NBA Odds: Saturday, March 15, 2014 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/14/2014
Not a terrific schedule on Saturday with only one game likely featuring playoff teams: Brooklyn at Washington. Denver at Atlanta is the lone national TV game of the night (NBATV) if perusing live betting opportunities. Here's what you need to know for all of Saturday's games, in order of tipoff.
Bucks at Knicks (-10, 206.5)
Milwaukee lost 102-97 in Atlanta on Thursday night to fall to 5-26 on the road. The Bucks did get big man Ersan Ilyasova back from a one-game injury absence, and he had 22 points and 10 rebounds. However, the Bucks were only 3-for-19 from 3-point range. Their last road win was Feb. 24 at, naturally, Philadelphia. That's Milwaukee's only road win of 2014.
The Knicks have very much taken advantage of a soft stretch in their schedule by winning five straight games to keep their playoff hopes alive. Tyson Chandler missed the past two because of a personal matter but should play in this one. Amare Stoudemire also should be back after getting Wednesday night's 116-92 rout of Boston off to rest his knee. New York leads the season series 2-1 but lost the last one, 101-98 in Milwaukee on Feb. 3 as Brandon Knight hit the winning 3-pointer with 1.4 seconds left. The Bucks entered that one having lost six straight.
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Key trends: Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its past seven on the road. The under is 5-0 in the past five meetings in NYC.
Early lean: New York has won four straight in this series at the Garden and should have little trouble making it five. The noon start benefits the Knicks as you can bet the Bucks players will be out late Friday enjoying Manhattan.
Nets at Wizards (pick'em, 199)
I'm really starting to think Brooklyn is a true Eastern Conference contender as it enters having won three straight, including home wins over playoff teams Toronto and Miami. Paul Pierce looked like he was in his prime with 29 points in the win over the Heat. The Nets are winning without Kevin Garnett, who has missed the past seven games with a back problem. They only got KG for the playoffs, so no need to rush him, and he won't play in this one, either. It's questionable whether forward Andrei Kirilenko will play after missing the past two with an ankle injury. It's the second of a back-to-back for Washington, which has to fly up from Orlando late Friday night. The Wizards are 2-0 against the Nets this year, but both were early in the season when Brooklyn was struggling.
Key trends: Nets are 1-7 ATS in their past eight in Washington. The over is 4-1 in Washington's past five in the second of a back-to-back.
Early lean: Even with Washington on the second of a back-to-back, I could see a letdown for Brooklyn after that big Miami win, so I lean Wizards.
Nuggets at Hawks (-4.5, TBA)
About the only reason I can see for why no opening total here is how bad Denver is beaten in Miami on Friday night. It's probably going to be by a lot as the Heat had been struggling and will be very fired up to turn things around and not lose a second straight home game. The Hawks have won two straight for the first time in 2014 and may hang onto that final playoff spot after all. Sixth man Lou Williams is expected to play in this one after missing the past four. On Nov. 7 in Denver, the Nuggets beat Atlanta 109-107. That was the first victory for new Nuggets coach Brian Shaw. Paul Millsap missed a short jumper with 1.9 seconds left for the tie, and Al Horford then missed a putback off the rebound.
Key trends: Denver is 2-10 ATS in its past 12 in the second of a back-to-back. The over is 10-1 in Atlanta's past 11 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Early lean: Hawks have something to play for and Nuggets don't. Easy call.
Pacers at Pistons (+6.5, 202)
Indiana played in Philadelphia on Friday night, so this one almost doesn't even count as the second of a back-to-back. Center Andrew Bynum sat that one out for the Pacers after a strong debut on Tuesday against Boston, but he will be good to go against the big Detroit frontcourt. Pacers reserve guard C.J. Watson was expected to return Friday after missing four games with an elbow injury. Detroit's playoff hopes are disappearing as it 2-5 this month. The Pistons are 1-1 against Indiana this year and handed the Pacers their first home loss on Dec. 16, but that was a huge trap game for Indiana.
Key trends: Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 10-1 in Detroit's past 11 against teams with a winning percentage over .600.
Early lean: Indiana simply doesn't look like the same team since the break, and I think the Pistons get fired up for this one and could even pull the straight-up upset.
Grizzlies at 76ers (+13.5, 200)
I no longer have a doubt that Memphis will make the playoffs barring a big injury. The Grizz had won four straight heading into Friday night's tough one in Toronto. I could see a loss there, meaning it's even more unlikely the Sixers can pull the upset in this one. First meeting of the season between these two. That's pretty unusual this late in the season, even for teams in different conferences.
Key trends: Memphis is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 against teams with a losing home record. The under is 9-0 in Philly's past nine in the second of a back-to-back.
Early lean: No opinion here because both on a back-to-back and thus double the chance of an important injury from Friday that could affect this one. Plus, if Philly somehow upsets the Pacers, that would change the whole dynamic of this game. Memphis will win regardless, but if the Sixers play well Friday and nearly win they might be confident enough to cover here.
Kings at Bulls (-7, 192)
Sacramento plays pretty well against the East overall -- five wins of its 11 wins against that conference have been blowout victories -- but not against the good teams. Witness recent blowouts of the Bucks and Sixers but one-sided losses to the Raptors and Nets. Probably one of the five-worst games the Bulls have played, at least considering the competition, under Tom Thibodeau was Feb. 3 in Sacramento when Chicago was bombed 99-70. The Kings had entered that one on a seven-game skid. DeMarcus Cousins dominated the first quarter with 11 points and seven boards, and the Kings led by 12. It wouldn't be close the rest of the way. That was also the game Joakim Noah was ejected in the third quarter after cussing out the officials.
Key trends: The Kings are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 6-1 in Chicago's past seven after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.
Early lean: Bulls will want major payback for the first meeting and get it.
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