NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Opening Lines Wednesday
by Alan Matthews - 12/30/2014
Solid schedule in college basketball on Wednesday with nine ranked teams in action. Enjoy it because Thursday the schedule is very weak as the NCAA largely has cleared the schedule for the biggest college football day of the season. Because of the New Year's Day holiday and light slate of games, there will be no opening line report for Thursday. So enjoy the bowl games! Here's a look at three interesting matchups for the final day of 2014.
Penn State at No. 4 Wisconsin (-18.5)
The Big Ten has had some really bad losses this season. Michigan State fell at home to Texas Southern; Eastern Washington won at Indiana; Northern Iowa beat Iowa; New Jersey Institute of Technology and Eastern Michigan upset Michigan; Incarnate Word shocked Nebraska; Central Michigan knocked off Northwestern; Purdue was beaten by North Florida and Gardner-Webb; and Rutgers lost to St. Peter's and St. Francis. So it really should be a conference that Wisconsin dominates this season. The Badgers ended their nonconference schedule at 12-1, with the only loss by 10 at home to Duke. Just one of UW's 12 wins was close: 68-65 over Georgetown in the Bahamas. Frank Kaminsky was a preseason All-American and has played like it as he leads the team averaging 16.5 points and 7.9 rebounds.
Penn State has made the NCAA Tournament just twice this century, but the Nittany Lions also finished their nonconference schedule at 12-1. That said, PSU didn't play a single team that was very good. The loss came in double overtime against Charlotte on Nov. 20. So I'm not sold on this team being a legit NCAA Tournament team yet. Still, the 12 nonconference wins are the most for the Nittany Lions in program history. The current 10-game winning streak is the longest for a Penn State team since the 1995-96 squad opened the year going 13-0. The longest single-season win streak in program history is 15 games (1952). Penn State is 2-0 in true road games this season. Senior guard D.J. Newbill is the team's best player by far, averaging 21.4 points. He has averaged 19.0 points in three career meetings with Wisconsin. Penn State's last win over the Badgers came in the 2011 Big Ten Tournament.
Wisconsin is 17-2 all time in Madison against Penn State. The Lions have never won in the Kohl Center (0-13). The teams played once last year, a 71-66 Wisconsin win in Happy Valley. Newbill had 23 for PSU, while Kaminsky was held to 9.
Key trends: PSU is 0-6 ATS in its past six on the road. Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its past five vs. the Big Ten. Penn State has covered the past nine meetings.
Why take the underdog: The last 10 meetings between these schools have usually been close. And just look at that last trend. This line is way too high.
Butler at No. 6 Villanova (-12)
Villanova will get one of its best players back from injury for this game as senior guard Darrun Hilliard has been cleared to play off a concussion. He suffered the injury in the Wildcats' 82-77 overtime win against Syracuse on Dec. 20. Hilliard still played 35 minutes in that game and had 23 points, five rebounds and four steals. He missed last Tuesday's blowout of New Jersey Institute of Technology. Hilliard leads the team in scoring (12.8 ppg) and steals (2.2 per game). Villanova made it through the nonconference schedule unbeaten, including quality wins over VCU, Michigan, Illinois and that Syracuse game.
Butler is a solid 10-3 considering that head coach Brandon Miller was lost before the season to an indefinite leave of absence for medical reasons. He's not expected back this year if at all. The Bulldogs have beaten North Carolina and Georgetown (that didn't count as a Big East game as it was in the Bahamas) and lost to Oklahoma, Tennessee and Indiana. Butler is very strong defensively, allowing only 56.2 points per game.
Villanova swept the season series last season: 76-73 in overtime in Indianapolis and 67-48 in Philadelphia.
Key trends: Villanova is 4-1 ATS in their past five vs. the Big East. Butler has covered only three of its past 13 on the road vs. teams with a winning home record.
Why take the favorite: If Hilliard was still out I would have leaned Butler.
No. 15 St. John's at Seton Hall (+1)
It's the Big East opener for both teams, and St. John's looks like the clear top competition for Villanova in that conference. The Red Storm's 11-1 start is the program's best since 1985-86. Nine of the Johnnies' wins have been by double digits, with the best being 69-57 at old Big East rival Syracuse on Dec. 6. Even the loss was very acceptable, a 73-66 defeat to an excellent Gonzaga team at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 28. The team's leading scorer is D'Angelo Harrison, whose 19.0 points per game rank second in the Big East. St. John's has been one of the top defensive teams in the country this season ranking sixth in blocked shots (6.9), 25th in steals (8.9) and 31st in points allowed per game (58.2). The team also leads the conference in rebounding, with three guys grabbing at least 6.5 boards per game.
Seton Hall is off to 10-2 start and is 6-0 at home. The Pirates' losses came at Wichita State and at Georgia. The team will not be at full strength entering conference play. Heralded freshman Isaiah Whitehead recently suffered a stress fracture in his foot and his return is indefinite. He will be evaluated weekly. The Big East's preseason choice for rookie of the year, Whitehead averaged 11.9 points and 4.3 rebounds and had started every game.
The Red Storm have won the last three contests against Seton Hall. Both wins last season came by one point.
Key trends: The Pirates are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 games. The Red Storm are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 vs. the Big East. Seton Hall has covered six straight vs. St. John's at home.
Why take the favorite: If Whitehead were playing I'd probably take Seton Hall to win outright. But giving just one point is great value.
Doc's Sports has the best group of college basketball handicappers on the planet with our awesome Advisory Board lineup of experts.Look at some of their results here. They know how to exploit the loopholes in the oddsmakers' handicapping, and the incredible results tell the story. New clients can try out picks for free from any Advisory Board handicapper on the Web site. Click here to get two days of college basketball picks for free - no hassle and no credit card needed.
Read more articles by Alan Matthews
Most Recent College Basketball Handicapping
- Expert College Basketball Handicapping: Major Conference Dark Horses
- Expert College Basketball Handicapping: Mid Major Dark Horses
- 2024-25 Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship
- 3-for-1 anniversary college basketball picks special offer
- Non Conference College Basketball Betting Loophole
- 2024-25 Alabama Crimson Tide Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship
- 2024-25 Iowa State Cyclones Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship
- 2024-25 Houston Cougars Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship
- 2024-25 Connecticut Huskies Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship
- 2024-25 Gonzaga Bulldogs Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship