NBA Odds and Predictions: Saturday, December 13 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/12/2014
It's the most depressing Saturday since August from a sports betting perspective this week as the college football regular season has concluded -- well, you still have Army-Navy if that's your thing. The good news is that the NBA can partially fill the void with a 2 p.m. ET tip between Golden State and Dallas, which should be a great, high-scoring game. The Warriors look like the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls right now -- that historic team also started 19-2. Here's a look at every game on Saturday's schedule.
Warriors at Mavericks (+2.5, 211.5)
The Warriors are insanely hot right now with a 14-game winning streak, and Steve Kerr -- a member of that 72-win Bulls team -- is the first coach to ever win 19 of his first 21 games. They beat Houston for the second time this season by double digits Wednesday, 105-93. Klay Thompson had 21 points and Steph Curry 20 points, seven assists and seven rebounds. Golden State has won 10 of those 14 games by double digits. Warriors center Andrew Bogut sat out with right knee tendinitis and is questionable here. Interesting fact: Dallas has played 10 straight games where it and the opponent have scored at least 100 points. The Mavs beat New Orleans 112-107 on Wednesday behind 26 points from Monta Ellis. He scored 13 of Dallas' final 15 points in the fourth quarter. Golden State has won three straight over Dallas for the first time since a five-game winning streak from 2006-07. Dallas has won 10 of the past 13 vs. the Warriors at home, although Golden State won the most recent meeting there late last season.
Key trends: The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their past five in Dallas. The "over/under" has gone under in five of the past six meetings.
Early lean: I'd be somewhat surprised if Bogut plays, and I believe this sets up well for Dallas to win outright -- including the early start. That generally benefits a home club.
Nets at Hornets (-3.5, 193.5)
Brooklyn hosted Philadelphia on Friday while Charlotte was in Memphis. Nets guard Joe Johnson was supposed to return Friday after missing two games with the flu. However, Kevin Garnett and Mirza Teletovic were questionable. Center Brook Lopez remains out. These teams split four meetings last year, each sweeping at home. Six Nets averaged in double figures last year vs. Charlotte, led by Deron Williams' 17.8 points. Al Jefferson dominated Brooklyn, averaging 21.7 points and 12.3 rebounds in three games. Kemba Walker played in all four and averaged 18.5 points and 6.0 assists.
Key trends: Charlotte has covered four of the past five meetings. The under is 7-0 in Brooklyn's past seven on the road.
Early lean: Even though the Hornets have by far the tougher game Friday, I like them and the under here.
Trail Blazers at Pacers (+4.5, 193)
Second of a back-to-back for both as the Blazers were in Chicago and the Pacers in Toronto. Indiana visited Portland on Dec. 4 and lost 88-82. LaMarcus Aldridge had 18 points and 13 rebounds, while Damian Lillard had 23 points. For Indiana, Rodney Stuckey led the way with 16 points. Both teams shot less than 40 percent from the field. The Pacers have won three straight home matchups in the series. Portland's last win in Indianapolis came on Dec. 9, 2009.
Key trends: Indiana has covered only one of its past six at home. The over is 6-0 in Indiana's past six playing on zero days of rest.
Early lean: Blazers and over.
Hawks at Magic (TBA)
It's the second of a back-to-back for both -- they played each other in Orlando on Friday night. So I'm not sure what to say about this game! The Hawks have outscored opponents by an average of 15.0 points during their nine-game winning streak entering Friday. Atlanta has won 12 of the past 14 with Orlando also entering Friday. Last year the Hawks were 1-1 in Orlando. The Magic are just 2-6 at home this season and have lost four straight there. Orlando center Nikola Vucevic was a game-time call for Friday and thus could be here.
Key trends: Atlanta has covered eight of its past 11 in Orlando. The under is 4-1 in the Magic's past five at home.
Early lean: Always hard to sweep a home-and-home so I like Orlando here presuming it loses Friday in Atlanta.
Clippers at Bucks (+5.5, 206.5)
Los Angeles was in Washington on Friday on a nine-game winning streak. The Bucks lost 114-101 in Orlando on Tuesday. O.J. Mayo had 18 points, and Giannis Antetokounmpo added 17 for Milwaukee, which has lost five of six. Milwaukee has lost its last five games against the Clippers. The Bucks' last win against the Clippers was on Valentine's Day in 2011 (102-78). Just three players who played in that game remain on their respective teams: the Clippers' Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan and the Bucks' Ersan Ilyasova. It's a bit of a homecoming for Clippers coach Doc Rivers as he starred at Marquette from 1980-83. He had his jersey retired in 2004 and is still on the school's Board of Trustees.
Key trends: The Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their past eight at home. The over is 8-0 in the Clippers' past eight Saturday games.
Early lean: Wizards should push Clips to the limit, so take the points here and go over.
Grizzlies at 76ers (+9.5, 198)
Memphis hosted Charlotte on Friday and Philadelphia was in Brooklyn. 76ers leading scorer Tony Wroten was questionable for Friday with a knee. The Grizzlies swept the series last season and have won three straight overall against Philly. They have won four in a row in the City of Brotherly Love. The Grizzlies averaged 110.0 points and shot 54.3 percent from the field in the two games last year, while Philadelphia averaged just 86.0 points on 40.9 percent shooting.
Key trends: The Sixers have covered six of their past seven in the second of a back-to-back. The Grizzlies have covered five straight in Philly.
Early lean: Grizz will win but won't care that much about the opponent, so take the points.
Nuggets at Rockets (TBA)
Denver ended a four-game losing streak Wednesday with a 102-82 rout of visiting Miami. Perhaps no team has been streakier this year than the Nuggets. They have lost six straight and four straight and won five in a row at one point. Denver saw the return of forward Kenneth Faried on Wednesday after he missed two with a minor injury. However, guard Nate Robinson, forward Danilo Gallinari and center JaVale McGee all sat out. The latter two have missed multiple games. They are all considered day-to-day. Houston won 113-109 in overtime on Thursday in Sacramento behind 44 points from James Harden. Dwight Howard missed his 11th straight game, but he is expected to return for this one barring a setback. Houston won the season series last year 2-1, winning both at home. The Rockets have won four straight overall vs. Denver in Houston.
Key trends: Denver has covered nine of the past 10 meetings. The over is 5-0 in the past five.
Early lean: Way too many intangibles here, but if Howard plays the Rockets should blow Denver out.
Pistons at Kings (-4.5, 195)
Detroit was in Phoenix on Friday trying to avoid a franchise record-tying 14th straight loss. Sacramento just isn't the same without DeMarcus Cousins, who remains out with a virus. The Kings lost their second straight Thursday, 113-109 in overtime to Houston. Sacramento committed 22 turnovers that led to 27 Houston points. The Kings are 2-6 without Cousins this year and 4-22 over the past three seasons. The Pistons swept Sacramento last season and have won three straight in the series.
Key trends: Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home. Detroit has covered six straight in Sacramento. The over is 6-1 in the Kings' past seven vs. the East.
Early lean: If Detroit wasn't playing Friday, I'd take the points, but go Kings and over.
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