NBA Odds: Tuesday, April 22, 2014 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 4/21/2014
It's probably fair to call Tuesday's three Game 2s in the NBA playoffs all must wins for the home teams because each of them was upset in Game 1. And Game 1 winners take best-of-7 playoffs series more than 75 percent of the time as it is. Here's a look at each game on the schedule.
Hawks at Pacers (-7, 187)
I don't think any home team needs a win more in Game 2 than the Pacers -- another defeat Tuesday would probably shatter whatever shred of confidence this team may have left. The Pacers have to figure out how to deal with Atlanta's Jeff Teague as he dominated Game 1 with 28 points. Don't be surprised if Indiana's answer is to sit point guard George Hill a bit more and use defensive dynamo Paul George on Teague -- like the Heat do with LeBron James on the Tony Parkers or Derrick Roses (when healthy) of the world. The Hawks simply know how to win in Indiana as it was their second straight there, and they are unbeaten this season when Pero Antic plays against Indiana. Pero Antic!
It goes without saying Frank Vogel must be fired if Indiana loses this series, but I wonder what will be done with all-star center Roy Hibbert, who has been in a major funk for months. He hasn't made a single shot outside the paint in his past six games and is just 7-for-24 inside the paint in that stretch. The entire Indiana frontcourt struggled in Game 1, with Atlanta's Paul Millsap the best player down there. Indiana is now 15-14 since trading Danny Granger with a negative-2.4 point differential. The Pacers became the fourth No. 1 seed to lose Game 1 in the first round since the NBA moved to a best-of-7 format. The last two also lost the series.
Key trends: The Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their past six games. Indiana is 2-10 ATS in its past 12 at home. The "over" is 4-0 in Indiana's past four at home.
Sportsbook.ag updated series line: Pacers -205, Hawks +175
Early lean: This looks to be either a Pacers blowout or Hawks victory and no in between -- i.e. no close Indiana victory. I'm leaning blowout, but I would find it fascinating to see what happens with the Pacers should they lose again. Has a coach ever been fired during a playoff series?
Nets at Raptors (-4.5, 187.5)
After watching the Pacers and Bulls lose, there's little doubt at this point that the Brooklyn Nets are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference right now and the rest of the series don't matter other than Heat-Nets in Round 2. Brooklyn is looking smart for tanking into the sixth seed following Saturday's 94-87 win -- and getting that extra day off hugely benefits the veteran Nets. Deron Williams had his best game in weeks with 24 points against Toronto. That's nearly 10 more than his regular-season average. Joe Johnson was also very good with 24 points and eight rebounds. The Nets turned the ball over only eight times. Raptors leading scorer DeMar DeRozan can take the blame for that loss, shooting just 3-for-13 from the field and with as many turnovers as rebounds and assists. Kyle Lowry (22 points) and Jonas Valanciunas (17 points, 18 rebounds) were good for Toronto, but that's about it. The Raptors shot 39.4 percent, and the Nets are now 17-0 this season when holding a team under 40 percent from the field.
I'm presuming the shot clock will work in this game. If you saw Saturday's it went out in the third quarter and they couldn't get it fixed. Apparently it was ESPN's fault. Of course it was. The P.A. announcer had to call out the shot-clock time in intervals. It was annoying as heck. BTW, great Toronto Sun headline leading into the game: "Raptors vs. Dinosaurs," referring to Brooklyn playoff greybeards Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.
Key trends: Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in its past five following a win. The Raptors have covered just one of their past seven games overall. The over is 7-3 in Brooklyn's past 10 against teams with a winning record. The over is 6-1 in Toronto's past seven home games. The "under" is 5-1 in the past six in Toronto.
Sportsbook.ag updated series line: Nets -285, Raptors +230
Early lean: The Raptors play with desperation and win but the Nets cover.
Wizards at Bulls (-5.5, 181.5)
I'm not sure that Washington's 102-93 victory in Game 1 was much of a surprise. The Wizards ended the season much stronger than Chicago, and the only time the Bulls beat Washington during the regular season was when Nene didn't play. He was the story of Game 1, hitting 11-of-17 from the field for 24 points. Marcin Gortat had 15 points and 13 rebounds, and the Washington frontcourt was much better than the Bulls'.
That's going to be a huge issue going forward if it continues because the Wizards' backcourt is better than Chicago's even though John Wall and Bradley Beal were only 7-for-25 combined. The Bulls have no chance if D.J. Augustin isn't better in Game 2. He was 3-for-15. Chicago had just six points in the final 5:30. The Wizards began their rally from a 13-point third-quarter hole when veteran guard Andre Miller replaced Wal,l and he pretty much had his way offensively with the smaller Augustin.
Key trends: Washington is 5-0 ATS in its past five games. Chicago is 12-1 ATS in its past 13 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The over is 4-1 in Washington's past five against teams with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Chicago's past four at home. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their past five in Chicago.
Sportsbook.ag updated series line: Wizards -150, Bulls +130
Early lean: The Bulls haven't lost back-to-back games since the start of February and usually bounce back after a lousy defensive effort. They win and cover.
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