NBA Odds and Predictions: Saturday, November 22 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 11/21/2014
One of the NBA's most-heated rivalries, fueled in large part by Dallas owner Mark Cuban, is Mavericks-Rockets. They meet for the first time this season on Saturday night in the marquee matchup on the schedule. Expect a rude welcome back to Houston for Mavericks swingman Chandler Parsons after he left the Rockets this past offseason when Cuban lured him with a three-year, $45 million offer as a restricted free agent. Of course, it's not Parsons' fault that the Rockets decided not to match. Here's a look at every game on the schedule
Heat at Magic (TBA)
Second of a back-to-back for Orlando as it visited Charlotte on Friday night. Miami lost to the Los Angeles Clippers 110-93 at home on Thursday, a result I projected if the Heat were to play without Dwayne Wade. They did as Wade missed his fourth consecutive game with a strained left hamstring (this is why LeBron left). The Heat are 5-3 when Wade plays this season, 1-3 when he doesn't. Obviously no line due here to his status. Luol Deng returned after missing one game with an injury, but the Heat lost point guard Norris Cole to a dislocated finger on his left hand in the first half. Cole starts now for the Heat, and his status is TBA. Miami has won nine straight in this series, but of course those were all with LeBron.
Key trends: The Heat have failed to cover their past four against teams with a losing record. The "over/under" has gone over in five of the past six meetings.
Early lean: Orlando wins outright if Wade sits.
Suns at Pacers (+2.5, 200)
Second of a back-to-back for Phoenix and in some ways you have to wait to bet on this game to see what happened there. I only say this because the Suns visited the 76ers, and if they lost that one, they are going to be embarrassed and play with a lot more intensity here. But I don't really expect a Phoenix loss. Indiana is playing better than I expected and has won four of five after starting 1-6. The Pacers beat Charlotte 88-86 on Wednesday on Solomon Hill's tip-in with 0.7 seconds left. Indiana got back guard Rodney Stuckey from injury in that one, but starters David West and George Hill remain out. Reserve guard. C.J. Miles might return for this one.
Key trends: The Suns have covered the past seven meetings. The under is 4-1 in Indiana's past five at home.
Early lean: Pacers playing well, Suns on a back-to-back and Indiana is a dog? Love that. Take the Pacers.
Raptors at Cavaliers (-4, 209.5)
End of a tough three-game stretch for LeBron James and Co. as the Cavs lost at home to San Antonio on Wednesday, played at a very good Washington team on Friday and then back home vs. Toronto, the team with the best record in the East. It's the second of a back-to-back for the Raptors as well as they hosted Milwaukee on Friday night. This will be Toronto's first road game since Nov. 5. I'd tell you what the Raptors-Cavs 2013-14 season series was, but what would be the point pre-LeBron?
Key trends: Toronto has covered one of its past five in the second of a back-to-back. The over is 13-3 in the Raptors' past 16 playing with zero days of rest.
Early lean: Cavaliers and under. Bet huge on Cavs if they lose at the Wizards on Friday.
76ers at Knicks (-11.5, 202)
Ah, Philadelphia. Just so we are clear, I agree with the vast majority of "experts" this week who said that nine times out of 10 the 76ers would beat Kentucky by double digits if they played. It's still men against boys, even if UK has better pro prospects than Philly currently does. A Vegas book said it would list the 76ers as 16-point favorites in a game with the Wildcats. The Knicks get the Sixers on the second of a back-to-back as Philly hosted Phoenix on Friday. New York has lost two straight, allowing 116.0 points per game in that mini-slump. It appears that two Knicks will make their season debuts in this one: point guard Jose Calderon (that's big) and forward Andrea Bargnani (that's not). New York won three of four vs. Philly last year.
Key trends: The Sixers are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 4-1 in the past five in New York.
Early lean: The Knicks shouldn't be double-digits favorites against anyone. Take the points.
Kings at Timberwolves (+5, 207)
Second of a back-to-back for Minnesota as it hosted San Antonio on Friday. The Wolves were expected to be without starters Thaddeus Young and Nikola Pekovic, and both are going to miss this one as well. Of course Ricky Rubio is out for weeks. I called a Kings outright win over Chicago on Thursday, and Sacramento rolled 103-88 against a Bulls team missing Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol. DeMarcus Cousins dominated with 22 points and 14 rebounds. The Kings and Wolves split four meetings last year.
Key trends: Minnesota is 4-17 ATS in its past 21 in the second of a back-to-back. The road team has covered five of the past six meetings.
Early lean: Kings and over.
Mavericks at Rockets (TBA)
Second of a back-to-back for Dallas as it hosted the L.A. Lakers on Friday. The big news here is that Rockets center Dwight Howard is likely to sit out with a knee injury. Thus, no early line. Been a rough week for Howard as he's also dealing with potential child abuse charges a la Adrian Peterson. Houston has lost two straight and not topped 93 points in either. Howard played in a blowout loss to Memphis on Monday but not in Wednesday's surprising home defeat to the Lakers. These teams already didn't much care for each other, and it went up a notch this offseason when the Mavs stole away Parsons. Houston not matching that offer was part of the Chris Bosh fallout from him spurning Houston.
Key trends: The home team has covered five of the past seven meetings. The over is 4-0 in the past four.
Early lean: Go over regardless as Houston's defense is totally different without Howard in there.
Nets at Spurs (-8.5, 194.5)
Double back-to-back here as San Antonio visited Minnesota on Friday and Brooklyn was in Oklahoma City. Obviously this line could change if Gregg Popovich rests some guys in the second of a back-to-back, although he usually doesn't do it in a home game. These two teams split last season, each winning at home by blowout. Brooklyn has dropped 11 straight in San Antonio.
Key trends: The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their past six in the second of a back-to-back. The under is 5-1 in San Antonio's past six at home.
Early lean: Spurs and over.
Wizards at Bucks (+2.5, 198.5)
This looks all the world like a major letdown game for Washington after the Wizards got their first crack at LeBron James and the Cavaliers on Friday night. Milwaukee had its own tough one, playing in Toronto. Keep an eye on the status of the "Greek Freak," the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo. He was questionable Friday with a right ankle sprain. Washington beat visiting Milwaukee 108-97 on Nov. 1. Paul Pierce was ejected right before halftime in that one. Nene and Marcin Gortat combined for 42 points for the Wiz, who didn't have Bradley Beal back then. Milwaukee turned it over 28 times.
Key trends: Washington is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series. The over is 5-1 in the past six.
Early lean: Bucks and under.
Pelicans at Jazz (+4, 204)
New Orleans had to play in the thin air of Denver on Friday night and then travel to the thin air of Salt Lake City. That's never easy to do. Utah, meanwhile, had to visit Golden State on Friday before flying back. Expect two very tired teams here. Pelicans center Omer Asik had missed two straight games entering Friday with lower back pain and was questionable, so he's obviously quite iffy for this game. Utah and New Orleans split four meetings last season, each sweeping at home.
Key trends: New Orleans has failed to cover the past five meetings. The over is 4-0 in the past four.
Early lean: Jazz and over.
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