.3 seconds, the third fastest in the nation. They are fifth nationally in scoring. It's like the Iowa days of when Roy Marble was the star -- and in fact his son, Roy Devyn Marble, is the current star, leading the team in scoring at 16.3 points per game. The Hawkeyes are in the Top 10 for the first time since New Year's Day 2002.
As for Michigan State, it could easily lose Tuesday at home to Indiana because big man Adriean Payne is expected to sit again. It would be the fourth straight he has missed because of a sprained right foot. He's averaging 16.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. MSU is on a 10-game winning streak after suffering its only loss of the season against North Carolina. The Spartans opened as 11.5-point favorites against the Hoosiers, and I'd jump on IU with that many points despite a 2-4 road record. The Hoosiers couldn't build on their upset of Wisconsin, managing just 47 points in a loss Saturday at home to Northwestern.
Other Games To Watch
Which Duke teams shows up Wednesday at Miami (Fla.)? The one that looked terrific in slaughtering NC State in Durham on Saturday or the one that has dropped two straight road games? Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski can make some history this week with wins over the Hurricanes and Saturday at home against Florida State. Coach K has 898 wins at Duke and would join Syracuse's Jim Boeheim as the only coaches with 900 wins at one school. The Blue Devils and Orange play their only scheduled meeting of the season on Feb. 1 at the Carrier Dome in one of the toughest tickets to get in SU history.
Top-ranked Arizona puts its unbeaten record on the line Thursday against Colorado. The Wildcats don't look beatable right now, thumping Arizona State in their only game last week. The Buffs might have had a shot at the upset if not for the loss of star Spencer Dinwiddie for the season. Arizona should be able to take care of business as well as Sunday at home against Utah. Loss No. 1 looks possible Jan. 29 at Stanford.
Wichita State should also remain unbeaten this week and will be a solid favorite Wednesday at Illinois State and Saturday at Drake. I thought the Shockers would be pushed last Saturday by a good Indiana State club, but WSU rolled 68-48. It certainly won't be an underdog the rest of the regular season.
Syracuse is the other unbeaten and could be pushed at Miami on Saturday in the Orange's only game this week. SU could be rusty with a week off ,and the Orange only beat the Hurricanes 49-44 on Jan. 4 at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse trailed much of second half and shot just 36.2 percent from the field.
On Sunday, one of the craziest streaks in college basketball is on the line when Clemson visits North Carolina. The Heels are an insane 56-0 all-time against the Tigers in Chapel Hill. It's an NCAA record for most consecutive home wins over one opponent. As inconsistent as UNC is this year, it might be Clemson's best chance for a while. The Tigers' best recent chance was when they had an 11-point lead with three minutes left in their Feb. 10, 2008, matchup. The Tigers give up the fewest points in the nation at 53.5 per game. They have a tough one Tuesday night at No. 20 Pitt, which is a 10.5-point favorite.
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Read more articles by Alan Matthews
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